Methodology for developing real-time motorway traffic risk identification models using individual-vehicle data

Most of existing motorway traffic safety studies using disaggregate traffic flow data aim at developing models for identifying real-time traffic risks by comparing pre-crash and non-crash conditions. One of serious shortcomings in those studies is that non-crash conditions are arbitrarily selected and hence, not representative, i.e. selected non-crash data might not be the right data comparable with pre-crash data; the non-crash/pre-crash ratio is arbitrarily decided and neglects the abundance of non-crash over pre-crash conditions; etc. Here, we present a methodology for developing a real-time MotorwaY Traffic Risk Identification Model (MyTRIM) using individual vehicle data, meteorological data, and crash data. Non-crash data are clustered into groups called traffic regimes. Thereafter, pre-crash data are classified into regimes to match with relevant non-crash data. Among totally eight traffic regimes obtained, four highly risky regimes were identified; three regime-based Risk Identification Models (RIM) with sufficient pre-crash data were developed. MyTRIM memorizes the latest risk evolution identified by RIM to predict near future risks. Traffic practitioners can decide MyTRIM’s memory size based on the trade-off between detection and false alarm rates. Decreasing the memory size from 5 to 1 precipitates the increase of detection rate from 65.0% to 100.0% and of false alarm rate from 0.21% to 3.68%. Moreover, critical factors in differentiating pre-crash and non-crash conditions are recognized and usable for developing preventive measures. MyTRIM can be used by practitioners in real-time as an independent tool to make online decision or integrated with existing traffic management systems.

Asymptotic minimax robust and misspecified Lorden quickest change detection for dependent stochastic processes

The quick detection of an abrupt unknown change in the conditional distribution of a dependent stochastic process has numerous applications. In this paper, we pose a minimax robust quickest change detection problem for cases where there is uncertainty about the post-change conditional distribution. Our minimax robust formulation is based on the popular Lorden criteria of optimal quickest change detection. Under a condition on the set of possible post-change distributions, we show that the widely known cumulative sum (CUSUM) rule is asymptotically minimax robust under our Lorden minimax robust formulation as a false alarm constraint becomes more strict. We also establish general asymptotic bounds on the detection delay of misspecified CUSUM rules (i.e. CUSUM rules that are designed with post- change distributions that differ from those of the observed sequence). We exploit these bounds to compare the delay performance of asymptotically minimax robust, asymptotically optimal, and other misspecified CUSUM rules. In simulation examples, we illustrate that asymptotically minimax robust CUSUM rules can provide better detection delay performance at greatly reduced computation effort compared to competing generalised likelihood ratio procedures.

Safety envelope for security

We present an approach for detecting sensor spoofing attacks on a cyber-physical system. Our approach consists of two steps. In the first step, we construct a safety envelope of the system. Under nominal conditions (that is, when there are no attacks), the system always stays inside its safety envelope. In the second step, we build an attack detector: a monitor that executes synchronously with the system and raises an alarm whenever the system state falls outside the safety envelope. We synthesize safety envelopes using a modified machine learning procedure applied on data collected from the system when it is not under attack. We present experimental results that show effectiveness of our approach, and also validate the several novel features that we introduced in our learning procedure.

Somewhere between haste and delay... Investigating the interactions of road users and pedestrians in a dynamic rail level crossing environment

There are currently 23,500 level crossings in Australia, broadly divided into one of two categories: active level crossings which are fully automatic and have boom barriers, alarm bells, flashing lights, and pedestrian gates; and passive level crossings, which are not automatic and aim to control road and pedestrianised walkways solely with stop and give way signs. Active level crossings are considered to be the gold standard for transport ergonomics when grade separation (i.e. constructing an over- or underpass) is not viable. In Australia, the current strategy is to annually upgrade passive level crossings with active controls but active crossings are also associated with traffic congestion, largely as a result of extended closure times. The percentage of time level crossings are closed to road vehicles during peak periods increases with the rise in the frequency of train services. The popular perception appears to be that once a level crossing is upgraded, one is free to wipe their hands and consider the job done. However, there may also be environments where active protection is not enough, but where the setting may not justify the capital costs of grade separation. Indeed, the associated congestion and traffic delay could compromise safety by contributing to the risk taking behaviour by motorists and pedestrians. In these environments it is important to understand what human factor issues are present and ask the question of whether a one size fits all solution is indeed the most ergonomically sound solution for today’s transport needs.

Sustainable forest management : ecologically sound and socially accepted

This dissertation explored the ecological dimension of ecologically sustainable forest management in boreal forests, and factors of the socio-cultural dimension that affect how the concept of ecologically sustainable forest management is defined. My approach was problem-oriented and generalistic-holistic. I examined associations between the abundances of wildlife groups (grouse, large predators, small predators, ungulates) and Siberian flying squirrels, and their co-occurrence with tree structural characteristics at the regional level. The trade-offs between ecological, social and economic sustainability in forestry were explored at the regional scale. I identified a potential 'shopping basket' of regional indicators for ecologically sustainable forest management, combining the relative abundance of Siberian flying squirrels, a wildlife richness index (WRI) for grouse, diversity indices of saw-timber trees, tree age classes and the proportion of old-growth (> 120 yr) forests. I suggest that the close association between forestry activity, the proportion of young forests (< 40 yr) and a WRI for small predators can be considered as potential 'alarm bells' for regions in which the creation of trade-offs (negative relationships) between economic and ecological components of sustainable forestry is ongoing. Explorative analyses revealed negative relationships between forestry activity and a WRI of 16 game species, the WRI for grouse and tree age diversity. Socially sustainable communities compete less intensively with ecological components of forests than communities where forestry is important. Interestingly, forest ownership types (farmers, other private forest owners, the forestry industry, the State) correlated significantly with the co-occurrence of flying squirrels, grouse and diverse forest structural characteristics rather than, for instance, with the total number of protection areas, suggesting that private forest ownership can lead to increased ecological sustainability. I examined forest actors’ argumentation to identify characteristics that affect the interpretation of ecologically sustainable forest management. Four argumentation frame types were constructed: information, work, experience and own position based. These differed in terms of their emphasis on external experts or own experiences. The closer ecologically sustainable forest management is to the forest actor’s daily life, the more profiled policy tools (counselling, learning through experiences) are needed to guide management behaviour to become more ecologically sound. I illustrated that forest actors interpret, use and understand information through meaningful framing. I analysed the extent to which ecological research information has been perceived in the Forestry Development Centre TAPIO’s recommendations and revised PEFC Finland criteria. We noticed that the political value for decaying wood was much lower in PEFC Finland critera (4 m3) than could be expected as a socially acceptable level (9 m3) or ecologically sound (10-20 m3). I consider it important for scientists to join political discourses and become involved in policy making concerning sustainable forest management to learn to present their results in a way that is reasonable from the user’s perspective.

Vocalizations of wild Asian elephants (Elephas maximus): Structural classification and social context

Elephants use vocalizations for both long and short distance communication. Whereas the acoustic repertoire of the African elephant (Loxodonta africana) has been extensively studied in its savannah habitat, very little is known about the structure and social context of the vocalizations of the Asian elephant (Elephas maximus), which is mostly found in forests. In this study, the vocal repertoire of wild Asian elephants in southern India was examined. The calls could be classified into four mutually exclusive categories, namely, trumpets, chirps, roars, and rumbles, based on quantitative analyses of their spectral and temporal features. One of the call types, the rumble, exhibited high structural diversity, particularly in the direction and extent of frequency modulation of calls. Juveniles produced three of the four call types, including trumpets, roars, and rumbles, in the context of play and distress. Adults produced trumpets and roars in the context of disturbance, aggression, and play. Chirps were typically produced in situations of confusion and alarm. Rumbles were used for contact calling within and among herds, by matriarchs to assemble the herd, in close-range social interactions, and during disturbance and aggression. Spectral and temporal features of the four call types were similar between Asian and African elephants.

Puolustuskykyinen valtio vai Ruotsin hälytyskello? : Suomen sotilasstrateginen asema kylmän sodan alkuvuosien asiantuntija-arvioissa

The doctoral thesis deals with Finnish and foreign expert s analyses of Finland s military strategic position and defence capability, dating back to the early years of the Cold War. Finland s military high command prepared assessments of the country s strategic position and of the capability of the Defence Forces as grounds for defence planning. Since Finland was located on the Cold War dividing line, the foreign powers were also monitoring the development of Finland s situation. The research carried out had access to the armed forces internal assessments, as well as to analyses prepared by the military intelligence services of Sweden, Britain and the United States. One of the working hypotheses was that after the WWII the ability military leadership to estimate the security political needs of the country and the organisation of its defence was severely weakened so that the dangers of the international development were not perceived and the gradual erosion of defence capability was partly unnoticed. This hypothesis proved to be wrong. Even if the Finnish military intelligence was much weaker than during the war, it was able to provide the military leadership with information of the international military development for the most part. The military leadership was also fully aware of the weakening of the defence capability of the country. They faced the difficult task of making the country s political leadership, i.e. President Paasikivi and the government, also understand the gravity of the situation. Only in the last years of his term in office Paasikivi started to believe the warnings of the military. According to another hypothesis, outside observers considered the Finnish armed forces to primarily act as reinforcements for the Soviet Red Army, and they believed that, in the event of a full-scale war, the Finns would not have been able or even willing to resist a Soviet invasion of Sweden and Norway through Finland. The study confirmed that this was approximately the view the Swedes, the British and the Americans had of the Finnish forces. Western and Swedish intelligence assessments did not show confidence in Finland s defence ability and the country was regarded almost as a Soviet satellite. Finland s strategic position was, however, considered slightly different from that of the Soviet-occupied Eastern European countries. Finland had been forced to become part of the Soviet sphere of interest and security system and this was sealed by the Finno-Soviet Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation, and Mutual Assistance in 1948. Finland had little importance to the military interests of the Western powers. In Sweden s defence planning, however, Finland played a significant role as an alarm bell of a possible Soviet surprise attack, as well as defensive frontline and buffer zone.

Pressure sensor based tsunami detection system: A laboratory study

In this paper, we present the study and implementation of a low-cost system to detect the occurrences of tsunamis at significantly smaller laboratory scale. The implementation is easily scalable for real-time deployment. Information reported in this paper includes the experimentally recorded response from the pressure sensor giving an indication as well as an alarm at remote place for the detection of water turbulence similar to the case of tsunami. It has been found that the system developed works very well in the laboratory scale.

Vocal communication of wild bonnet macaques (Macaca radiata)

Field observations and spectrographic analyses of sound recordings of South Indian bonnet macaques revealed a vocal repertoire of at least 25 basic patterns. The repertoire consists of well separated sound classes and acoustic categories connected by structural intergradation. Besides structural variations within and between different elements of the repertoire, the vocal system ofMacaca radiata is characterized by regular combinations of particular basic patterns. These combinations occurred not only between calls of similar structure and function but also between calls usually emitted in entirely different social contexts. According to the qualitative analysis, sex-specific asymmetries of the vocal behaviour were less pronounced than age-dependent characteristics. The comparison of clear call vocalizations ofMacaca radiata andM. fuscata revealed significant species-specific differences on the structural and the behavioural level. Evaluations of the structural features of alarm calls of various macaque species imply marked differences between members of thefascicularis group andsinica group on one hand and thesilenus group andarctoides

Narrowband Detection of Acoustic Source in Shallow Ocean using Vector Sensor Array

The problem of narrowband CFAR (constant false alarm rate) detection of an acoustic source at an unknown location in a range-independent shallow ocean is considered. If a target is present, the received signal vector at an array of N sensors belongs to an M-dimensional subspace if N exceeds the number of propagating modes M in the ocean. A subspace detection method which utilises the knowledge of the signal subspace to enhance the detector performance is presented in thisMpaper. It is shown that, for a given number of sensors N, the performance of a detector using a vector sensor array is significantly better than that using a scalar sensor array. If a target is detected, the detector using a vector sensor array also provides a concurrent coarse estimate of the bearing of the target.

Actuator fault detection and isolation in linear systems

A scheme for the detection and isolation of actuator faults in linear systems is proposed. A bank of unknown input observers is constructed to generate residual signals which will deviate in characteristic ways in the presence of actuator faults. Residual signals are unaffected by the unknown inputs acting on the system and this decreases the false alarm and miss probabilities. The results are illustrated through a simulation study of actuator fault detection and isolation in a pilot plant doubleeffect evaporator.

Bayesian Decentralized Spectrum Sensing in Cognitive Radio Networks

This paper considers the problem of spectrum sensing, i.e., the detection of whether or not a primary user is transmitting data by a cognitive radio. The Bayesian framework is adopted, with the performance measure being the probability of detection error. A decentralized setup, where N sensors use M observations each to arrive at individual decisions that are combined at a fusion center to form the overall decision is considered. The unknown fading channel between the primary sensor and the cognitive radios makes the individual decision rule computationally complex, hence, a generalized likelihood ratio test (GLRT)-based approach is adopted. Analysis of the probabilities of false alarm and miss detection of the proposed method reveals that the error exponent with respect to M is zero. Also, the fusion of N individual decisions offers a diversity advantage, similar to diversity reception in communication systems, and a tight bound on the error exponent is presented. Through an analysis in the low power regime, the number of observations needed as a function of received power, to achieve a given probability of error is determined. Monte-Carlo simulations confirm the accuracy of the analysis.

Tunable Locally-Optimal Geographical Forwarding in Wireless Sensor Networks with Sleep-Wake Cycling Nodes

We consider a wireless sensor network whose main function is to detect certain infrequent alarm events, and to forward alarm packets to a base station, using geographical forwarding. The nodes know their locations, and they sleep-wake cycle, waking up periodically but not synchronously. In this situation, when a node has a packet to forward to the sink, there is a trade-off between how long this node waits for a suitable neighbor to wake up and the progress the packet makes towards the sink once it is forwarded to this neighbor. Hence, in choosing a relay node, we consider the problem of minimizing average delay subject to a constraint on the average progress. By constraint relaxation, we formulate this next hop relay selection problem as a Markov decision process (MDP). The exact optimal solution (BF (Best Forward)) can be found, but is computationally intensive. Next, we consider a mathematically simplified model for which the optimal policy (SF (Simplified Forward)) turns out to be a simple one-step-look-ahead rule. Simulations show that SF is very close in performance to BF, even for reasonably small node density. We then study the end-to-end performance of SF in comparison with two extremal policies: Max Forward (MF) and First Forward (FF), and an end-to-end delay minimising policy proposed by Kim et al. 1]. We find that, with appropriate choice of one hop average progress constraint, SF can be tuned to provide a favorable trade-off between end-to-end packet delay and the number of hops in the forwarding path.

Link failure detection for maintaining session continuity in packet data networks

A link failure in the path of a virtual circuit in a packet data network will lead to premature disconnection of the circuit by the end-points. A soft failure will result in degraded throughput over the virtual circuit. If these failures can be detected quickly and reliably, then appropriate rerouteing strategies can automatically reroute the virtual circuits that use the failed facility. In this paper, we develop a methodology for analysing and designing failure detection schemes for digital facilities. Based on errored second data, we develop a Markov model for the error and failure behaviour of a T1 trunk. The performance of a detection scheme is characterized by its false alarm probability and the detection delay. Using the Markov model, we analyse the performance of detection schemes that use physical layer or link layer information. The schemes basically rely upon detecting the occurrence of severely errored seconds (SESs). A failure is declared when a counter, that is driven by the occurrence of SESs, reaches a certain threshold.For hard failures, the design problem reduces to a proper choice;of the threshold at which failure is declared, and on the connection reattempt parameters of the virtual circuit end-point session recovery procedures. For soft failures, the performance of a detection scheme depends, in addition, on how long and how frequent the error bursts are in a given failure mode. We also propose and analyse a novel Level 2 detection scheme that relies only upon anomalies observable at Level 2, i.e. CRC failures and idle-fill flag errors. Our results suggest that Level 2 schemes that perform as well as Level 1 schemes are possible.

CUSUM Based Distributed Detection in WSNs

We are concerned with the situation in which a wireless sensor network is deployed in a region, for the purpose of detecting an event occurring at a random time and at a random location. The sensor nodes periodically sample their environment (e.g., for acoustic energy),process the observations (in our case, using a CUSUM-based algorithm) and send a local decision (which is binary in nature) to the fusion centre. The fusion centre collects these local decisions and uses a fusion rule to process the sensors’ local decisions and infer the state of nature, i.e., if an event has occurred or not. Our main contribution is in analyzing two local detection rules in combination with a simple fusion rule. The local detection algorithms are based on the nonparametric CUSUMprocedure from sequential statistics. We also propose two ways to operate the local detectors after an alarm. These alternatives when combined in various ways yield several approaches. Our contribution is to provide analytical techniques to calculate false alarm measures, by the use of which the local detector thresholds can be set. Simulation results are provided to evaluate the accuracy of our analysis. As an illustration we provide a design example. We also use simulations to compare the detection delays incurred in these algorithms.