941 resultados para AHP - Analytic Hierarchy Proces
Resumo:
Wind power is a low-carbon energy production form that reduces the dependence of society on fossil fuels. Finland has adopted wind energy production into its climate change mitigation policy, and that has lead to changes in legislation, guidelines, regional wind power areas allocation and establishing a feed-in tariff. Wind power production has indeed boosted in Finland after two decades of relatively slow growth, for instance from 2010 to 2011 wind energy production increased with 64 %, but there is still a long way to the national goal of 6 TWh by 2020. This thesis introduces a GIS-based decision-support methodology for the preliminary identification of suitable areas for wind energy production including estimation of their level of risk. The goal of this study was to define the least risky places for wind energy development within Keminsaari municipality in Southwest Finland. Spatial multicriteria decision analysis (SMCDA) has been used for searching suitable wind power areas along with many other location-allocation problems. SMCDA scrutinizes complex ill-structured decision problems in GIS environment using constraints and evaluation criteria, which are aggregated using weighted linear combination (WLC). Weights for the evaluation criteria were acquired using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) with nine expert interviews. Subsequently, feasible alternatives were ranked in order to provide a recommendation and finally, a sensitivity analysis was conducted for the determination of recommendation robustness. The first study aim was to scrutinize the suitability and necessity of existing data for this SMCDA study. Most of the available data sets were of sufficient resolution and quality. Input data necessity was evaluated qualitatively for each data set based on e.g. constraint coverage and attribute weights. Attribute quality was estimated mainly qualitatively by attribute comprehensiveness, operationality, measurability, completeness, decomposability, minimality and redundancy. The most significant quality issue was redundancy as interdependencies are not tolerated by WLC and AHP does not include measures to detect them. The third aim was to define the least risky areas for wind power development within the study area. The two highest ranking areas were Nordan-Lvble and Pvalsby followed by Helgeboda, Degerdal, Pungble, Bjrkboda, and stan-Labble. The fourth aim was to assess the recommendation reliability, and the top-ranking two areas proved robust whereas the other ones were more sensitive.
Resumo:
Linguistic modelling is a rather new branch of mathematics that is still undergoing rapid development. It is closely related to fuzzy set theory and fuzzy logic, but knowledge and experience from other fields of mathematics, as well as other fields of science including linguistics and behavioral sciences, is also necessary to build appropriate mathematical models. This topic has received considerable attention as it provides tools for mathematical representation of the most common means of human communication - natural language. Adding a natural language level to mathematical models can provide an interface between the mathematical representation of the modelled system and the user of the model - one that is sufficiently easy to use and understand, but yet conveys all the information necessary to avoid misinterpretations. It is, however, not a trivial task and the link between the linguistic and computational level of such models has to be established and maintained properly during the whole modelling process. In this thesis, we focus on the relationship between the linguistic and the mathematical level of decision support models. We discuss several important issues concerning the mathematical representation of meaning of linguistic expressions, their transformation into the language of mathematics and the retranslation of mathematical outputs back into natural language. In the first part of the thesis, our view of the linguistic modelling for decision support is presented and the main guidelines for building linguistic models for real-life decision support that are the basis of our modeling methodology are outlined. From the theoretical point of view, the issues of representation of meaning of linguistic terms, computations with these representations and the retranslation process back into the linguistic level (linguistic approximation) are studied in this part of the thesis. We focus on the reasonability of operations with the meanings of linguistic terms, the correspondence of the linguistic and mathematical level of the models and on proper presentation of appropriate outputs. We also discuss several issues concerning the ethical aspects of decision support - particularly the loss of meaning due to the transformation of mathematical outputs into natural language and the issue or responsibility for the final decisions. In the second part several case studies of real-life problems are presented. These provide background and necessary context and motivation for the mathematical results and models presented in this part. A linguistic decision support model for disaster management is presented here formulated as a fuzzy linear programming problem and a heuristic solution to it is proposed. Uncertainty of outputs, expert knowledge concerning disaster response practice and the necessity of obtaining outputs that are easy to interpret (and available in very short time) are reflected in the design of the model. Saatys analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is considered in two case studies - first in the context of the evaluation of works of art, where a weak consistency condition is introduced and an adaptation of AHP for large matrices of preference intensities is presented. The second AHP case-study deals with the fuzzified version of AHP and its use for evaluation purposes particularly the integration of peer-review into the evaluation of R&D outputs is considered. In the context of HR management, we present a fuzzy rule based evaluation model (academic faculty evaluation is considered) constructed to provide outputs that do not require linguistic approximation and are easily transformed into graphical information. This is achieved by designing a specific form of fuzzy inference. Finally the last case study is from the area of humanities - psychological diagnostics is considered and a linguistic fuzzy model for the interpretation of outputs of multidimensional questionnaires is suggested. The issue of the quality of data in mathematical classification models is also studied here. A modification of the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) method is presented to reflect variable quality of data instances in the validation set during classifier performance assessment. Twelve publications on which the author participated are appended as a third part of this thesis. These summarize the mathematical results and provide a closer insight into the issues of the practicalapplications that are considered in the second part of the thesis.
Resumo:
The aim of this Masters thesis is to find a method for classifying spare part criticality in the case company. Several approaches exist for criticality classification of spare parts. The practical problem in this thesis is the lack of a generic analysis method for classifying spare parts of proprietary equipment of the case company. In order to find a classification method, a literature review of various analysis methods is required. The requirements of the case company also have to be recognized. This is achieved by consulting professionals in the company. The literature review states that the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) combined with decision tree models is a common method for classifying spare parts in academic literature. Most of the literature discusses spare part criticality in stock holding perspective. This is relevant perspective also for a customer orientated original equipment manufacturer (OEM), as the case company. A decision tree model is developed for classifying spare parts. The decision tree classifies spare parts into five criticality classes according to five criteria. The criteria are: safety risk, availability risk, functional criticality, predictability of failure and probability of failure. The criticality classes describe the level of criticality from non-critical to highly critical. The method is verified for classifying spare parts of a full deposit stripping machine. The classification can be utilized as a generic model for recognizing critical spare parts of other similar equipment, according to which spare part recommendations can be created. Purchase price of an item and equipment criticality were found to have no effect on spare part criticality in this context. Decision tree is recognized as the most suitable method for classifying spare part criticality in the company.
Resumo:
Tm diplomity on tehty case yritykselle nimelt yritys X. Yritys X valmistaa alueelliseen lmmn- ja kyttveden jakamiseen tarkoitettuja eristettyj muoviputkia. Viime vuosina yrityksen kilpailijat ovat onnistuneet kehittmn omien vastaavien tuotteidensa ominaisuuksia, mink seurauksena yritys X:n asema markkinoilla on heikentynyt. Vastauksena kiristyneeseen markkinatilanteeseen yritys X on kehittnyt kolme uutta potentiaalista tuotekonseptia, joista yht suunnitellaan kehitettvksi nykyisen tuotteen rinnalle. Uusien tuotekonseptien keskininen vertailu on kuitenkin osoittautunut haasteelliseksi. Tmn tyn ptavoitteena on hydynt analyyttista hierarkiaprosessia ja antaa sen perusteella suositus parhaan tuotekonseptin valinnasta. Ty sislt kirjallisen osion, jossa kydn lpi tuotekehitystoimintaa yleisesti sek esitelln analyyttisen hierarkiaprosessin hydyntminen yksityiskohtaisesti. Tyn jlkimmisess osiossa paneudutaan tarkemmin kytnnn ongelmaan ja esitelln kuinka analyyttista hierarkiaprosessia on hydynnetty yritys X:n tapauksessa. Keskeisin tuloksina tyn lopussa esitelln analyyttisen hierarkiaprosessin avulla mritetyt ptskriteerien painoarvot, vaihtoehtojen saamat kokonaispainoarvot sek annetaan suositus uuden tuotekonseptin valinnasta.
Resumo:
Ralises aux chelles internationales et nationales, les tudes de vulnrabilit aux changements et la variabilit climatiques sont peu pertinentes dans un processus de prise de dcisions des chelles gographiques plus petites qui reprsentent les lieux dimplantation des stratgies de rponses envisages. Les tudes de vulnrabilit aux changements et la variabilit climatiques des chelles gographiques relativement petites dans le secteur agricole sont gnralement rares, voire inexistantes au Canada, notamment au Qubec. Dans le souci de combler ce vide et de favoriser un processus dcisionnel plus clair lchelle de la ferme, cette tude cherchait principalement dresser un portrait de lvolution de la vulnrabilit des fermes productrices de mas-grain des rgions de Montrgie-Ouest et du Lac-St-Jean-Est aux changements et la variabilit climatiques dans un contexte de multiples sources de pression. Une mthodologie gnrale constitue d'une valuation de la vulnrabilit globale partir dune combinaison de profils de vulnrabilit aux conditions climatiques et socio-conomiques a t adopte. Pour la priode de rfrence (1985-2005), les profils de vulnrabilit ont t dresss laide danalyses des coefficients de variation des sries temporelles de rendements et de superficies en mas-grain. Au moyen de mthodes ethnographiques associes une technique danalyse multicritre, le Processus danalyse hirarchique (PAH), des scnarios dindicateurs de capacit adaptative du secteur agricole susmentionn ont t dvelopps pour la priode de rfrence. Ceux-ci ont ensuite servi de point de dpart dans llaboration des indicateurs de capacit de rponses des producteurs agricoles pour la priode future 2010-2039. Pour celle-ci, les deux profils de vulnrabilit sont issus dune simplification du cadre thorique de Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) relatif aux principales composantes du concept de vulnrabilit. Pour la dimension sensibilit du secteur des fermes productrices de mas-grain des deux rgions agricoles aux conditions climatiques, une srie de donnes de rendements a t simule pour la priode future. Ces simulations ont t ralises laide dun couplage de cinq scnarios climatiques et du modle de culture CERES-Maize de Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT), version 4.0.2.0. En ce qui concerne lvaluation de la capacit adaptative au cours de la priode future, la construction des scnarios dindicateurs de cette composante a t effectue selon linfluence potentielle des grandes orientations conomiques et environnementales considres dans llaboration des lignes directrices des deux familles dmissions de gaz effet de serre (GES) A2 et A1B. Lapplication de la dmarche mthodologique pralablement mentionne a conduit aux principaux rsultats suivants. Au cours de la priode de rfrence, la rgion agricole du Lac-St-Jean-Est semblait tre plus vulnrable aux conditions climatiques que celle de Montrgie-Ouest. En effet, le coefficient de variation des rendements du mas-grain pour la rgion du Lac-St-Jean-Est tait valu 0,35; tandis que celui pour la rgion de Montrgie-Ouest ntait que de 0,23. Toutefois, par rapport aux conditions socio-conomiques, la rgion de Montrgie-Ouest affichait une vulnrabilit plus leve que celle du Lac-St-Jean-Est. Les valeurs des coefficients de variation pour les superficies en mas-grain au cours de la priode de rfrence pour la Montrgie-Ouest et le Lac-St-Jean-Est taient de 0,66 et 0,48, respectivement. Au cours de la priode future 2010-2039, la rgion du Lac-St-Jean-Est serait, dans lensemble, toujours plus vulnrable aux conditions climatiques que celle de Montrgie-Ouest. Les valeurs moyennes des coefficients de variation pour les rendements agricoles anticips fluctuent entre 0,21 et 0,25 pour la rgion de Montrgie-Ouest et entre 0,31 et 0,50 pour la rgion du Lac-St-Jean-Est. Nanmoins, en matire de vulnrabilit future aux conditions socio-conomiques, la position relative des deux rgions serait fonction du scnario de capacit adaptative considr. Avec les orientations conomiques et environnementales considres dans llaboration des lignes directrices de la famille dmission de GES A2, les indicateurs de capacit adaptative du secteur ltude seraient respectivement de 0,13 et 0,08 pour la Montrgie-Ouest et le Lac-St-Jean-Est. Dautre part, en considrant les lignes directrices de la famille dmission de GES A1B, la rgion agricole du Lac-St-Jean-Est aurait une capacit adaptative lgrement suprieure (0,07) celle de la Montrgie-Ouest (0,06). De faon gnrale, au cours de la priode future, la rgion du Lac-St-Jean-Est devrait possder une vulnrabilit globale plus leve que la rgion de Montrgie-Ouest. Cette situation sexpliquerait principalement par une plus grande vulnrabilit de la rgion du Lac-St-Jean-Est aux conditions climatiques. Les rsultats de cette tude doivent tre apprcis dans le contexte des postulats considrs, de la mthodologie suivie et des spcificits des deux rgions agricoles examines. Essentiellement, avec ladoption dune dmarche mthodologique simple, cette tude a rvl les caractristiques dynamique et relative du concept de vulnrabilit, limportance de lchelle gographique et de la prise en compte dautres sources de pression et surtout de la considration dune approche contraire celle du agriculteur rfractaire aux changements dans les travaux dvaluation de ce concept dans le secteur agricole. Finalement, elle a aussi prsent plusieurs pistes de recherche susceptibles de contribuer une meilleure valuation de la vulnrabilit des agriculteurs aux changements climatiques dans un contexte de multiples sources de pression.
Resumo:
This paper presents a procedure that allows us to determine the preference structures (PS) associated to each of the different groups of actors that can be identified in a group decision making problem with a large number of individuals. To that end, it makes use of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) (Saaty, 1980) as the technique to solve discrete multicriteria decision making problems. This technique permits the resolution of multicriteria, multienvironment and multiactor problems in which subjective aspects and uncertainty have been incorporated into the model, constructing ratio scales corresponding to the priorities relative to the elements being compared, normalised in a distributive manner (wi = 1). On the basis of the individuals priorities we identify different clusters for the decision makers and, for each of these, the associated preference structure using, to that end, tools analogous to those of Multidimensional Scaling. The resulting PS will be employed to extract knowledge for the subsequent negotiation processes and, should it be necessary, to determine the relative importance of the alternatives being compared using anyone of the existing procedures
Resumo:
El WACC o Coste Medio Ponderado de Capital es la tasa a la que se deben descontar los flujos para evaluar un proyecto o empresa. Para calcular esta tasa es necesario determinar el costo de la deuda y el costo de los recursos propios de la compaa; el costo de la deuda es la tasa actual del mercado que la empresa est pagando por su deuda, sin embargo el costo de los recursos propios podra ser difcil y ms complejo de estimar ya que no existe un costo explcito. En este trabajo se presenta un panorama de las teoras propuestas a lo largo de la historia para calcular el costo de los recursos propios. Como caso particular, se estimar el costo de los recursos propios sin apalancamiento financiero de seis empresas francesas que no cotizan en bolsa y pertenecientes al sector de Servicios a la Persona (SAP). Para lograr lo anterior, se utilizar el Proceso de Anlisis Jerrquico (AHP) y el Modelo de Valoracin del Precio de los Activos Financieros (CAPM) con base en lo presentado por Martha Pachn (2013) en Modelo alternativo para calcular el costo de los recursos propios.
Resumo:
Con la creciente popularidad de las soluciones de IT como factor clave para aumentar la competitividad y la creacin de valor para las empresas, la necesidad de invertir en proyectos de IT se incrementa considerablemente. La limitacin de los recursos como un obstculo para invertir ha obligado a las empresas a buscar metodologas para seleccionar y priorizar proyectos, asegurndose de que las decisiones que se toman son aquellas que van alineadas con las estrategias corporativas para asegurar la creacin de valor y la maximizacin de los beneficios. Esta tesis proporciona los fundamentos para la implementacin del Portafolio de direccin de Proyectos de IT (IT PPM) como una metodologa eficaz para la gestin de proyectos basados en IT, y una herramienta para proporcionar criterios claros para los directores ejecutivos para la toma de decisiones. El documento proporciona la informacin acerca de cmo implementar el IT PPM en siete pasos, el anlisis de los procesos y las funciones necesarias para su ejecucin exitosa. Adems, proporciona diferentes mtodos y criterios para la seleccin y priorizacin de proyectos. Despus de la parte terica donde se describe el IT PPM, la tesis aporta un anlisis del estudio de caso de una empresa farmacutica. La empresa ya cuenta con un departamento de gestin de proyectos, pero se encontr la necesidad de implementar el IT PPM debido a su amplia cobertura de procesos End-to-End en Proyectos de IT, y la manera de asegurar la maximizacin de los beneficios. Con la investigacin terica y el anlisis del estudio de caso, la tesis concluye con una definicin prctica de un modelo aproximado IT PPM como una recomendacin para su implementacin en el Departamento de Gestin de Proyectos.
Resumo:
The purpose of this paper is to present two multi-criteria decision-making models, including an Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) model and an Analytic Network Process (ANP) model for the assessment of deconstruction plans and to make a comparison between the two models with an experimental case study. Deconstruction planning is under pressure to reduce operation costs, adverse environmental impacts and duration, in the meanwhile to improve productivity and safety in accordance with structure characteristics, site conditions and past experiences. To achieve these targets in deconstruction projects, there is an impending need to develop a formal procedure for contractors to select a most appropriate deconstruction plan. Because numbers of factors influence the selection of deconstruction techniques, engineers definitely need effective tools to conduct the selection process. In this regard, multi-criteria decision-making methods such as AHP have been adopted to effectively support deconstruction technique selection in previous researches. in which it has been proved that AHP method can help decision-makers to make informed decisions on deconstruction technique selection based on a sound technical framework. In this paper, the authors present the application and comparison of two decision-making models including the AHP model and the ANP model for deconstruction plan assessment. The paper concludes that both AHP and ANP are viable and capable tools for deconstruction plan assessment under the same set of evaluation criteria. However, although the ANP can measure relationship among selection criteria and their sub-criteria, which is normally ignored in the AHP, the authors also indicate that whether the ANP model can provide a more accurate result should be examined in further research.
Resumo:
This paper identifies the indicators of energy efficiency assessment in residential building in China through a wide literature review. Indicators are derived from three main sources: 1) The existing building assessment methods; 2)The existing Chinese standards and technology codes in building energy efficiency; 3)Academia research. As a result, we proposed an indicator list by refining the indicators in the above sources. Identified indicators are weighted by the group analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method. Group AHP method is implemented following key steps: Step 1: Experienced experts are selected to form a group; Step 2: A survey is implemented to collect the individual judgments on the importance of indicators in the group; Step 3: Members judgments are synthesized to the group judgments; Step 4: Indicators are weighted by AHP on the group judgments; Step 5: Investigation of consistency estimation shows that the consistency of the judgment matrix is accepted. We believe that the weighted indicators in this paper will provide important references to building energy efficiency assessment.
Resumo:
This paper examines the extent to which the valuation of partial interests in private property vehicles should be closely aligned to the valuation of the underlying assets. A sample of vehicle managers and investors replied to a questionnaire on the qualities of private property vehicles relative to direct property investment. Applying the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) technique the relative importance of the various advantages and disadvantages of investment in private property vehicles relative to acquisition of the underlying assets are assessed. The results suggest that the main drivers of the growth of the this sector have been the ability for certain categories of investor to acquire interests in assets that are normally inaccessible due to the amount of specific risk. Additionally, investors have been attracted by the ability to outsource asset management in a manner that minimises perceived agency problems. It is concluded that deviations from NAV should be expected given that investment in private property vehicles differs from investment in the underlying assets in terms of liquidity, management structures, lot size, financial structure inter alia. However, reliably appraising the pricing implications of these variations is likely to be extremely difficult due to the lack of secondary market trading and vehicle heterogeneity.
Resumo:
The adaptive thermal comfort theory considers people as active rather than passive recipients in response to ambient physical thermal stimuli, in contrast with conventional, heat-balance-based, thermal comfort theory. Occupants actively interact with the environments they occupy by means of utilizing adaptations in terms of physiological, behavioural and psychological dimensions to achieve real world thermal comfort. This paper introduces a method of quantifying the physiological, behavioural and psychological portions of the adaptation process by using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) based on the case studies conducted in the UK and China. Apart from three categories of adaptations which are viewed as criteria, six possible alternatives are considered: physiological indices/health status, the indoor environment, the outdoor environment, personal physical factors, environmental control and thermal expectation. With the AHP technique, all the above-mentioned criteria, factors and corresponding elements are arranged in a hierarchy tree and quantified by using a series of pair-wise judgements. A sensitivity analysis is carried out to improve the quality of these results. The proposed quantitative weighting method provides researchers with opportunities to better understand the adaptive mechanisms and reveal the significance of each category for the achievement of adaptive thermal comfort.
Resumo:
A justificativa de investimentos em Tecnologia da Informao (TI) um processo de deciso estratgico. Contudo, muitos tomadores de deciso, dada a complexidade dos problemas, acabam por reduzi-lo a um nico critrio, normalmente monetrio, ou a utilizar critrios mais facilmente mensurveis, em detrimento daqueles relacionados a possveis benefcios estratgicos ligados TI. Esse fato pode ser associado falta de instrumentos de apoio deciso com habilidade de capturar todos os mltiplos aspectos envolvidos na justificativa de investimentos em TI. A Pesquisa Operacional pode auxiliar esse processo atravs do desenvolvimento de modelos multicriteriais, visando contemplar, conjuntamente, os aspectos tangveis e intangveis normalmente associados a esse tipo de investimento. Nesse sentido, este trabalho apresenta o desenvolvimento de um modelo de deciso multicriterial para a justificativa de investimentos em TI. A implementao do modelo foi realizada utilizando-se o mtodo AHP (do ingls, Analytic Hierarchy Process), atravs do software Expert Choice. O modelo foi validado atravs da sua submisso a vinte especialistas da rea e atravs da sua aplicao em problemas de deciso. Os resultados obtidos na validao comprovam a generalidade e o potencial do modelo como ferramenta de deciso para o processo de justificativa de investimentos em TI.
Resumo:
Uma das formas de acesso inovao tecnolgica a pesquisa e desenvolvimento (P&D) de novos produtos. Entre projetos de P&D propostos, a empresa precisa selecionar aqueles em que vai realizar investimentos. Esta dissertao do tipo "proposta de planos ou programas", e analisa a seleo de projetos de P&D. Muitos gerentes de P&D no acreditam que os mtodos disponveis para seleo de projetos melhorem a qualidade das suas decises. Algumas das fraquezas identificadas em mtodos de seleo de projetos so o tratamento inadequado de mltiplos critrios, s vezes interdependentes, o tratamento inadequado do risco e da incerteza, a dificuldade em reconhecer e tratar aspectos no-monetrios, e a percepo pelos gerentes de P&D que os modelos so desnecessariamente difceis de entender e utilizar. O objetivo deste estudo analisar os benefcios proporcionados pela utilizao da teoria de opes reais, do alinhamento dos projetos de P&D estratgia da empresa e do mtodo de apoio deciso Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) para o processo de seleo de projetos de P&D em empresas do setor eltrico brasileiro, e em especial ser analisado o caso da Eletrosul. A teoria de opes reais e o alinhamento com a estratgia da empresa proporcionam uma considervel ampliao da viso gerencial necessria para decidir quais projetos devem ser executados. A anlise dos projetos luz da estratgia da empresa facilita a efetiva implantao dela, conduz a uma reflexo sobre a estratgia e possibilita que universidades e centros de pesquisa alinhem suas propostas a ela. O mtodo AHP mostrou-se adequado para apoiar o processo de seleo de projetos de P&D, subdividindo uma deciso complexa em comparaes duas a duas e a seguir sintetizando-as para chegar a um resultado sobre a deciso complexa. A facilidade de compreenso e a transparncia do funcionamento so pontos fortes do mtodo AHP.
