Combining global climate and regional landscape models to improve prediction of invasion risk

Aim
It is widely acknowledged that species distributions result from a variety of biotic and abiotic factors operating at different spatial scales. Here, we aimed to (1) determine the extent to which global climate niche models (CNMs) can be improved by the addition of fine-scale regional data; (2) examine climatic and environmental factors influencing the range of 15 invasive aquatic plant species; and (3) provide a case study for the use of such models in invasion management on an island.

Location
Global, with a case study of species invasions in Ireland.

Methods
Climate niche models of global extent (including climate only) and regional environmental niche models (with additional factors such as human influence, land use and soil characteristics) were generated using maxent for 15 invasive aquatic plants. The performance of these models within the invaded range of the study species in Ireland was assessed, and potential hotspots of invasion suitability were determined. Models were projected forward up to 2080 based on two climate scenarios.

Results
While climate variables are important in defining the global range of species, factors related to land use and nutrient level were of greater importance in regional projections. Global climatic models were significantly improved at the island scale by the addition of fine-scale environmental variables (area under the curve values increased by 0.18 and true skill statistic values by 0.36), and projected ranges decreased from an average of 86% to 36% of the island.

Main conclusions
Refining CNMs with regional data on land use, human influence and landscape may have a substantial impact on predictive capacity, providing greater value for prioritization of conservation management at subregional or local scales.

Holocene landscape intervention and plant food production strategies in island and mainland Southeast Asia

In the areas adjacent to the drowned Pleistocene continent of Sunda – present-day Mainland and Island SE Asia – the Austronesian Hypothesis of a diaspora of rice cultivators from Taiwan ∼4200 years ago has often been linked with the start of farming. Mounting evidence suggests that these developments should not be conflated and that alternative explanations should be considered, including indigenous inception of complex patterns of plant food production and early exchange of plants, animals, technology and genes. We review evidence for widespread forest disturbance in the Early Holocene which may accompany the beginnings of complex food-production. Although often insubstantial, evidence for incipient and developing management of rainforest vegetation and of developing complex relationships with plants is present, and early enough to suggest that during the Early to mid-Holocene this vast region was marked by different approaches to plant food production. The trajectory of the increasingly complex relationships between people and their food organisms was strongly locally contingent and in many cases did not result in the development of agricultural systems that were recognisable as such at the time of early European encounters. Diverse resource management economies in the Sunda and neighbouring regions appear to have accompanied rather than replaced a reliance on hunting and gathering. This, together with evidence for Early Holocene interaction between these neighbours, gives cause for us to question some authors continued adherence to a singular narrative of the Austronesian Hypothesis and the ‘Neolithisation’ of this part of the world. It also leads us to suggest that the forests of this vast region are, to an extent, a cultural artefact.

Macroinvertebrate traits as biomonitoring tools in agricultural scenarios

Os ecossistemas de água doce – responsáveis por funções ambientais importantes e pelo fornecimento de bens e serviços insubstituíveis – têm vindo a ser severamente afectados por perturbações antropogénicas. A conversão de floresta em terreno agrícola afecta os sistemas aquáticos através de uma série de mecanismos: sedimentação; excesso de nutrientes; contaminação; alterações hidrológicas; e remoção de vegetação ripícola. As comunidades de macroinvertebrados de água doce – devido à sua diversidade, ubiquidade e sensibilidade às perturbações ambientais – revelam-se como particularmente adequadas para estudos de avaliação da integridade ecológica destes sistemas expostos simultaneamente a múltiplos factores de impacto. O uso sistemático de respostas biológicas para avaliação de mudanças ambientais – ou biomonitorização – pode ser levado a cabo através de diversas metodologias, que, de uma forma geral, não consideram aspectos funcionais das comunidades biológicas e têm aplicabilidade geograficamente restrita. A biomonitorização através de atributos biológicos (características que reflectem a adaptação das espécies ao seu meio ambiente) revela-se como uma ferramenta promissora na resolução dos problemas referidos, apresentando vantagens adicionais: relações causa-efeito directas; melhoria na diferenciação de impactos; e integração da variabilidade natural. O presente estudo apresenta uma revisão critica do estado-da-arte actual na área do uso de atributos biológicos em biomonitorização. Até à data de publicação, não estava disponível nenhum outro trabalho com a base conceptual do uso de atributos de macroinvertebrados enquanto descritores de comunidades e para efeitos de biomonitorização e gestão de sistemas de água doce. Descrevem-se as teorias ecológicas de suporte destas metodologias (conceitos de habitat-molde e de filtros paisagísticos) e os estudos que aplicaram estas teorias em cenários reais, tendo-se chamado a atenção para questões técnicas e possíveis soluções. As necessidades futuras nesta área englobam: o desenvolvimento de uma só ferramenta de biomonitorização de aplicação alargada; uma maior compreensão da variabilidade natural nas comunidades biológicas; diminuição dos efeitos de soluções de compromisso biológico e sindromas; realização de estudos autoecológicos adicionais; e detecção de impactos específicos em cenários de impacto complexos. Um dos objectivos deste estudo foi contribuir para a melhoria das técnicas de biomonitorização através de atributos, focalizando em comunidades de macroinvertebrados ribeirinhas em diferentes regiões biogeográficas (as bacias hidrográficas dos rios: Little e Salmon em New Brunswick, Canadá; Anllóns na Galiza, Espanha; Reventazón em Cartago, Costa Rica). Em cada região, foram estudados gradientes de uso agrícola de solo, incluindo desde bacias hidrográficas quase exclusivamente cobertas por floresta até bacias sob a influência maioritária de actividades agrícolas intensivas. Em cada gradiente de uso de solo, a caracterização da comunidade biológica (por amostragem de macroinvertebrados em troços de rápidos) foi acompanhada pela caracterização do habitat circundante (incluindo propriedades da bacia hidrográfica, análise química das águas e outras propriedades à escala local). A comunidade de macroinvertebrados foi caracterizada através de informação taxonómica, métricas estruturais, índices de diversidade, métricas de tolerância, índices bióticos e através da compilação de atributos biológicos e fisiológicos gerais, de história de vida e de resistência a perturbações. Análises estatísticas univariadas e multivariadas foram usadas para evidenciar os gradientes biológicos e físico-químicos, confirmar a sua co-variação, testar a significância da discriminação de níveis de impacto e estabelecer comparações inter-regionais. A estrutura de comunidades revelou os complexos gradientes de impacto, que por sua vez co-variaram significativamente com os gradientes de uso de solo. Os gradientes de impacto relacionaram-se sobretudo com entrada de nutrientes e sedimentação. Os gradientes biológicos definidos pelas medidas estruturais seleccionadas co-variaram com os gradientes de impacto estudados, muito embora apenas algumas variáveis estruturais tenham individualmente discriminado as categorias de uso de solo definidas a priori. Não foi detectada consistência nas respostas das medidas estruturais entre regiões biogeográficas, tendo-se confirmadado que as interpretações puramente taxonómicas de impactos são difíceis de extrapolar entre regiões. Os gradientes biológicos definidos através dos atributos seleccionados também co-variaram com os gradientes de perturbação, tendo sido possível obter uma melhor discriminação de categorias de uso de solo. Nas diferentes regiões, a discriminação de locais mais impactados foi feita com base num conjunto similar de atributos, que inclui tamanho, voltinismo, técnicas reproductivas, microhabitat, preferências de corrente e substrato, hábitos alimentares e formas de resistência. Este conjunto poderá vir a ser usado para avaliar de forma predictiva os efeitos das modificações severas de uso de solo impostas pela actividade agrícola. Quando analisadas simultaneamente através dos atributos, as comunidades das três regiões permitiram uma moderada mas significativa discriminação de níveis de impacto. Estas análises corroboram as evidências de que as mudanças nas comunidades de macroinvertebrados aquáticos em locais sob a influência de agricultura intensiva podem seguir uma trajectória convergente no espaço multidimensional, independentemente de factores geográficos. Foram fornecidas pistas para a identificação de parâmetros específicos que deverão ser tidos em conta no planeamento de novos programas de biomonitorização com comunidades de macroinvertebrados bentónicos, para aplicação numa gestão fluvial verdadeiramente ecológica, nestas e noutras regiões. Foram ainda sugeridas possíveis linhas futuras de investigação.

Agricultural, architectural and archaeological evidence for the role and ecological adaptation of a scattered mountain oasis in Oman

The recent discovery of the monumental 5000 years old tower tombs on top of the up to 1850 m high Shir plateau has raised numerous questions about the economic and infrastructural basis of the agro-pastoral-piscicultural society which likely has constructed them. The scattered oasis settlement of Maqta, situated just below the towers in a rugged desert environment has therefore been studied from 2001 to 2003 to understand its prehistoric and present role along the ancient trade route which connected the inner-Omani Sharqiya across the southern Hajar mountains with the ocean port of Tiwi. Maqta consists of a central area with 59 buildings and 12 scattered temporary settlements comprising a total of about 200 semi-nomadic inhabitants and next to 900 sheep and goats. The 22 small springs with a flow rate between 5 and 1212-l h^-1 are watering 16 terrace systems totaling 4.5 ha of which 2.9 ha are planted to date palms (Phoenix dactylifera L.), 0.4 ha to wheat landraces (Triticum durum and Triticum aestivum) during the cooler winter months, 0.4 are left fallow and 0.8 h are abandoned. During a pronounced drought period from 2001 to 2003, the springs’ flow rate declined between 38% and 72%. Most of the recent buildings of the central housing area were found empty or used as temporary stores by the agro-pastoral population watching their flocks on the surrounding dry mountains. There is no indication that there ever was a settlement older than the present one. A number of Hafit (3100–2700 BC) and Umm an-Nar (2700–2000 BC) tombs just above the central housing area and further along one of the trade routes to the coast are the only indication of an old pastoral landuse in Maqta territory where oasis agriculture may have entered only well after 1000 AD. With this little evidence of existence during the 3rd millennium BC, Maqta is unlikely to have played any major role favouring the construction of the nearby monumental Shir tower tombs other than providing water for herders and their flocks, early migrant traders or tower tomb constructors.

Influence of agricultural management, sward structure and food resources on grassland field use by birds in lowland England.

Agricultural management of grassland in lowland Britain has changed fundamentally in the last 50 years, resulting in spatial and structural uniformity within the pastoral landscape. The full extent to which these changes may have reduced the suitability of grassland as foraging habitat for birds is unknown. This study investigated the mechanisms by which these changes have impacted on birds and their food supplies. We quantified field use by birds in summer and winter in two grassland areas of lowland England (Devon and Buckinghamshire) over 3 years, relating bird occurrence to the management, sward structure and seed and invertebrate food resources of individual fields. Management intensity was defined in terms of annual nitrogen input. There was no consistent effect of management intensity on total seed head production, although those of grasses generally increased with inputs while forbs were rare throughout. Relationships between management intensity and abundance of soil and epigeal invertebrates were complex. Soil beetle larvae were consistently lower in abundance, and surface-active beetle larvae counts consistently higher, in intensively managed fields. Foliar invertebrates showed more consistent negatively relationships with management intensity. Most bird species occurred at low densities. There were consistent relationships across regions and years between the occurrence of birds and measures of field management. In winter, there was a tendency towards higher occupancy of intensively managed fields by species feeding on soil invertebrates. In summer, there were few such relationships, although many species avoided fields with tall swards. Use of fields by birds was generally not related to measures of seed or invertebrate food abundance. While granivorous species were perhaps too rare to detect a relationship, in insectivores the strong negative relationships (in summer) with sward height suggested that access to food may be the critical factor. While it appears that intensification of grassland management has been deleterious to the summer food resources of insectivorous birds that use insects living within the grass sward, intensification may have been beneficial to several species in winter through the enhancement of soil invertebrates. Synthesis and applications. We suggest that attempts to restore habitat quality for birds in grassland landscapes need to create a range of management intensities and sward structures at the field and farm scales. A greater understanding of methods to enhance prey accessibility, as well as abundance, for insectivorous birds is required.

The use of agricultural, open and forest habitats by juvenile Mauritius Kestrels Falco punctatus

Knowledge of tropical raptor habitat use is limited and yet a thorough understanding is vital when trying to conserve endangered species. We used a well studied, reintroduced population of the vulnerable Mauritius Kestrel Falco punctatus to investigate habitat preferences in a modified landscape. We constructed a high resolution digital habitat map and radiotracked 13 juvenile Kestrels to quantify habitat preferences. We distinguished seven habitat types in our study area and tracked Kestrels from 71 to 130 days old during which they dispersed from their natal territory and settled within a home-range after reaching independence. Mean home-range size was 0.95 km(2) characterized by a bimodal pattern of intensity around the natal site and post-independence home-range. Compositional analysis showed that home-ranges were located non-randomly with respect to habitat but there was no evidence to suggest differential use of habitats within home-ranges. Native and semi-invaded forest and grassland were consistently preferred, whereas agriculture was used significantly less than other habitats. No difference was found between the available length of edge dividing native forest and grassland within a home-range when compared to that available within a 2.35-km buffer around their nest-site, based on the maximum distance a juvenile was found to disperse. Repeating the analysis in three dimensions gave very similar results. Our results suggest that Mauritius Kestrels are not obligate forest dwellers as was once thought but can also exploit open habitats such as grassland. Kestrels may be using isolated mature trees within grassland as vantage points for hunting in the same way as they use the natural stratified forest structure. We suggest that the avoidance of agriculture is partly due to a lack of such vantage points. The conservation importance of forest degradation and agricultural encroachment is highlighted and comparisons with the habitat preferences of other tropical falcons are discussed.

Landscape context and habitat type as drivers of bee diversity in European annual crops

To better understand the dynamics of bee populations in crops, we assessed the effect of landscape context and habitat type on bee communities in annual entomophilous crops in Europe. We quantified bee communities in five pairs of crop-country: buckwheat in Poland, cantaloupe in France, field beans in the UK, spring oilseed rape in Sweden, and strawberries in Germany. For each country, 7-10 study fields were sampled over a gradient of increasing proportion of semi-natural habitats in the surrounding landscape. The CORINE land cover classification was used to characterize the landscape over a 3 km radius around each study field and we used multivariate and regression analyses to quantify the impact of landscape features on bee abundance and diversity at the sub-generic taxonomic level. Neither overall wild bee abundance nor diversity, taken as the number of sub-genera. was significantly affected by the proportion of semi-natural habitat. Therefore, we used the most precise level of the CORINE classification to examine the possible links between specific landscape features and wild bee communities. Bee community composition fell into three distinct groups across Europe: group I included Poland, Germany, and Sweden, group 2 the UK, and group 3 France. Among all three groups, wild bee abundance and sub-generic diversity were affected by 17 landscape elements including some semi-natural habitats (e.g., transitional wood land-shrub), some urban habitats (e.g., sport and leisure facilities) and some crop habitats (e.g., non-irrigated arable land). Some bee taxa were positively affected by urban habitats only, others by semi-natural habitats only, and others by a combination of semi-natural, urban and crop habitats. Bee sub-genera favoured by urban and crop habitats were more resistant to landscape change than those favoured only by semi-natural habitats. In agroecosystems, the agricultural intensification defined as the loss of semi-natural habitats does not necessarily cause a decline in evenness at the local level, but can change community composition towards a bee fauna dominated by common taxa. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Quantifying the effect of buffer zones, crop areas and spatial aggregation on the externalities of genetically modified crops at landscape level

The development of genetically modified (GM) crops has led the European Union (EU) to put forward the concept of 'coexistence' to give fanners the freedom to plant both conventional and GM varieties. Should a premium for non-GM varieties emerge in the market, 'contamination' by GM pollen would generate a negative externality to conventional growers. It is therefore important to assess the effect of different 'policy variables'on the magnitude of the externality to identify suitable policies to manage coexistence. In this paper, taking GM herbicide tolerant oilseed rape as a model crop, we start from the model developed in Ceddia et al. [Ceddia, M.G., Bartlett, M., Perrings, C., 2007. Landscape gene flow, coexistence and threshold effect: the case of genetically modified herbicide tolerant oilseed rape (Brassica napus). Ecol. Modell. 205, pp. 169-180] use a Monte Carlo experiment to generate data and then estimate the effect of the number of GM and conventional fields, width of buffer areas and the degree of spatial aggregation (i.e. the 'policy variables') on the magnitude of the externality at the landscape level. To represent realistic conditions in agricultural production, we assume that detection of GM material in conventional produce might occur at the field level (no grain mixing occurs) or at the silos level (where grain mixing from different fields in the landscape occurs). In the former case, the magnitude of the externality will depend on the number of conventional fields with average transgenic presence above a certain threshold. In the latter case, the magnitude of the externality will depend on whether the average transgenic presence across all conventional fields exceeds the threshold. In order to quantify the effect of the relevant' policy variables', we compute the marginal effects and the elasticities. Our results show that when relying on marginal effects to assess the impact of the different 'policy variables', spatial aggregation is far more important when transgenic material is detected at field level, corroborating previous research. However, when elasticity is used, the effectiveness of spatial aggregation in reducing the externality is almost identical whether detection occurs at field level or at silos level. Our results show also that the area planted with GM is the most important 'policy variable' in affecting the externality to conventional growers and that buffer areas on conventional fields are more effective than those on GM fields. The implications of the results for the coexistence policies in the EU are discussed. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Plant-pollinator biodiversity and pollination services in a complex Mediterranean landscape

Mediterranean landscapes comprise a complex mosaic of different habitats that vary in the diversity of their floral communities, pollinator communities and pollination services. Using the Greek Island of Lesvos as a model system, we assess the biodiversity value of six common habitats and measure ecosystemic 'health' using pollen grain deposition in three core flowering plants as a measure of pollination services. Three fire-driven habitats were assessed: freshly burnt areas, fully regenerated pine forests and intermediate age scrub; in addition we examined oak woodlands, actively managed olive groves and groves that had been abandoned from agriculture. Oak woodlands, pine forests and managed olive groves had the highest diversity of bees. The habitat characteristics responsible for structuring bee communities were: floral diversity, floral abundance, nectar energy availability and the variety of nectar resources present. Pollination services in two of our plant species, which were pollinated by a limited sub-set of the pollinator community, indicated that pollination levels were highest in the burnt and mature pine habitats. The third species, which was open to all flower visitors, indicated that oak woodlands had the highest levels of pollination from generalist species. Pollination was always more effective in managed olive groves than in abandoned groves. However, the two most common species of bee, the honeybee and a bumblebee, were not the primary pollinators within these habitats. We conclude that the three habitats of greatest overall value for plant-pollinator communities and provision of the healthiest pollination services are pine forests, oak woodland and managed olive groves. We indicate how the highest value habitats may be maintained in a complex landscape to safeguard and enhance pollination function within these habitats and potentially in adjoining agricultural areas. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Landscape effects on crop pollination services: are there general patterns?

Pollination by bees and other animals increases the size, quality, or stability of harvests for 70% of leading global crops. Because native species pollinate many of these crops effectively, conserving habitats for wild pollinators within agricultural landscapes can help maintain pollination services. Using hierarchical Bayesian techniques, we synthesize the results of 23 studies - representing 16 crops on five continents - to estimate the general relationship between pollination services and distance from natural or semi-natural habitats. We find strong exponential declines in both pollinator richness and native visitation rate. Visitation rate declines more steeply, dropping to half of its maximum at 0.6 km from natural habitat, compared to 1.5 km for richness. Evidence of general decline in fruit and seed set - variables that directly affect yields - is less clear. Visitation rate drops more steeply in tropical compared with temperate regions, and slightly more steeply for social compared with solitary bees. Tropical crops pollinated primarily by social bees may therefore be most susceptible to pollination failure from habitat loss. Quantifying these general relationships can help predict consequences of land use change on pollinator communities and crop productivity, and can inform landscape conservation efforts that balance the needs of native species and people.

Effect of field margins on moths depends on species mobility: Field-based evidence for landscape-scale conservation

Agri-environment schemes (AES) are widely used policy instruments intended to combat widespread biodiversity declines across agricultural landscapes. Here, using a light trapping and mark-release-recapture study at a field-scale on nine common and widespread larger moth species, we investigate the effect of wide field margins (a popular current scheme option) and the presence of hedgerow trees (a potential scheme option in England) on moth abundance. Of these, we show that wide field margins positively affected abundances, although species did not all respond in the same way. We demonstrate that this variation can be attributed to species-specific mobility characteristics. Those species for which the effect of wide margins was strongest covered shorter distances, and were more frequently recaptured at their site of first capture. This demonstrates that the standard, field-scale uptake of AES may be effective only for less mobile species. We discuss that a landscape-scale approach, in contrast, could deliver significant biodiversity gains, as our results indicate that such an approach (perhaps delivered through targeting farmers to join AES) would be effective for the majority of wider countryside species, irrespective of their mobility level. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Detecting the environmental impact of the Baltic Crusades on a late-medieval (13th-15th century) frontier landscape: palynological analysis from Malbork Castle and hinterland, Northern Poland

Palaeoecological analysis of peat deposits from a small bog, combined with pollen analysis of sediments infilling the moat of the nearby Teutonic Order castle at Malbork, have been used to examine the ecological impact of the Crusades on the late-medieval landscape of Northern Poland. Studies of the environmental impact of the Crusades have been almost exclusively informed by written sources; this study is the first of its type to directly investigate the environmental context of Crusading as a force of ecological transformation on the late-medieval Baltic landscape. The pollen evidence from Malbork Castle and its hinterland demonstrate that the 12th/13th–15th centuries coincide with a marked transformation in vegetation and land-use, characterized by clearance of broadleaved woodland and subsequent agricultural intensification, particularly during the 14th/15th centuries. These changes are ascribed to landscape transformations associated with the Teutonic Order’s control of the landscape from the mid-13th century. Human activity identified in the pollen record prior to this is argued to reflect the activities of Pomeranian settlers in the area. This paper also discusses the broader palaeoecological evidence for medieval landscape change across Northern Poland.

Saving the planet but losing the landscape: the impact of renewable energy policies on rural Britain

The main instrument of the Government's renewable energy policy is to promote wind power through regulation and subsidy. This gives rise to anomalies in rural planning when turbines are erected in sensitve areas in which other forms of development are strictly controlled. The situation is reviewed in the context of economic viability and considered also against the alternative of growing fuel crops. The latter are currently hampered by lack of Government support but could fulfil a useful secondary role of sustaining the agricultural sector and with it the management of lowland landscapes.