Spatio-temporal modeling of agricultural yield data with an application to pricing crop insurance contracts

This article presents a statistical model of agricultural yield data based on a set of hierarchical Bayesian models that allows joint modeling of temporal and spatial autocorrelation. This method captures a comprehensive range of the various uncertainties involved in predicting crop insurance premium rates as opposed to the more traditional ad hoc, two-stage methods that are typically based on independent estimation and prediction. A panel data set of county-average yield data was analyzed for 290 counties in the State of Parana (Brazil) for the period of 1990 through 2002. Posterior predictive criteria are used to evaluate different model specifications. This article provides substantial improvements in the statistical and actuarial methods often applied to the calculation of insurance premium rates. These improvements are especially relevant to situations where data are limited.

Changes in the genetic structure of Bacteria and microbial activity in an agricultural soil amended with tannery sludge

The application of tannery sludge to soils is a form of recycling; however, few studies have examined the impacts of this practice on soil microbial properties. We studied effects of two applications (2006 and 2007) of tannery sludge (with a low chromium content) on the structure of the bacterial community and on the microbial activity of soils. We fertilized an agricultural area in Rolandia, Parana state, Brazil with different doses of sludge based on total N content, which ranged from 0 to 1200 kg N ha(-1). Sludge remained on the soil surface for three months before being plowed. Soils were sampled seven times during the experiment. Bacterial community structure, assessed by denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE), was modified by the application of tannery sludge. Soon after the first application, there was clear separation between the bacterial communities in different treatments, such that each dose of sludge was associated with a specific community. These differences remained until 300 days after application and also after the second sludge application, but 666 days after the beginning of the experiment no differences were found in the bacterial communities of the lowest doses and the control. The principal response curve (PRC) analysis showed that the first sludge application strongly stimulated biological activity even 300 days after application. The second application also stimulated activity, but at a lower magnitude and for a shorter time, given that 260 days after the second application there was no difference in biological activity among treatments. PRC also showed that the properties most influenced by the application of tannery sludge were enzymatic activities related to N cycling (asparaginase and urease). The redundancy analysis (RDA) showed that tannery sludge`s influence on microbial activity is mainly related to increases in inorganic N and soil pH. Results showed that changes in the structure of the bacterial community in the studied soils were directly related to changes of their biological activity. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Microcystins in South American aquatic ecosystems: Occurrence, toxicity and toxicological assays

The acute poisoning of chronic renal patients during hemodialysis sessions in 1996 in Caruaru City (Pernambuco State, Brazil) stimulated an intensive search for the cause of this severe complication. This search culminated in the identification of microcystins (MC), hepatotoxic cyclic heptapeptides produced by cyanobacteria, as the causative agents. More than ten years later, additional research data provides us with a better understanding of the factors related to cyanobacterial bloom occurrence and production of MC in Brazil and other South American countries. The contamination of water bodies and formation of toxic blooms remains a very serious concern, especially in countries in which surface water is used as the main source for human consumption. The purpose of this review is to highlight the discoveries of the past 15 years that have brought South American researchers to their current level of understanding of toxic cyanobacteria species and that have contributed to their knowledge of factors related to MC production, mechanisms of action and consequences for human health and the environment. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Production and characteristics comparison of crude beta-glucosidases produced by microorganisms Thermoascus aurantiacus e Aureobasidium pullulans in agricultural wastes

The purified beta-glucosidase of Aureobasidium pullulans ER-16 is one of more thermostable enzyme reported to date. Considering the unfeasibility of using purified enzyme for industrial application, it was interesting to analyze this property for the crude enzyme. Thermophilic fungus Thermoascus aurantiacus CBMAI-756 and mesophilic A. pullulans ER-16 were cultivated in different hemicellulosic materials on solid-state cultivation for beta-glucosidase production. Wheat bran was most appropriate for beta-glucosidase production by both microorganisms. T. aurantiacus exhibited maximum enzyme production (7.0 U/ml or 70 U/g) at 48-72 h and A. pullulans a maximum (1.3 U/ml or 13 U/g) at 120 h. Maximum activities were at 75 degrees C with optimum pH at 4.5 and 4.0, for T aurantiacus and A. pullulans, respectively. A. pullulans`s beta-glucosidase was more pH stable (4.5-10.0 against 4.5-8.0) and more thermostable (90% after 1 h at 75 degrees C against 85% after 1 h at 70 degrees C) than the enzyme from the thermophilic T. aurantiacus. The t((1/2)) at 80 degrees C were 50 and 12.5 min for A. pullulans and T. aurantiascus, respectively. These data confirm the high thermostability of crude beta-glucosidase from A. pullulans. Both beta-glucosidases were strongly inhibited by glucose, but ethanol significantly increased the activity of the enzyme from T. aurantiacus. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Historical overfishing and the recent collapse of coastal ecosystems

Ecological extinction caused by overfishing precedes all other pervasive human disturbance to coastal ecosystems, including pollution, degradation of water quality, and anthropogenic climate change. Historical abundances of large consumer species were fantastically large in comparison with recent observations. Paleoecological, archaeological, and historical data show that time lags of decades to centuries occurred between the onset of overfishing and consequent changes in ecological communities, because unfished species of similar trophic level assumed the ecological roles of overfished species until they too were overfished or died of epidemic diseases related to overcrowding. Retrospective data not only help to clarify underlying causes and rates of ecological change, but they also demonstrate achievable goals for restoration and management of coastal ecosystems that could not even be contemplated based on the limited perspective of recent observations alone.

Global trajectories of the long-term decline of coral reef ecosystems

Degradation of coral reef ecosystems began centuries ago, but there is no global summary of the magnitude of change. We compiled records, extending back thousands of years, of the status and trends of seven major guilds of carnivores, herbivores, and architectural species from 14 regions. Large animals declined before small animals and architectural species, and Atlantic reefs declined before reefs in the Red Sea and Australia, but the trajectories of decline were markedly similar worldwide. All reefs were substantially degraded long before outbreaks of coral disease and bleaching. Regardless of these new threats, reefs will not survive without immediate protection from human exploitation over large spatial scales.

Patents and the CGIAR system of International Agricultural Research Centres' germplasm collections under the International Treaty on Plant Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture

A key controversy in negotiating the International Treaty on Plant Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture, and the likely long-term effectiveness of the agreement, is the way in which the intellectual property provisions are interpreted and applied to the key genetic resources forming the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) system of International Agricultural Research Centres' (IARC) collections. This paper reviews the intellectual property provisions in the treaty and examines the likely consequences from patenting under the Patents Act 1990 over materials derived from these collections. The consequence is argued to be significant and, over time, these practices are likely to deplete the usefulness of these collections and undermine the relevance of the treaty. The paper concludes that Australia's interests might best be served by arguing that access to these collections, and the other materials under the treaty, be subject to a non-exclusive, royalty free licence for any use of the derived materials to develop useful new plant varieties.

Reshaping the global agricultural landscape: perspectives from Brazil

This article highlights the main changes observed in Brazilian agriculture and analyzes the connections of the observed changes in global agriculture. My approach to the analysis focuses the main drivers of changes, where institutions play a central role. Three driving forces are are considered: first, the effects of global demand for food, fiber, and energy; second, the sustainability debate; and third, the bio-energy paradigm. Each driver presents both local as well as global effects. The article does not emphasize the impact changes in Brazil had on the global agricultural landscape but argues that the impacts run from local and global changes, which cannot be discussed separately.

Customer Perception about Loyalty Programs in Agricultural Market: a case study

This study discusses the use of loyalty programs and Customer perception in, agricultural market. The theoretical review includes relationship marketing, its objectives, dimensions and instruments, and loyalty programs. The method for the empirical part consisted on qualitative research, through a case study conducted at one of the largest crop protection chemical companies in Brazil. The case is representative once this company was pioneer in its segment in adopting the customer relationship management. (CRM) approach to-their clients: It has been a consensus that customer relationship is a tool to amplify the Customer share. This.,is so, due the. increasing competition generated by the entrance of generic products and the retaliation actions adopted by the multinational groups. The case study includes a market overview, a description of the company, its loyalty program, the image of the program from the customer`s perspective, and the main results acquired with the CRM program. The Study also presents some recommendations for-companies that are pursuing strategies to. increase their customer share through loyalty programs.

A history of agricultural production at Neolithic Catalhoyuk East, Turkey

A history of agricultural production is proposed for Neolithic Catalhoyuk East, central Turkey, using archaeobotanical, environmental, population and settlement studies. In the aceramic early phase of site occupation, intensive strategies developed as changes in population and environment caused stress on food supplies produced within a limited territory. Food exchange may have been part of the social means by which Catalhoyuk and nearby contemporary settlements amalgamated into the single site of the main occupation phase. Population change, inherited territories and continuing environmental impact led to the development of an extensive system of agriculture using widely dispersed dry soils, with an intensive regime applied to nearby alluvial soils. Social tensions caused by the evolution of this system contributed to the fissioning of the site by the Chalcolithic.

Limited ecoclinal variation found in Malva parviflora (small-flowered mallow) across the Mediterranean-climatic agricultural region of Western Australia

Malva parviflora L. populations were collected from 24 locations across the Mediterranean-climatic agricultural region of Western Australia and grown in Perth in a common garden experiment. Seventeen morphometric and taxonomic measurements were taken and genetic variation was investigated by performing principal components analysis (PCA). Taxonomic measurements confirmed that all plants used in the study were M. parviflora. Greater variation occurred within populations than between populations. Separation between populations was only evident between northern and southern populations along principal components 2 (PC2), which was due mainly to flowering time. Flowering time and consequently photoperiod were highly correlated with latitude and regression analysis revealed a close relationship (r(2) = 0.6). Additionally, the pollination system of M. parviflora was examined. Plants were able to self-pollinate without the need for external vectors and the pollen ovule ratio (31 +/- 1.3) revealed that M. parviflora is most likely to be an obligate inbreeder with a slight potential for outcrossing. The limited variation of M. parviflora enhances the likelihood of suitable control strategies being effective across a broad area.