A simulation-based algorithm for optimal pricing policy under demand uncertainty

We propose a simulation-based algorithm for computing the optimal pricing policy for a product under uncertain demand dynamics. We consider a parameterized stochastic differential equation (SDE) model for the uncertain demand dynamics of the product over the planning horizon. In particular, we consider a dynamic model that is an extension of the Bass model. The performance of our algorithm is compared to that of a myopic pricing policy and is shown to give better results. Two significant advantages with our algorithm are as follows: (a) it does not require information on the system model parameters if the SDE system state is known via either a simulation device or real data, and (b) as it works efficiently even for high-dimensional parameters, it uses the efficient smoothed functional gradient estimator.

Fire and soil temperatures during controlled burns in seasonally dry tropical forests of southern India

Fire and soil temperatures were measured during controlled burns conducted by the Forest Department at two seasonally dry tropical forest sites in southern India, and their relationships with fuel load, fuel moisture and weather variables assessed using stepwise regression. Fire temperatures at the ground level varied between 79 degrees C and 760 degrees C, with higher temperatures recorded at high fuel loads and ambient temperatures, whereas lower temperatures were recorded at high relative humidity. Fire temperatures did not vary with fuel moisture or wind speed. Soil temperatures varied between <79 degrees C and 302 degrees C and were positively correlated with ground-level fire temperatures. Results from the study imply that fuel loads in forested areas have to be reduced to ensure low intensity fires in the dry season. Low fire temperatures would ensure lower mortality of above-ground saplings and minimal damage to root stocks of tree species that would maintain the regenerative capacity of a tropical dry forest subject to dry season wildfires.

Remarkable Selectivity and Photo-Cytotoxicity of an Oxidovanadium(IV) Complex of Curcumin in Visible Light

Oxidovanadium(IV) complexes of 2-(2'-pyridyl)-1,10-phenanthroline (pyphen), viz. VO(pyphen)(acac)](ClO4) (1), VO(pyphen)(anacac)](ClO4) (2) and VO(pyphen)(cur)](ClO4) (3), where acac is acetylacetonate (in 1), anacac is anthracenylacetylacetonate (in 2) and cur is curcumin monoanion (in 3) were synthesized, characterized and their photo-induced DNA cleavage activities and photo-cytotoxicities studied. The complexes are 1: 1 electrolytes in DMF. The one-electron paramagnetic complexes show a d-d band near 760 nm in DMF. Complexes 2 and 3 are blue and green emissive, respectively, in DMSO. The complexes exhibit irreversible V-IV/V-III reductive responses near -1.1 V and V-V/V-IV oxidative responses near 0.85 V vs. SCE in DMF-0.1 M TBAP. Complexes 2 and 3 display significant and selective photo-cytotoxicity upon irradiation with visible light giving an IC50 value of about 5 mu M against HeLa and MCF-7 cancer cells; they are significantly less-toxic against normal 3T3 control cells and in the absence of light. Complex 1 was used as a control. Both cytosolic and nuclear localization of the complexes were observed on the basis of fluorescence imaging. The complexes, avid binders to calf thymus (ct) DNA, were found to photocleave supercoiled pUC19 DNA upon irradiation with near-IR light (785 nm) by generating hydroxyl radical (OH) as the reactive oxygen species (ROS). Cell death events noted with HeLa and MCF-7 cell lines likely are attributable to apoptotic pathways involving light-assisted generation of intracellular ROS.

Effects of the orientation of microgravity on the concentration distribution in crystallization from solution

A quasi-steady state growth and dissolution in a 2-D rectangular enclosure is numerically investigated. This paper is an extension to indicate the effects of the orientation of gravity on the concentration field in crystallization from solution under microgravity, especially on the lateral non-uniformity of concentration distribution at the growth surface. The thermal and solute convection are included in this model.

Evaluación de criterios de aplicación para el manejo de Plutella xylostella (L) en repollo (Brassica oleracea L.)

Con el objetivo de evaluar diferentes criterios de aplicación para el manejo de Plutella xylostella (L.) en el cultivo de repollo se realizó un experimento de campo en la época de primera en el Centro experimental de campos Azules (Masatepe, Departamento de Masaya), se mantuvieron diferentes niveles de esta plaga por medio de aplicaciones semanales del insecticida Chlorfluazurón (Júpiter) a una dosis de 182 cc/ha. La incidencia de la plaga no fue uniforme durante el ciclo del cultivo, oscilando por encima de los niveles establecidos a partir de los 28 DDT. La mayor incidencia fue de 1.2 larvas/planta en la etapa de formación de cabeza y de 3 3 larvas/planta para la etapa de llenado de cabeza afectando el área foliar, precio por cabeza, y los ingresos económicos. A los resultados agronómicos se les aplicó un análisis económico, resultando del aná11s1s de retorno marginal, tasas de retornos marginales 760 por ciento más hasta 1 o por ciento menos en el precio del insecticida, bajo este rango de variación en estos precios aplicar insecticida cuando exista 0.5 larvas de P. xylostella /planta, sigue siendo una recomendación válida y confiable en el campo.

Análisis de la utilización del recurso suelo en Nicaragua

El suelo se puede valorar desde una perspectiva productiva, económica, social, organizativa e histórica. En este caso se quiere hacer una valoración desde el punto de vista del suelo como mercancía, por ser objeto de compra venta. Pero hay particularidades que lo diferencian de otras mercancías, tales como no ser el resultado del trabajo precedente del hombre y tener un espacio geográfico limitado. En Centroamérica, Nicaragua es el país que tiene la más alta disponibilidad de suelo por habitante y El Salvador el que tiene la más baja disponibilidad de suelo por persona, en caso de relacionarlo con la superficie total. Pero cuando se relaciona con la superficie arable, la situación cambia para El Salvador, ya que Costa Rica tiene menos disponibilidad de suelo arable por persona. Lo cual es una buena noticia, debido a que el país dispone de más tiempo para mejorar los indicadores: productivos, ambientales, económicos y sociales. Nicaragua tiene el 82.2% del suelo de uso agropecuario, pero, la estructura de uso del área agropecuaria, se encuentra un uso extensivo. El 39.9% es de pasto natural y el 23.1% de suelo en descanso y tacotales. Este es un ángulo de importancia, debido a la creciente necesidad de alimentos y conservación de los recursos naturales. Tomando en cuenta la cantidad de explotaciones y el área, el coeficiente de Gini es de 0.72, el cual representa un alto nivel de concentración del uso del suelo. De acuerdo al modelo de regresión simple se ha utilizado en base a los datos de la FAO, se espera que cada año se pierdan 91 760 hectáreas de bosques. De 1 925 000 hectáreas de tierras arables que tiene Nicaragua, lo que significa que un 4.8% del suelo arable de nuestro país se deforesta cada año. Este es un panorama grave que se le debe prestar atención.

气旋限流效应及其在大功率激光气动窗口上应用的可能性

分析了进口气旋对收缩型喷管流量的影响。强气旋能显著地降低流量。对大功率气体激光气动窗口应用进口气旋预计可节省抽气功率;缩短窗口长度。

Study on cracked plates, shells and 3 dimensional bodies

This paper presents a summary of the authors' recent work in following areas: (1) The stress-strain fields at crack tip in Reissner's plate. (2) The calculations of the stress intensity factors in finite size plates. (3) The stress-strain fields at crack tip in Reissner's shell. (4) The calculations of the stress intensity factors and bulging coefficients in finite size spherical shells. (5) The stress-strain fields along crack tip in three dimensional body with surface crack. (6) The calculation of stress intensity factors in a plate with surface crack.

煤粉燃烧中NO_x和SO_x生成的详细反应机理模拟

采用详细化学反应机理与CFD方法耦合的煤粉燃烧数值模拟程序,计算了煤粉燃烧过程中CO,NOx和SOx等的浓度分布特性.通过与实验对照,验证了数值模拟方法的可靠性,并分析了燃烧温度和煤粉细度等因素对于NO生成的影响.结果表明温度对于NO的生成影响较大,随着温度的增加, NO的生成浓度明显增加;对于不同煤种,可能存在一个温度点,这时NO的生成速率将非常快;在计算范围内,温度对SO2的最终生成浓度没有明显影响,而只影响SO2的释放过程.煤粉细度对于NO生成有较小的影响.

瑞利泰勒不稳定性中尺度效应的数值模拟研究(英文)

　瑞利 泰勒不稳定性是一种由于密度梯度引起的界面不稳定性,在惯性约束聚变中具有重要的意义。利用被动标量输运模型对包含不同尺度初始扰动的界面演化过程进行数值模拟。计算结果表明界面的初始形状对不稳定性的发展具有很大的影响,狭长型扰动比正方型扰动发展慢。另外,不同尺度扰动的相互作用一般会减小沿界面发展方向运动的动能,使能量更多地用于平行于界面方向的运动。

爆炸变形定向战斗部壳体变形分析

本文根据刚塑性最小加速度原理 ,建立了在非对称爆炸冲击载荷作用下自由圆柱壳体的分析模型 ,在不同辅助装药分位角和变形初速条件下 ,用该模型分别计算了相应的壳体最终变形。模拟实验表明 ,实验结果和计算结果比较吻合

用于多参数生化检测微系统的葡萄糖传感器的研究

基于生物酶催化的电化学电流检测原理对人体血液生化参数进行测试.利用MEMS技术将电极、酶、反应室以及微型流路等单片集成,研制单一生物芯片的多电极酶传感器目的是同时测定人体血液的多个生化参数.本文主要介绍传感器芯片的工作原理、结构设计、加工技术及初步实验结果,其中葡萄糖在磷酸盐缓冲盐水(PBS)中的测试范围为1～30 m*mol/L,可以满足临床血糖检测的要求.

U.S. Caribbean fish trap fishery costs and earnings study

Executive Summary: This study describes the socio-economic characteristics of the U.S. Caribbean trap fishery that encompasses the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and Territory of the U.S. Virgin Islands. In-person interviews were administered to one hundred randomly selected trap fishermen, constituting nearly 25% of the estimated population. The sample was stratified by geographic area and trap tier. The number of traps owned or fished to qualify for a given tier varied by island. In Puerto Rico, tier I consisted of fishermen who had between 1-40 fish traps, tier II was made up of fishermen who possessed between 41 and 100 fish traps, and tier III consisted of fishermen who held in excess of 100 fish traps. In St. Thomas and St. John, tier I was composed of fishermen who held between 1 and 50 fish traps, tier II consisted of fishermen who had between 51-150 fish traps and tier III was made up of fishermen who had in excess of 150 fish traps. Lastly, in St. Croix, tier I was made up of fishermen who had less than 20 fish traps and tier II consisted of fishermen who had 20 or more fish traps. The survey elicited information on household demographics, annual catch and revenue, trap usage, capital investment on vessels and equipment, fixed and variable costs, behavioral response to a hypothetical trap reduction program and the spatial distribution of traps. The study found that 79% of the sampled population was 40 years or older. The typical Crucian trap fisherman was older than their Puerto Rican and St. Thomian and St. Johnian counterparts. Crucian fishermen’s average age was 57 years whereas Puerto Rican fishermen’s average age was 51 years, and St. Thomian and St. Johnian fishermen’s average age was 48 years. As a group, St. Thomian and St. Johnian fishermen had 25 years of fishing experience, and Puerto Rican and Crucian fishermen had 30, and 29 years, respectively. Overall, 90% of the households had at least one dependent. The average number of dependents across islands was even, ranging between 2.8 in the district of St. Thomas and St. John and 3.4 in the district of St. Croix. The percentage utilization of catch for personal or family use was relatively low. Regionally, percentage use of catch for personal or family uses ranged from 2.5% in St. Croix to 3.8% in the St. Thomas and St. John. About 47% of the respondents had a high school degree. The majority of the respondents were highly dependent on commercial fishing for their household income. In St. Croix, commercial fishing made up 83% of the fishermen’s total household income, whereas in St. Thomas and St. John and Puerto Rico it contributed 74% and 68%, respectively. The contribution of fish traps to commercial fishing income ranged from 51% in the lowest trap tier in St. Thomas and St. John to 99% in the highest trap tier in St. Croix. On an island basis, the contribution of fish traps to fishing income was 75% in St. Croix, 61% in St. Thomas and St. John, and 59% in Puerto Rico. The value of fully rigged vessels ranged from $400 to $250,000. Over half of the fleet was worth $10,000 or less. The St. Thomas and St. John fleet reported the highest mean value, averaging $58,518. The Crucian and Puerto Rican fleets were considerably less valuable, averaging $19,831 and $8,652, respectively. The length of the vessels ranged from 14 to 40 feet. Fifty-nine percent of the sampled vessels were at least 23 feet in length. The average length of the St. Thomas and St. John fleet was 28 feet, whereas the fleets based in St. Croix and Puerto Rico averaged 21 feet. The engine’s propulsion ranged from 8 to 400 horsepower (hp). The mean engine power was 208 hp in St. Thomas and St. John, 108 hp in St. Croix, and 77 hp in Puerto Rico. Mechanical trap haulers and depth recorders were the most commonly used on-board equipment. About 55% of the sampled population reported owning mechanical trap haulers. In St. Thomas and St. John, 100% of the respondents had trap haulers compared to 52% in Puerto Rico and 20% in St. Croix. Forty-seven percent of the fishermen surveyed stated having depth recorders. Depth recorders were most common in the St. Thomas and St. John fleet (80%) and least common in the Puerto Rican fleet (37%). The limited presence of emergency position indication radio beacons (EPIRBS) and radar was the norm among the fish trap fleet. Only 8% of the respondents had EPIRBS and only 1% had radar. Interviewees stated that they fished between 1 and 350 fish traps. Puerto Rican respondents fished on average 39 fish traps, in contrast to St. Thomian and St. Johnian and Crucian respondents, who fished 94 and 27 fish traps, respectively. On average, Puerto Rican respondents fished 11 lobster traps, and St. Thomian and St. Johnian respondents fished 46 lobster traps. None of the Crucian respondents fished lobster traps. The number of fish traps built or purchased ranged between 0 and 175, and the number of lobster traps built or bought ranged between 0 and 200. Puerto Rican fishermen on average built or purchased 30 fish traps and 14 lobster traps, and St. Thomian and St. Johnian fishermen built or bought 30 fish traps and 11 lobster traps. Crucian fishermen built or bought 25 fish traps and no lobster traps. As a group, fish trap average life ranged between 1.3 and 5 years, and lobster traps lasted slightly longer, between 1.5 and 6 years. The study found that the chevron or arrowhead style was the most common trap design. Puerto Rican fishermen owned an average of 20 arrowhead traps. St. Thomian and St. Johnian and Crucian fishermen owned an average of 44 and 15 arrowhead fish traps, respectively. The second most popular trap design was the square trap style. Puerto Rican fishermen had an average of 9 square traps, whereas St. Thomian and St. Johnian fishermen had 33 traps and Crucian fishermen had 2 traps. Antillean Z (or S) -traps, rectangular and star traps were also used. Although Z (or S) -traps are considered the most productive trap design, fishermen prefer the smaller-sized arrowhead and square traps because they are easier and less expensive to build, and larger numbers of them can be safely deployed. The cost of a fish trap, complete with rope and buoys, varied significantly due to the wide range of construction materials utilized. On average, arrowhead traps commanded $94 in Puerto Rico, $251 in St. Thomas and St. John, and $119 in St. Croix. The number of trips per week ranged between 1 and 6. However, 72% of the respondents mentioned that they took two trips per week. On average, Puerto Rican fishermen took 2.1 trips per week, St. Thomian and St. Johnian fishermen took 1.4 trips per week, and Crucian fishermen took 2.5 trips per week. Most fishing trips started at dawn and finished early in the afternoon. Over 82% of the trips lasted 8 hours or less. On average, Puerto Rican fishermen hauled 27 fish traps per trip whereas St. Thomian and St. Johnian fishermen and Crucian fishermen hauled 68 and 26 fish traps per trip, respectively. The number of traps per string and soak time varied considerably across islands. In St. Croix, 84% of the respondents had a single trap per line, whereas in St. Thomas and St. John only 10% of the respondents had a single trap per line. Approximately, 43% of Puerto Rican fishermen used a single trap line. St. Thomian and St. Johnian fishermen soaked their traps for 6.9 days while Puerto Rican and Crucian fishermen soaked their traps for 5.7 and 3.6 days, respectively. The heterogeneity of the industry was also evidenced by the various economic surpluses generated. The survey illustrated that higher gross revenues did not necessarily translate into higher net revenues. Our analysis also showed that, on average, vessels in the trap fishery were able to cover their cash outlays, resulting in positive vessel income (i.e., financial profits). In Puerto Rico, annual financial profits ranged from $4,760 in the lowest trap tier to $32,467 in the highest tier, whereas in St. Thomas and St. John annual financial profits ranged from $3,744 in the lowest tier to $13,652 in the highest tier. In St. Croix, annual financial profits ranged between $9,229 and $15,781. The survey also showed that economic profits varied significantly across tiers. Economic profits measure residual income after deducting the remuneration required to keep the various factors of production in their existing employment. In Puerto Rico, annual economic profits ranged from ($9,339) in the lowest trap tier to $ 8,711 in the highest trap tier. In St. Thomas and St. John, annual economic profits ranged from ($7,920) in the highest tier to ($18,486) in the second highest tier. In St. Croix, annual economic profits ranged between ($7,453) to $10,674. The presence of positive financial profits and negative economic profits suggests that higher economic returns could be earned from a societal perspective by redirecting some of these scarce capital and human resources elsewhere in the economy. Furthermore, the presence of negative economic earnings is evidence that the fishery is overcapitalized and that steps need to be taken to ensure the long-run economic viability of the industry. The presence of positive financial returns provides managers with a window of opportunity to adopt policies that will strengthen the biological and economic performance of the fishery while minimizing any adverse impacts on local fishing communities. Finally, the document concludes by detailing how the costs and earnings information could be used to develop economic models that evaluate management proposals. (PDF contains 147 pages)