Modelling Spikes in Electricity Prices

uring periods of market stress, electricity prices can rise dramatically. Electricity retailers cannot pass these extreme prices on to customers because of retail price regulation. Improved prediction of these price spikes therefore is important for risk management. This paper builds a time-varying-probability Markov-switching model of Queensland electricity prices, aimed particularly at forecasting price spikes. Variables capturing demand and weather patterns are used to drive the transition probabilities. Unlike traditional Markov-switching models that assume normality of the prices in each state, the model presented here uses a generalised beta distribution to allow for the skewness in the distribution of electricity prices during high-price episodes.

Development and implementation of the areawide Dynamic ROad traffic NoisE (DRONE) simulator

This paper discusses the areawide Dynamic ROad traffic NoisE (DRONE) simulator, and its implementation as a tool for noise abatement policy evaluation. DRONE involves integrating a road traffic noise estimation model with a traffic simulator to estimate road traffic noise in urban networks. An integrated traffic simulation-noise estimation model provides an interface for direct input of traffic flow properties from simulation model to noise estimation model that in turn estimates the noise on a spatial and temporal scale. The output from DRONE is linked with a geographical information system for visual representation of noise levels in the form of noise contour maps.

Biological monitoring of occupational exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in prebake smelting

In 1984, the International Agency for Research on Cancer determined that working in the primary aluminium production process was associated with exposure to certain polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) that are probably carcinogenic to humans. Key sources of PAH exposure within the occupational environment of a prebake aluminium smelter are processes associated with use of coal-tar pitch. Despite the potential for exposure via inhalation, ingestion and dermal adsorption, to date occupational exposure limits exist only for airborne contaminants. This study, based at a prebake aluminium smelter in Queensland, Australia, compares exposures of workers who came in contact with PAHs from coal-tar pitch in the smelter’s anode plant (n = 69) and cell-reconstruction area (n = 28), and a non-production control group (n = 17). Literature relevant to PAH exposures in industry and methods of monitoring and assessing occupational hazards associated with these compounds are reviewed, and methods relevant to PAH exposure are discussed in the context of the study site. The study utilises air monitoring of PAHs to quantify exposure via the inhalation route and biological monitoring of 1-hydroxypyrene (1-OHP) in urine of workers to assess total body burden from all routes of entry. Exposures determined for similar exposure groups, sampled over three years, are compared with published occupational PAH exposure limits and/or guidelines. Results of paired personal air monitoring samples and samples collected for 1-OHP in urine monitoring do not correlate. Predictive ability of the benzene-soluble fraction (BSF) in personal air monitoring in relation to the 1-OHP levels in urine is poor (adjusted R2 < 1%) even after adjustment for potential confounders of smoking status and use of personal protective equipment. For static air BSF levels in the anode plant, the median was 0.023 mg/m3 (range 0.002–0.250), almost twice as high as in the cell-reconstruction area (median = 0.013 mg/m3, range 0.003–0.154). In contrast, median BSF personal exposure in the anode plant was 0.036 mg/m3 (range 0.003–0.563), significantly lower than the median measured in the reconstruction area (0.054 mg/m3, range 0.003–0.371) (p = 0.041). The observation that median 1-OHP levels in urine were significantly higher in the anode plant than in the reconstruction area (6.62 µmol/mol creatinine, range 0.09–33.44 and 0.17 µmol/mol creatinine, range 0.001–2.47, respectively) parallels the static air measurements of BSF rather than the personal air monitoring results (p < 0.001). Results of air measurements and biological monitoring show that tasks associated with paste mixing and anode forming in the forming area of the anode plant resulted in higher PAH exposure than tasks in the non-forming areas; median 1-OHP levels in urine from workers in the forming area (14.20 µmol/mol creatinine, range 2.02–33.44) were almost four times higher than those obtained from workers in the non-forming area (4.11 µmol/mol creatinine, range 0.09–26.99; p < 0.001). Results justify use of biological monitoring as an important adjunct to existing measures of PAH exposure in the aluminium industry. Although monitoring of 1-OHP in urine may not be an accurate measure of biological effect on an individual, it is a better indicator of total PAH exposure than BSF in air. In January 2005, interim study results prompted a plant management decision to modify control measures to reduce skin exposure. Comparison of 1-OHP in urine from workers pre- and post-modifications showed substantial downward trends. Exposure via the dermal route was identified as a contributor to overall dose. Reduction in 1-OHP urine concentrations achieved by reducing skin exposure demonstrate the importance of exposure via this alternative pathway. Finally, control measures are recommended to ameliorate risk associated with PAH exposure in the primary aluminium production process, and suggestions for future research include development of methods capable of more specifically monitoring carcinogenic constituents of PAH mixtures, such as benzo[a]pyrene.

A parallel computation of power system equations

Streaming SIMD Extensions (SSE) is a unique feature embedded in the Pentium III and P4 classes of microprocessors. By fully exploiting SSE, parallel algorithms can be implemented on a standard personal computer and a theoretical speedup of four can be achieved. In this paper, we demonstrate the implementation of a parallel LU matrix decomposition algorithm for solving power systems network equations with SSE and discuss advantages and disadvantages of this approach.

How do consumers react to physically larger models? Effects of model body size, weight control beliefs and product type on evaluations and body perceptions

The purpose of this article is to examine how a consumer’s weight control beliefs (WCB), a female advertising model’s body size (slim or large) and product type influence consumer evaluations and consumer body perceptions. The study uses an experiment of 371 consumers. The design of the experiment was a 2 (weight control belief: internal, external) X 2 (model size: larger sized, slim) X 2 (product type: weight controlling, non-weight controlling) between-participants factorial design. Results reveal two key contributions. First, larger sized models result in consumers feeling less pressure from society to be thin, viewing their actual shape as slimmer relative to viewing a slim model and wanting a thinner ideal body shape. Slim models result in the opposite effects. Second this research reveals a boundary condition for the extent to which endorser–product congruency theory can be generalized to endorsers of a larger body size. Results indicate that consumer WCB may be a useful variable to consider when marketers consider the use of larger models in advertising.

Smoothly attaching bow flows with constant vorticity

The free surface flow of a finite depth fluid past a semi-infinite body is considered. The fluid is assumed to have constant vorticity throughout and the free surface is assumed to attach smoothly to the front face of the body. Numerical solutions are found using a boundary integral method in the physical plane and it is shown that solutions exist for all supercritical Froude numbers. The related problem of the cusp-like flow due to a submerged sink in a corner is also considered. Vorticity is included in the flow and it is shown that the behaviour of the solutions is qualitatively the same as that found in the problem described above.

Matching cognitive styles to computer-based instruction : an approach for enhanced learning in electrical engineering

An approach aimed at enhancing learning by matching individual students' preferred cognitive styles to computer-based instructional (CBI) material is presented. This approach was used in teaching some components of a third-year unit in an electrical engineering course at the Queensland University of Technology. Cognitive style characteristics of perceiving and processing information were considered. The bimodal nature of cognitive styles (analytic/imager, analytic/verbalizer, wholist/imager and wholist/verbalizer) was examined in order to assess the full ramification of cognitive styles on learning. In a quasi-experimental format, students' cognitive styles were analysed by cognitive style analysis (CSA) software. On the basis of the CSA results the system defaulted students to either matched or mismatched CBI material. The consistently better performance by the matched group suggests potential for further investigations where the limitations cited in this paper are eliminated. Analysing the differences between cognitive styles on individual test tasks also suggests that certain test tasks may better suit certain cognitive styles.

Benchmarking local E-Government

Increasingly, almost everything we do in our daily lives is being influenced by information and communications technologies (ICTs) including the Internet. The task of governance is no exception with an increasing number of national, state, and local governments utilizing ICTs to support government operations, engage citizens, and provide government services. As with other things, the process of governance is now being prefixed with an “e”. E-governance can range from simple Web sites that convey basic information to complex sites that transform the customary ways of delivering all sorts of government services. In this respect local e-government is the form of e-governance that specifically focuses on the online delivery of suitable local services by local authorities. In practice local e-government reflects four dimensions, each one dealing with the functions of government itself. The four are: (a) e-services, the electronic delivery of government information, programs, and services often over the Internet; (b) e-management, the use of information technology to improve the management of government. This might range from streamlining business processes to improving the flow of information within government departments; (c) e-democracy the use of electronic communication vehicles, such as e-mail and the Internet, to increase citizen participation in the public decision-making process; (d) e-commerce, the exchange of money for goods and services over the Internet which might include citizens paying taxes and utility bills, renewing vehicle registrations, and paying for recreation programs, or government buying office supplies and auctioning surplus equipment (Cook, LaVigne, Pagano, Dawes, & Pardo, 2002). Commensurate with the rapid increase in the process of developing e-governance tools, there has been an increased interest in benchmarking the process of local e-governance. This benchmarking, which includes the processes involved in e-governance as well as the extent of e-governance adoption or take-up is important as it allows for improved processes and enables government agencies to move towards world best practice. It is within this context that this article discusses benchmarking local e-government. It brings together a number of discussions regarding the significance of benchmarking, best practices and actions for local e-government, and key elements of a successful local e-government project.

Developing the eclectic paradigm of internationalization on the issue of multinational contractors bidding for Australian infrastructure

Against a background of already thin markets in some sectors of major public sector infrastructure in Australia and the desire of the Australian federal government to leverage private finance, concerns about ensuring sufficient levels of competition are prompting federal government to seek new sources of in-bound foreign direct income - as part of attracting more foreign contractors and consortia to bid for Australian public sector major infrastructure. As a first step towards attracting greater overseas interest in the Australian public sector market infrastructure market, an improved understanding of the determinants of multinational contractors’ willingness to bid in this market is offered by Dunning’s eclectic paradigm and which have has been a dominant approach in international business for over 20 years and yet has been little used in the context of international contracting. This paper aims to develop Dunning’s eclectic framework and also gives a brief outline of a research plan to collect secondary data and primary data from international contractors around the globe in pursuance of testing the eclectic framework.

Fitness and fatness in childhood obesity : implications of physical activity

Overweight and obesity are a significant cause of poor health worldwide, particularly in conjunction with low levels of physical activity (PA). PA is health-protective and essential for the physical growth and development of children, promoting physical and psychological health while simultaneously increasing the probability of remaining active as an adult. However, many obese children and adolescents have a unique set of physiological, biomechanical, and neuromuscular barriers to PA that they must overcome. It is essential to understand the influence of these barriers on an obese child's motivation in order to exercise and tailor exercise programs to the special needs of this population. Chapter Outline • Introduction • Defining Physical Activity, Exercise, and Physical Fitness • Physical Activity, Physical Fitness, And Motor Competence In Obese Children • Physical Activity and Obesity in Children • Physical Fitness in Obese Children • Balance and Gait in Obese Children • Motor Competence in Obese Children • Physical Activity Guidelines for Obese Children • Clinical Assessment of the Obese Child • Physical Activity Characteristics: Mode • Physical Activity Characteristics: Intensity • Physical Activity Characteristics: Frequency • Physical Activity Characteristics: Duration • Conclusion

Optimal online prediction in adversarial environments

In many prediction problems, including those that arise in computer security and computational finance, the process generating the data is best modelled as an adversary with whom the predictor competes. Even decision problems that are not inherently adversarial can be usefully modeled in this way, since the assumptions are sufficiently weak that effective prediction strategies for adversarial settings are very widely applicable.