Global surveillance of cancer survival 1995-2009 : analysis of individual data for 25 676 887 patients from 279 population-based registries in 67 countries (CONCORD-2)

BACKGROUND: Worldwide data for cancer survival are scarce. We aimed to initiate worldwide surveillance of cancer survival by central analysis of population-based registry data, as a metric of the effectiveness of health systems, and to inform global policy on cancer control. METHODS: Individual tumour records were submitted by 279 population-based cancer registries in 67 countries for 25·7 million adults (age 15-99 years) and 75 000 children (age 0-14 years) diagnosed with cancer during 1995-2009 and followed up to Dec 31, 2009, or later. We looked at cancers of the stomach, colon, rectum, liver, lung, breast (women), cervix, ovary, and prostate in adults, and adult and childhood leukaemia. Standardised quality control procedures were applied; errors were corrected by the registry concerned. We estimated 5-year net survival, adjusted for background mortality in every country or region by age (single year), sex, and calendar year, and by race or ethnic origin in some countries. Estimates were age-standardised with the International Cancer Survival Standard weights. FINDINGS: 5-year survival from colon, rectal, and breast cancers has increased steadily in most developed countries. For patients diagnosed during 2005-09, survival for colon and rectal cancer reached 60% or more in 22 countries around the world; for breast cancer, 5-year survival rose to 85% or higher in 17 countries worldwide. Liver and lung cancer remain lethal in all nations: for both cancers, 5-year survival is below 20% everywhere in Europe, in the range 15-19% in North America, and as low as 7-9% in Mongolia and Thailand. Striking rises in 5-year survival from prostate cancer have occurred in many countries: survival rose by 10-20% between 1995-99 and 2005-09 in 22 countries in South America, Asia, and Europe, but survival still varies widely around the world, from less than 60% in Bulgaria and Thailand to 95% or more in Brazil, Puerto Rico, and the USA. For cervical cancer, national estimates of 5-year survival range from less than 50% to more than 70%; regional variations are much wider, and improvements between 1995-99 and 2005-09 have generally been slight. For women diagnosed with ovarian cancer in 2005-09, 5-year survival was 40% or higher only in Ecuador, the USA, and 17 countries in Asia and Europe. 5-year survival for stomach cancer in 2005-09 was high (54-58%) in Japan and South Korea, compared with less than 40% in other countries. By contrast, 5-year survival from adult leukaemia in Japan and South Korea (18-23%) is lower than in most other countries. 5-year survival from childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia is less than 60% in several countries, but as high as 90% in Canada and four European countries, which suggests major deficiencies in the management of a largely curable disease. INTERPRETATION: International comparison of survival trends reveals very wide differences that are likely to be attributable to differences in access to early diagnosis and optimum treatment. Continuous worldwide surveillance of cancer survival should become an indispensable source of information for cancer patients and researchers and a stimulus for politicians to improve health policy and health-care systems. FUNDING: Canadian Partnership Against Cancer (Toronto, Canada), Cancer Focus Northern Ireland (Belfast, UK), Cancer Institute New South Wales (Sydney, Australia), Cancer Research UK (London, UK), Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Atlanta, GA, USA), Swiss Re (London, UK), Swiss Cancer Research foundation (Bern, Switzerland), Swiss Cancer League (Bern, Switzerland), and University of Kentucky (Lexington, KY, USA).

Évolution de la gestion pharmacologique de la polyarthrite rhumatoïde et impact sur le risque de fracture ostéoporotique non vertébrale

Au cours des dernières années, le développement des connaissances au niveau de l’étiologie de la maladie ainsi que l’arrivée de nouveaux médicaments et de lignes directrices guidant la pratique clinique sont susceptibles d’avoir entraîné une meilleure gestion de la polyarthrite rhumatoïde (PAR) et de l’ostéoporose, une comorbidité fréquente chez ces patients. Dans cette thèse, trois questions de recherche sont étudiées à l’aide des banques de données administratives québécoises (RAMQ, MED-ÉCHO). Une première étude documente l’utilisation des médicaments pour la PAR au Québec. À ce jour, il s’agit de la seule étude canadienne à rapporter les tendances d’utilisation des DMARD (disease-modifying antirheumatic drug) biologiques depuis leur introduction dans la pratique clinique. Au cours de la période à l’étude (2002-2008), l’utilisation de DMARD (synthétiques et biologiques) a augmenté légèrement dans la population atteinte de PAR (1,9%, 95% CI : 1,1 - 2,8). Cependant, malgré la présence de recommandations cliniques soulignant l’importance de commencer un traitement rapidement, et la couverture de ces traitements par le régime général d’assurance médicaments, les résultats démontrent une initiation sous-optimale des DMARD chez les patients nouvellement diagnostiqués (probabilité d’initiation à 12 mois : 38,5%). L’initiation de DMARD était beaucoup plus fréquente lorsqu’un rhumatologue était impliqué dans la provision des soins (OR : 4,31, 95% CI : 3,73 - 4,97). Concernant les DMARD biologiques, le facteur le plus fortement associé avec leur initiation était l’année calendrier. Chez les sujets diagnostiqués en 2002, 1,2 sur 1 000 ont initié un DMARD biologique moins d’un an après leur diagnostic. Pour ceux qui ont été diagnostiqués en 2007, le taux était de 13 sur 1 000. Les résultats démontrent que si la gestion pharmacologique de la PAR s’est améliorée au cours de la période à l’étude, elle demeure tout de même sous-optimale. Assurer un meilleur accès aux rhumatologues pourrait, semble-t-il, être une stratégie efficace pour améliorer la qualité des soins chez les patients atteints de PAR. Dans une deuxième étude, l’association entre l’utilisation des DMARD biologiques et le risque de fractures ostéoporotiques non vertébrales chez des patients PAR âgés de 50 ans et plus a été rapportée. Puisque l’inflammation chronique résultant de la PAR interfère avec le remodelage osseux et que les DMARD biologiques, en plus de leur effet anti-inflammatoire et immunosuppresseur, sont des modulateurs de l’activité cellulaire des ostéoclastes et des ostéoblastes pouvant possiblement mener à la prévention des pertes de densité minérale osseuse (DMO), il était attendu que leur utilisation réduirait le risque de fracture. Une étude de cas-témoin intra-cohorte a été conduite. Bien qu’aucune réduction du risque de fracture suivant l’utilisation de DMARD biologiques n’ait pu être démontrée (OR : 1,03, 95% CI : 0,42 - 2,53), l’étude établit le taux d’incidence de fractures ostéoporotiques non vertébrales dans une population canadienne atteinte de PAR (11/1 000 personnes - années) et souligne le rôle d’importants facteurs de risque. La prévalence élevée de l’ostéoporose dans la population atteinte de PAR justifie que l’on accorde plus d’attention à la prévention des fractures. Finalement, une troisième étude explore l’impact de la dissémination massive, en 2002, des lignes directrices du traitement de l’ostéoporose au Canada sur la gestion pharmacologique de l’ostéoporose et sur les taux d’incidence de fractures ostéoporotiques non vertébrales chez une population de patients PAR âgés de 50 ans et plus entre 1998 et 2008. Étant donné la disponibilité des traitements efficaces pour l’ostéoporose depuis le milieu des années 1990 et l’évolution des lignes directrices de traitement, une réduction du taux de fractures était attendue. Quelques études canadiennes ont démontré une réduction des fractures suivant une utilisation étendue des médicaments contre l’ostéoporose et de l’ostéodensitométrie dans une population générale, mais aucune ne s’est attardée plus particulièrement sur une population adulte atteinte de PAR. Dans cette étude observationnelle utilisant une approche de série chronologique, aucune réduction du taux de fracture après 2002 (période suivant la dissémination des lignes directrices) n’a pu être démontrée. Cependant, l’utilisation des médicaments pour l’ostéoporose, le passage d’ostéodensitométrie, ainsi que la provision de soins pour l’ostéoporose en post-fracture ont augmenté. Cette étude démontre que malgré des années de disponibilité de traitements efficaces et d’investissement dans le développement et la promotion de lignes directrices de traitement, l’effet bénéfique au niveau de la réduction des fractures ne s’est toujours pas concrétisé dans la population atteinte de PAR, au cours de la période à l’étude. Ces travaux sont les premiers à examiner, à l’aide d’une banque de données administratives, des sujets atteints de PAR sur une période s’étalant sur 11 ans, permettant non seulement l’étude des changements de pratique clinique suivant l’apparition de nouveaux traitements ou bien de nouvelles lignes directrices, mais également de leur impact sur la santé. De plus, via l’étude des déterminants de traitement, les résultats offrent des pistes de solution afin de combler l’écart entre la pratique observée et les recommandations cliniques. Enfin, les résultats de ces études bonifient la littérature concernant la qualité des soins pharmacologiques chez les patients PAR et de la prévention des fractures.

Response of the northern stratospheric polar vortex to the seasonal alignment of QBO phase transitions

This study considers the strength of the Northern Hemisphere Holton-Tan effect (HTE) in terms of the phase alignment of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) with respect to the annual cycle. Using the ERA-40 Reanalysis, it is found that the early winter (Nov–Dec) and late winter (Feb–Mar) relation between QBO phase and the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex is optimized for subsets of the 44-year record that are chosen on the basis of the seasonality of QBO phase transitions at the 30 hPa level. The timing of phase transitions serves as a proxy for changes in the vertical structure of the QBO over the whole depth of the tropical stratosphere. The statistical significance of the Nov–Dec (Feb–Mar) HTE is greatest when 30 hPa QBO phase transitions occur 9–14 (4–9) months prior to the January of the NH winter in question. This suggests that there exists for both early and late winter a vertical structure of tropical stratospheric winds that is most effective at influencing the interannual variability of the polar vortex, and that an early (late) winter HTE is associated with an early (late) progression of QBO phase towards that structure. It is also shown that the seasonality of QBO phase transitions at 30 hPa varies on a decadal timescale, with transitions during the first half of the calendar year being relatively more common during the first half of the tropical radiosonde wind record. Combining these two results suggests that decadal changes in HTE strength could result from the changing seasonality of QBO phase transitions. Citation: Anstey, J. A., and T. G. Shepherd (2008), Response of the northern stratospheric polar vortex to the seasonal alignment of QBO phase transitions, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L22810, doi:10.1029/2008GL035721.

A global picture of the seasonal persistence of stratospheric ozone anomalies

Interannual anomalies in vertical profiles of stratospheric ozone, in both equatorial and extratropical regions, have been shown to exhibit a strong seasonal persistence, namely, extended temporal autocorrelations during certain times of the calendar year. Here we investigate the relationship between this seasonal persistence of equatorial and extratropical ozone anomalies using the SAGE‐corrected SBUV data set, which provides a long‐term ozone profile time series. For the regions of the stratosphere where ozone is under purely dynamical or purely photochemical control, the seasonal persistence of equatorial and extratropical ozone anomalies arises from distinct mechanisms but preserves an anticorrelation between tropical and extratropical anomalies established during the winter period. In the 16–10 hPa layer, where ozone is controlled by both dynamical and photochemical processes, equatorial ozone anomalies exhibit a completely different behavior compared to ozone anomalies above and below in terms of variability, seasonal persistence, and especially the relationship between equatorial and extratropical ozone. Cross‐latitude‐time correlations show that for the 16–10 hPa layer, Northern Hemisphere (NH) extratropical ozone anomalies show the same variability as equatorial ozone anomalies but lagged by 3–6 months. High correlation coefficients are observed during the time frame of seasonal persistence of ozone anomalies, which is June– December for equatorial ozone and shifts by approximately 3–6 months when going from the equatorial region to NH extratropics. Thus in the transition zone between dynamical and photochemical control, equatorial ozone anomalies established in boreal summer/autumn are mirrored by NH extratropical ozone anomalies with a time lag similar to transport time scales. Equatorial ozone anomalies established in boreal winter/spring are likewise correlated with ozone anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere extratropics with a time lag comparable to transport time scales, similar to what is seen in the NH. However, the correlations between equatorial and SH extratropical ozone in the 10–16 hPa layer are weak.

Do US macroeconomic forecasters exaggerate their differences?

Application of the Bernhardt et al. (Journal of Financial Economics 2006; 80(3): 657–675) test of herding to the calendar-year annual output growth and inflation forecasts suggests forecasters tend to exaggerate their differences, except at the shortest horizon, when they tend to herd. We consider whether these types of behaviour can help to explain the puzzle that professional forecasters sometimes make point predictions and histogram forecasts which are mutually inconsistent.

Trends in systemic lupus erythematosus mortality rates in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil from 1985 to 2004

Objectives To estimate mortality rates and mortality trends from SLE in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Material and methods The official data bank was used to study all deaths occurred from 1985 to 2004 in which SLE was mentioned as the underlying cause of death. Besides the overall mortality rate, the annual gender- and age-specific mortality rates were estimated for each calendar year by age bracket (0-19 years, 20-39 years, 40-59 years and over 60 years) and for the sub-periods 1985-1995 (first) and 1996-2004 (second), by decades. Chi-square test was used to compare the mortality rates between the two periods, as well the mortality rates according to educational level considering years of study. Pearson correlation coefficient test was used to analyse mortality trends. The crude rates were adjusted for age by the direct method, using the standard Brazilian population in 2000. Results A total of 2,601 deaths (90% female) attributed to SLE were analysed. The mean age at death was significantly higher in the second than in the first sub-period (36.6 +/- 15.6 years vs. 33.9 +/- 14.0 years; p<0.001). The overall adjusted mortality rate was 3.8 deaths/million habitants/year for the entire period and 3.4 deaths/million inhabitants/year for the first and 4.0 deaths/million inhabitants/year for the second sub-period (p<0.001). In each calendar year, the mortality rate was significantly lower for the better educated group. Throughout the period, there was a significant increase in mortality rates only among women over 40. Conclusion SLE patients living in the state of Silo Paulo still die at younger ages than those living in developed countries. Our data do not support the theory that there was an improvement in the SLE mortality rate in the last 20 years in the state of Sao Paulo. Socio-economic factors, such as the difficulty to get medical care and adequate treatment, may be the main factors to explain the worst prognosis for our patients.

Assessing the effects of vector control on dengue transmission

The dengue virus is an arbovirus transmitted to humans through mosquito Aedes aegypti. To describe the dynamics of dengue disease within these two populations we develop a compartment model taking into account chemical controls and mechanical control applied on the mosquitoes, which are the currently available controlling mechanisms to prevent dengue disease. To mimic seasonal variations, some parameters of the model are allowed to depend on time in order to divide a calendar year in favorable and unfavorable periods regarded to the development of vector population. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Fecundidad = Fertility

Incluye CD-ROM

Preliminary overview of Caribbean economies, 2003-2004

Outlines the economic performance of Caribbean economies over the calendar year 2003. Discusses the aggregate showing and general trends of the Organisation of Eastern Caribbean States. Provides a brief overview of each member State's fiscal and monetary policies; external sector; inflation, unemployment, and wages; and sectors of activity. Describes the general trends among the other Caribbean countries. Presents detailed overviews of each country's performance over the period as with the OECS member states.

Intervention to reduce C-reactive protein determination requests for acute infections at an emergency department

Introduction C-reactive protein (CRP) levels rise during inflammatory processes and have been ordered for rheumatic disease follow-up since the 1950s. The number of tests ordered in the emergency setting has increased, but without evident improvement in medical care quality. Objective To determine the pattern of CRP determinations in the emergency department (ED) of a university hospital in Sao Paulo, Brazil, and to evaluate the effect of an intervention with staff and students about the best use of the test in the ED. Methods Data regarding CRP testing requests, related diagnoses and the number of monthly consultations in the hospital ED were analysed before and after the intervention. Because of an increase in CRP measurement requests from 2007 to 2009, the author started discussing the role of CRP determinations in the medical decision-making process in early 2010. Staff and faculty members openly discussed the pattern of requests in the hospital and related current medical literature. During 2010, the medical staff worked as multipliers to change the behaviour of new students and residents. The results of the first 4 months after the intervention were presented at another general meeting in July 2010. Results From 2007 to 2009, there were 11 786 CRP measurement requests with a clear exponential trend. After the intervention, during the calendar year 2010, there was a 48% reduction in adjusted annual CRP requests. Pneumonia, fever and urinary tract infections were the most common reasons for CRP requests. Discussion Inexpensive, well-directed, interactive educational interventions may affect professional behaviour and curb rates of laboratory tests.

Formazione e Competenze Professionali: una ricerca empirica sui Cassaintegrati in deroga della regione Emilia Romagna

The general theme of the present inquiry concerns the role of training and continuous updating of knowledge and skills in relation to the concept of employability and social vulnerability. The empirical research has affected the entire calendar year 2010, namely from 13 February 2010 to December 31, 2010: data refer to a very specific context or to the course funded by the Emilia Romagna region and targeted to employees in cassintegrazione notwithstanding domiciled in the region. The investigations were performed in a vocational training scheme accredited by the Emilia Romagna for the provision of publicly funded training courses. The quantitative data collected are limited to the region and distributed in all the provinces of Emilia Romagna; It addressed the issue of the role of continuing education throughout life and the importance of updating knowledge and skills, such as privileged instruments to address the instability of the labor market and what strategy to reduce the risk unemployment. Based on the different strategies that the employee puts in place during their professional careers, we introduce two concepts that are more common in the so-called knowledge society, namely the concept of social vulnerability and employability. In modern organizations becomes relevant knowledge they bring workers and the relationships that develop between people and allowing exponentially and disseminate such knowledge and skills. The knowledge thus becomes the first productive force, defined by Davenport and Prusak (1998) as "fluid combination of experience, values, contextual information and specialist knowledge that provides a framework for the evaluation and assimilation of new experience and new information ". Learning at work is a by stable explicit and conscious, and even enjoyable for everyone, especially outside of a training intervention. It then goes on to address the specific issue of training, under the current labor market increasingly deconstructed.

Little evidence that hepatitis C virus leads to a higher risk of mortality in the absence of cirrhosis and excess alcohol intake: the Swiss Hepatitis C Cohort Study

The objective of this study was to describe the all-cause mortality of participants in the Swiss Hepatitis C Cohort compared to the Swiss general population. Patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection attending secondary and tertiary care centres in Switzerland. One thousand six hundred and forty-five patients with HCV infection were followed up for a mean of over 2 years. We calculated all-cause standardized mortality ratios (SMR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) using age, sex and calendar year-specific Swiss all-cause mortality rates. Multivariable Poisson regression was used to model the variability of SMR by cirrhotic status, HCV genotype, infection with hepatitis B virus or HIV, injection drug use and alcohol intake. Sixty-one deaths were recorded out of 1645 participants. The crude all-cause SMR was 4.5 (95% CI: 3.5-5.8). Patients co-infected with HIV had a crude SMR of 20 (95% CI: 11.1-36.1). The SMR of 1.1 (95% CI: 0.63-2.03) for patients who were not cirrhotic, not infected with HBV or HIV, did not inject drugs, were not heavy alcohol consumers (

Risk factors for treatment-limiting toxicities in patients starting nevirapine-containing antiretroviral therapy

BACKGROUND: This collaboration of seven observational clinical cohorts investigated risk factors for treatment-limiting toxicities in both antiretroviral-naive and experienced patients starting nevirapine-based combination antiretroviral therapy (NVPc). METHODS: Patients starting NVPc after 1 January 1998 were included. CD4 cell count at starting NVPc was classified as high (>400/microl/>250/microl for men/women, respectively) or low. Cox models were used to investigate risk factors for discontinuations due to hypersensitivity reactions (HSR, n = 6547) and discontinuation of NVPc due to treatment-limiting toxicities and/or patient/physician choice (TOXPC, n = 10,186). Patients were classified according to prior antiretroviral treatment experience and CD4 cell count/viral load at start NVPc. Models were stratified by cohort and adjusted for age, sex, nadir CD4 cell count, calendar year of starting NVPc and mode of transmission. RESULTS: Median time from starting NVPc to TOXPC and HSR were 162 days [interquartile range (IQR) 31-737] and 30 days (IQR 17-60), respectively. In adjusted Cox analyses, compared to naive patients with a low CD4 cell count, treatment-experienced patients with high CD4 cell count and viral load more than 400 had a significantly increased risk for HSR [hazard ratio 1.45, confidence interval (CI) 1.03-2.03] and TOXPC within 18 weeks (hazard ratio 1.34, CI 1.08-1.67). In contrast, treatment-experienced patients with high CD4 cell count and viral load less than 400 had no increased risk for HSR 1.10 (0.82-1.46) or TOXPC within 18 weeks (hazard ratio 0.94, CI 0.78-1.13). CONCLUSION: Our results suggest it may be relatively well tolerated to initiate NVPc in antiretroviral-experienced patients with high CD4 cell counts provided there is no detectable viremia.

Zidovudine impairs immunological recovery on first-line antiretroviral therapy: collaborative analysis of cohort studies in southern Africa

OBJECTIVES Zidovudine (ZDV) is recommended for first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) in resource-limited settings. ZDV may, however, lead to anemia and impaired immunological response. We compared CD4+ cell counts over 5 years between patients starting ART with and without ZDV in southern Africa. DESIGN Cohort study. METHODS Patients aged at least 16 years who started first-line ART in South Africa, Botswana, Zambia, or Lesotho were included. We used linear mixed-effect models to compare CD4+ cell count trajectories between patients on ZDV-containing regimens and patients on other regimens, censoring follow-up at first treatment change. Impaired immunological recovery, defined as a CD4+ cell count below 100 cells/μl at 1 year, was assessed in logistic regression. Analyses were adjusted for baseline CD4+ cell count and hemoglobin level, age, sex, type of regimen, viral load monitoring, and calendar year. RESULTS A total of 72,597 patients starting ART, including 19,758 (27.2%) on ZDV, were analyzed. Patients on ZDV had higher CD4+ cell counts (150 vs.128 cells/μl) and hemoglobin level (12.0 vs. 11.0 g/dl) at baseline, and were less likely to be women than those on other regimens. Adjusted differences in CD4+ cell counts between regimens containing and not containing ZDV were -16 cells/μl [95% confidence interval (CI) -18 to -14] at 1 year and -56 cells/μl (95% CI -59 to -52) at 5 years. Impaired immunological recovery was more likely with ZDV compared to other regimens (odds ratio 1.40, 95% CI 1.22-1.61). CONCLUSION In southern Africa, ZDV is associated with inferior immunological recovery compared to other backbones. Replacing ZDV with another nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor could avoid unnecessary switches to second-line ART.

Clustering of HCV coinfections on HIV phylogeny indicates domestic and sexual transmission of HCV

BACKGROUND: HCV coinfection remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality among HIV-infected individuals and its incidence has increased dramatically in HIV-infected men who have sex with men(MSM). METHODS: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) coinfection in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study(SHCS) was studied by combining clinical data with HIV-1 pol-sequences from the SHCS Drug Resistance Database(DRDB). We inferred maximum-likelihood phylogenetic trees, determined Swiss HIV-transmission pairs as monophyletic patient pairs, and then considered the distribution of HCV on those pairs. RESULTS: Among the 9748 patients in the SHCS-DRDB with known HCV status, 2768(28%) were HCV-positive. Focusing on subtype B(7644 patients), we identified 1555 potential HIV-1 transmission pairs. There, we found that, even after controlling for transmission group, calendar year, age and sex, the odds for an HCV coinfection were increased by an odds ratio (OR) of 3.2 [95% confidence interval (CI) 2.2, 4.7) if a patient clustered with another HCV-positive case. This strong association persisted if transmission groups of intravenous drug users (IDUs), MSMs and heterosexuals (HETs) were considered separately(in all cases OR >2). Finally we found that HCV incidence was increased by a hazard ratio of 2.1 (1.1, 3.8) for individuals paired with an HCV-positive partner. CONCLUSIONS: Patients whose HIV virus is closely related to the HIV virus of HIV/HCV-coinfected patients have a higher risk for carrying or acquiring HCV themselves. This indicates the occurrence of domestic and sexual HCV transmission and allows the identification of patients with a high HCV-infection risk.