How useful is expert opinion for predicting the distribution of a species within and beyond the region of expertise? A case study using brush-tailed rock-wallabiesPetrogale penicillata

1. Species' distribution modelling relies on adequate data sets to build reliable statistical models with high predictive ability. However, the money spent collecting empirical data might be better spent on management. A less expensive source of species' distribution information is expert opinion. This study evaluates expert knowledge and its source. In particular, we determine whether models built on expert knowledge apply over multiple regions or only within the region where the knowledge was derived. 2. The case study focuses on the distribution of the brush-tailed rock-wallaby Petrogale penicillata in eastern Australia. We brought together from two biogeographically different regions substantial and well-designed field data and knowledge from nine experts. We used a novel elicitation tool within a geographical information system to systematically collect expert opinions. The tool utilized an indirect approach to elicitation, asking experts simpler questions about observable rather than abstract quantities, with measures in place to identify uncertainty and offer feedback. Bayesian analysis was used to combine field data and expert knowledge in each region to determine: (i) how expert opinion affected models based on field data and (ii) how similar expert-informed models were within regions and across regions. 3. The elicitation tool effectively captured the experts' opinions and their uncertainties. Experts were comfortable with the map-based elicitation approach used, especially with graphical feedback. Experts tended to predict lower values of species occurrence compared with field data. 4. Across experts, consensus on effect sizes occurred for several habitat variables. Expert opinion generally influenced predictions from field data. However, south-east Queensland and north-east New South Wales experts had different opinions on the influence of elevation and geology, with these differences attributable to geological differences between these regions. 5. Synthesis and applications. When formulated as priors in Bayesian analysis, expert opinion is useful for modifying or strengthening patterns exhibited by empirical data sets that are limited in size or scope. Nevertheless, the ability of an expert to extrapolate beyond their region of knowledge may be poor. Hence there is significant merit in obtaining information from local experts when compiling species' distribution models across several regions.

When and how to treat pulmonary non-tuberculous mycobacterial diseases

Nontuberculous mycobacteria are ubiquitous environmental organisms that have been recognised as a cause of pulmonary infection for over 50 years. Traditionally patients have had underlying risk factors for development of disease; however the proportion of apparently immunocompetent patients involved appears to be rising. Not all patients culture-positive for mycobacteria will have progressive disease, making the diagnosis difficult, though criteria to aid in this process are available. The two main forms of disease are cavitary disease (usually involving the upper lobes) and fibronodular bronchiectasis (predominantly middle and lingular lobes). For patients with disease, combination antibiotic therapy for 12-24 months is generally required for successful treatment, and this may be accompanied by drug intolerances and side effects. Published success rates range from 30-82%. As the progression of disease is variable, for some patients, attention to pulmonary hygiene and underlying diseases without immediate antimycobacterial therapy may be more appropriate. Surgery can be a useful adjunct, though is associated with risks. Randomised controlled trials in well described patients would provide stronger evidence-based data to guide therapy of NTM lung diseases, and thus are much needed.

Homegardening as a panacea : a case study of South Tarawa

The Republic of Kiribati is a small, highly infertile Pacific Island nation and is one of the most challenging locations to attempt to support dense urban populations. Kiribati, like other nations in the Pacific, faces an urban future where food insecurity, unemployment, waste management and malnutrition will become increasing issues. Homegardening is suggested as one way to address many of these problems. However, the most recent study on agriculture production in urban centres in Kiribati shows that, in general, intensive cultivation of homegardens is not a common practice. This disparity between theory and practice creates an opportunity to re-examine homegardening in Kiribati and, more broadly, in the Pacific. This paper examines the practice of homegardening in urban centres in Kiribati and explores reasons why change has or has not occurred through interviews with homegardeners and government/donor representives. Results show that homegardening has increased significantly in the past five years, largely because of the promotion of homegardens and organic composting systems by donor organisations. While findings further endorse homegardening as an excellent theoretical solution to many of the problems that confront urban settlements in Kiribati and the Pacific, it raises additional questions regarding the continuation of homegarden schemes beyond donor support programmes.

Emergency department surge capacity : Recommendations of the Australasian surge strategy working group

Background For more than a decade emergency medicine organizations have produced guidelines, training and leadership for disaster management. However to date, there have been limited guidelines for emergency physicians needing to provide a rapid response to a surge in demand. The aim of this study is to identify strategies which may guide surge management in the Emergency Department. Method A working group of individuals experienced in disaster medicine from the Australasian College for Emergency Medicine Disaster Medicine Subcommittee (the Australasian Surge Strategy Working Group) was established to undertake this work. The Working Group used a modified Delphi technique to examine response actions in surge situations. The Working Group identified underlying assumptions from epidemiological and empirical understanding and then identified remedial strategies from literature and from personal experience and collated these within domains of space, staff, supplies, and system operation. Findings These recommendations detail 22 potential actions available to an emergency physician working in the context of surge. The Working Group also provides detailed guidance on surge recognition, triage, patient flow through the emergency department and clinical goals and practices. Discussion These strategies provide guidance to emergency physicians confronting the challenges of a surge in demand. The paper also identifies areas that merit future research including the measurement of surge capacity, constraints to strategy implementation, validation of surge strategies and measurement of strategy impacts on throughput, cost, and quality of care.

Enhancement of DNA repair using topical T4 endonuclease V does not inhibit melanoma formation in Cdk4R24C/R24C/Tyr-NrasQ61K mice following neonatal UVR

To further investigate the use of DNA repair-enhancing agents for skin cancer prevention, we treated Cdk4R24C/R24C/NrasQ61K mice topically with the T4 endonuclease V DNA repair enzyme (known as Dimericine) immediately prior to neonatal ultraviolet radiation (UVR) exposure, which has a powerful effect in exacerbating melanoma development in the mouse model. Dimericine has been shown to reduce the incidence of basal-cell and squamous cell carcinoma. Unexpectedly, we saw no difference in penetrance or age of onset of melanoma after neonatal UVR between Dimericine-treated and control animals, although the drug reduced DNA damage and cellular proliferation in the skin. Interestingly, epidermal melanocytes removed cyclobutane pyrimidine dimers (CPDs) more efficiently than surrounding keratinocytes. Our study indicates that neonatal UVR-initiated melanomas may be driven by mechanisms other than solely that of a large CPD load and/or their inefficient repair. This is further suggestive of different mechanisms by which UVR may enhance the transformation of keratinocytes and melanocytes.

Poly-immunoglobulin receptor-mediated transport of IgA into the male genital tract is important for clearance of chlamydia muridarum infection

Problem: Chlamydia trachomatis is the most common sexually transmitted infection worldwide. While infection in females requires a Th1 response for clearance, such a response in males may disrupt the immune privileged nature of the male reproductive tract, potentially contributing to infertility. Method of study: We investigated the role of IgA in protection against an intrapenile Chlamydia muridarum infection of C57BL/6 and pIgR−/− mice. Results: Here, we show that the poly immunoglobulin receptor is the main pathway for IgA transport into the male reproductive tract. The high levels of IgA seen in prostatic fluid of wild-type mice correlate with reduction in chlamydial infection both in vitro and in vivo. Conclusion: These findings indicate that a Chlamydia vaccine that induces neutralizing IgA in the prostate will aid in the protection against infection in males.

The paradox of transparency : short-termism and the institutionalisation of Australian capital markets

As the ultimate corporate decision-makers, directors have an impact on the investment time horizons of the corporations they govern. How they make investment decisions has been profoundly influenced by the expansion of the investment chain and the increasing concentration of share ownership in institutional hands. By examining agency in light of legal theory, we highlight that the board is in fact sui generis and not an agent of shareholders. Consequently, transparency can lead to directors being 'captured' by institutional investor objectives and timeframes, potentially to the detriment of the corporation as a whole. The counter-intuitive conclusion is that transparency may, under certain conditions, undermine good corporate governance and lead to excessive short-termism.

Randomized controlled trial of cognitive-behavioural therapy for coexisting depression and alcohol problems : short-term outcome

AIMS: Alcohol use disorders and depression co-occur frequently and are associated with poorer outcomes than when either condition occurs alone. The present study (Depression and Alcohol Integrated and Single-focused Interventions; DAISI) aimed to compare the effectiveness of brief intervention, single-focused and integrated psychological interventions for treatment of coexisting depression and alcohol use problems. METHODS: Participants (n = 284) with current depressive symptoms and hazardous alcohol use were assessed and randomly allocated to one of four individually delivered interventions: (i) a brief intervention only (single 90-minute session) with an integrated focus on depression and alcohol, or followed by a further nine 1-hour sessions with (ii) an alcohol focus; (iii) a depression focus; or (iv) an integrated focus. Follow-up assessments occurred 18 weeks after baseline. RESULTS: Compared with the brief intervention, 10 sessions were associated with greater reductions in average drinks per week, average drinking days per week and maximum consumption on 1 day. No difference in duration of treatment was found for depression outcomes. Compared with single-focused interventions, integrated treatment was associated with a greater reduction in drinking days and level of depression. For men, the alcohol-focused rather than depression-focused intervention was associated with a greater reduction in average drinks per day and drinks per week and an increased level of general functioning. Women showed greater improvements on each of these variables when they received depression-focused rather than alcohol-focused treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Integrated treatment may be superior to single-focused treatment for coexisting depression and alcohol problems, at least in the short term. Gender differences between single-focused depression and alcohol treatments warrant further study.

In vivo confocal microscopy of the bulbar conjunctiva

Background: The aim of this work is to develop a more complete qualitative and quantitative understanding of the in vivo histology of the human bulbar conjunctiva. Methods: Laser scanning confocal microscopy (LSCM) was used to observe and measure morphological characteristics of the bulbar conjunctiva of 11 healthy human volunteer subjects. Results: The superficial epithelial layer of the bulbar conjunctiva is seen as a mass of small cell nuclei. Cell borders are sometimes visible. The light grey borders of basal epithelial cells are clearly visible, but nuclei can not be seen. The conjunctival stroma is comprised of a dense meshwork of white fibres, through which traverse blood vessels containing cellular elements. Orifices at the epithelial surface may represent goblet cells that have opened and expelled their contents. Goblet cells are also observed in the deeper epithelial layers, as well as conjunctival microcysts and mature forms of Langerhans cells. The bulbar conjunctiva has a mean thickness of 32.9 1.1 mm, and a superficial and basal epithelial cell density of 2212 782 and 2368 741 cells/ mm2, respectively. Overall goblet and mature Langerhans cell densities are 111 58 and 23 25 cells/mm2, respectively. Conclusions: LSCM is a powerful technique for studying the human bulbar conjunctiva in vivo and quantifying key aspects of cell morphology. The observations presented here may serve as a useful marker against which changes in conjunctival morphology due to disease, surgery, drug therapy or contact lens wear can be assessed.

Intraocular pressure in keratoconus

Aims: To investigate IOP measurements with the dynamic contour tonometer (DCT) and non contact tonometer (NCT) in subjects with keratoconus. Methods: Twenty keratoconic subjects and 20 age-matched control subjects had IOP measurements taken using DCT and NCT instruments. Central and offcentre measures were taken with the DCT in order to highlight any systematic errors associated with corneal biomechanical factors. Measures of anterior and posterior corneal topography and thickness were also taken for each subject. Results: No significant difference was found between the central and off-centre DCT IOP readings for the keratoconics and age-matched controls (p>0.05). The average DCT IOP for the keratoconics was 14.2 ± 1.4 mmHg and for the agematched controls was 14.2 ± 1.6 mmHg. However, the average NCT readings differed significantly (p<0.001) between the keratoconics (9.2 ± 1.5 mmHg) and age-matched controls (12.9 ± 2.4 mmHg). DCT IOP showed no significant (p>0.05) correlation with the severity of keratoconus, as determined through measures of corneal topography and thickness. NCT IOP was correlated significantly with certain measures of corneal curvature and thickness in the keratoconic population. The difference between DCT and NCT IOP was strongly correlated with measures of corneal topography and thickness, with differences increasing for more advanced keratoconus. Conclusions: The measurements from the DCT do not appear to be dependent upon corneal factors, unlike the NCT. The presence or severity of keratoconus was not correlated with DCT IOP values.

Depression, anxiety and body image after treatment for invasive stage one epithelial ovarian cancer

Background: Diagnosis of epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) in young women has major implications including those to their reproductive potential. We evaluated depression, anxiety and body image in patients with stage I EOC treated with fertility sparing surgery (FSS) or radical surgery (RS). We also investigated fertility outcomes after FSS.----- Methods: A retrospective study was undertaken in which 62 patients completed questionnaires related to anxiety, depression, body image and fertility outcomes. Additional information on adjuvant therapy after FSS and RS and demographic details were abstracted from medical records. Both bi and multivariate regression models were used to assess the relationship between demographic, clinical and pathological results and scores for anxiety, depression and body image.----- Results: Thirty-nine patients underwent RS and the rest, FSS. The percentage of patients reporting elevated anxiety and depression (subscores ≥ 11) were 27 % and 5% respectively. The median (inter quartile range) score for body image scale (BIS) was 6 (3-15). None of the demographic or clinical factors examined showed significant association with anxiety and BIS with the exception of ‘time since diagnosis’. For depression, post-menopausal status was the only independent predictor. Among those 23 patients treated by FSS, 14 patients tried to conceive (7 successful), resulting in 7 live births, one termination of pregnancy and one miscarriage.----- Conclusion: This study shows that psychological issues are common in women treated for stage I EOC. Reproduction after FSS is feasible and lead to the birth of healthy babies in about half of patients who wished to have another child. Further prospective studies with standardised instruments are required.

Glycaemic index and glycaemic load intake patterns in older Australian women

Aims: Dietary glycemic index (GI) and glycemic load (GL) have been associated with risk of chronic diseases, yet limited research exists on patterns of consumption in Australia. Our aims were to investigate glycemic carbohydrate in a population of older women, identify major contributing food sources, and determine low, moderate and high ranges. Methods: Subjects were 459 Brisbane women aged 42-81 years participating in the Longitudinal Assessment of Ageing in Women. Diet history interviews were used to assess usual diet and results were analysed into energy and macronutrients using the FoodWorks dietary analysis program combined with a customised GI database. Results: Mean±SD dietary GI was 55.6±4.4% and mean dietary GL was 115±25. A low GI in this population was ≤52.0, corresponding to the lowest quintile of dietary GI, and a low GL was ≤95. GI showed a quadratic relationship with age (P=0.01), with a slight decrease observed in women aged in their 60’s relative to younger or older women. GL decreased linearly with age (P<0.001). Bread was the main contributor to carbohydrate and dietary GL (17.1% and 20.8%, respectively), followed by fruit (15.5% and 14.2%), and dairy for carbohydrate (9.0%) or breakfast cereals for GL (8.9%). Conclusions: In this population, dietary GL decreased with increasing age, however this was likely to be a result of higher energy intakes in younger women. Focus on careful selection of lower GI items within bread and breakfast cereal food groups would be an effective strategy for decreasing dietary GL in this population of older women.

The malnutrition screening tool is a useful tool for identifying malnutrition risk in residential aged care

Background: The Malnutrition Screening Tool (MST) is a valid nutrition screening tool in the acute hospital setting but has not been assessed in residential aged care facilities. The aim of this secondary analysis was to determine whether the MST could be a useful nutrition screening tool when compared with a full nutrition assessment by Subjective Global Assessment (SGA) in the residential aged care setting. ----- Methods: Two hundred and eighty-five residents (29% male; mean age: 84 ± 9 years) from eight residential aged care facilities in Australia participated. A secondary analysis of data collected during a nutrition intervention study was conducted. The MST consists of two questions related to recent weight loss and appetite. While the MST was not specifically applied, weight loss and appetite information was available and an estimated MST score (0-5) calculated. Nutritional status was assessed by a research assistant trained in using SGA. ----- Results: Malnutrition prevalence was 42.8% (122 malnourished out of 285 residents). Compared to the SGA, the MST was an effective predictor of nutritional risk (sensitivity = 83.6%, specificity = 65.6%, positive predictive value = 0.65, negative predictive value =0.84). ----- Conclusions: The components of the MST have acceptable sensitivity and specificity suggesting it can play a valuable role in quickly identifying malnutrition risk in the residential aged care setting. Further prospective research using the MST tool against a broader array of objective and subjective nutritional parameters is required to confirm its validity as a screening tool in aged care settings.

Optimal monitoring in family-owned companies? Evidence from Asia

Manuscript Type: Empirical Research Issue: We propose that high levels of monitoring are not always in the best interests of minority shareholders. In family-owned companies the optimal level of board monitoring required by minority shareholders is expected to be lower than that of other companies. This is because the relative benefits and costs of monitoring are different in family-owned companies. Research Findings: At moderate levels of board monitoring, we find concave relationships between board monitoring variables and firm performance for family-owned companies but not for other companies. The optimal level of board monitoring for our sample of Asian family-owned companies equates to board independence of 38%, separation of the Chairman and CEO positions and establishment of audit and remuneration committees. Additional testing shows that the optimal level of board monitoring is sensitive to the magnitude of the agency conflict between the family group and minority shareholders and the presence of substitute monitoring. Practitioner/Policy Implications: For policymakers, the results show that more monitoring is not always in the best interests of minority shareholders. Therefore, it may be inappropriate for regulators to advise all companies to follow the same set of corporate governance guidelines. However, our results also indicate that the board governance practices of family-owned companies are still well below the identified optimal levels. Keywords: Corporate Governance, Board Independence, Board of Directors, Family Firms, Monitoring.

Natural enemies of Paropsis atomaria Olivier (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) in south-eastern Queensland eucalypt plantations

Abstract A field survey for natural enemies of Paropsis atomaria was conducted at two south-eastern Queensland Eucalyptus cloeziana plantation sites during 2004–2005. Primary egg and larval parasitoids and associated hyperparasitoids were identified to genus or species, and parasitism rates were determined throughout the season. Predators were identified to family level but their impact was not quantified. P. atomaria adults were also examined as potential hosts for parasitic mites and nematodes. An undescribed species of Neopolycystus (Pteromalidae) was the major primary egg parasitoid species reared from egg batches, parasitising half of all egg batches collected. Three hyperparasitoid species (Baeoanusia albifunicle (Encyrtidae), Neblatticida sp. (Encyrtidae) and Aphaneromella sp. (Platygasteridae) were present, representing around one-quarter to one-third of all emergent wasps; this is the first host association record for Neopolycystus–B. albifunicle. In contrast to populations of P. atomaria from the Australian Capital Territory, primary larval parasitism was very low, around 1%, and attributable only to the tachinid flies Anagonia sp. and Paropsivora sp. However, the presence of the sit-and-wait larval hyperparasitoid, Perilampus sp. (Perilampidae) was high, emerging from around 17% of tachinid pupae, with planidia infesting a further 40% of unparasitised hosts. Three species of podapolipid mites parasitised sexually mature P. atomaria adults, while no nematodes were found in this study. Spiders were the most common predators and their abundance was positively correlated with P. atomaria adult and egg numbers. Although natural enemy species composition was identical between our two study sites, significant differences in abundance and frequency were found between sites