The Sustainable Debts of Philip II: A Reconstruction of Spain's Fiscal Position, 1560-1598

The defaults of Philip II have attained mythical status as the origin of sovereign debt crises. Four times during his reign the king failed to honor his debts and had to renegotiate borrowing contracts. In this paper, we reassess the fiscal position of Habsburg Spain. New archival evidence allows us to derive comprehensive estimates of debt and revenue. These show that primary surpluses were sufficient to make the king's debt sustainable in most scenarios. Spain's debt burden was manageable up to the 1580s, and its fiscal position only deteriorated for good after the defeat of the "Invincible Armada." We also estimate fiscal policy reaction functions, and show that Spain under the Habsburgs was at least as "responsible" as the US in the 20th century or as Britain in the 18th century. Our results suggest that the outcome of uncertain events such as wars may influence on a history of default more than strict adherence to fiscal rules.

Comparison between standard radiography and spiral CT with 3D reconstruction in the evaluation, classification and management of tibial plateau fractures.

The aim of this study was to compare the diagnostic efficiency of plain film and spiral CT examinations with 3D reconstructions of 42 tibial plateau fractures and to assess the accuracy of these two techniques in the pre-operative surgical plan in 22 cases. Forty-two tibial plateau fractures were examined with plain film (anteroposterior, lateral, two obliques) and spiral CT with surface-shaded-display 3D reconstructions. The Swiss AO-ASIF classification system of bone fracture from Muller was used. In 22 cases the surgical plans and the sequence of reconstruction of the fragments were prospectively determined with both techniques, successively, and then correlated with the surgical reports and post-operative plain film. The fractures were underestimated with plain film in 18 of 42 cases (43%). Due to the spiral CT 3D reconstructions, and precise pre-operative information, the surgical plans based on plain film were modified and adjusted in 13 cases among 22 (59%). Spiral CT 3D reconstructions give a better and more accurate demonstration of the tibial plateau fracture and allows a more precise pre-operative surgical plan.

Effects of phylogenetic signal on ancestral state reconstruction.

One of the standard tools used to understand the processes shaping trait evolution along the branches of a phylogenetic tree is the reconstruction of ancestral states (Pagel 1999). The purpose is to estimate the values of the trait of interest for every internal node of a phylogenetic tree based on the trait values of the extant species, a topology and, depending on the method used, branch lengths and a model of trait evolution (Ronquist 2004). This approach has been used in a variety of contexts such as biogeography (e.g., Nepokroeff et al. 2003, Blackburn 2008), ecological niche evolution (e.g., Smith and Beaulieu 2009, Evans et al. 2009) and metabolic pathway evolution (e.g., Gabaldón 2003, Christin et al. 2008). Investigations of the factors affecting the accuracy with which ancestral character states can be reconstructed have focused in particular on the choice of statistical framework (Ekman et al. 2008) and the selection of the best model of evolution (Cunningham et al. 1998, Mooers et al. 1999). However, other potential biases affecting these methods, such as the effect of tree shape (Mooers 2004), taxon sampling (Salisbury and Kim 2001) as well as reconstructing traits involved in species diversification (Goldberg and Igić 2008), have also received specific attention. Most of these studies conclude that ancestral character states reconstruction is still not perfect, and that further developments are necessary to improve its accuracy (e.g., Christin et al. 2010). Here, we examine how different estimations of branch lengths affect the accuracy of ancestral character state reconstruction. In particular, we tested the effect of using time-calibrated versus molecular branch lengths and provide guidelines to select the most appropriate branch lengths to reconstruct the ancestral state of a trait.

Paediatric cardiac CT examinations: impact of the iterative reconstruction method ASIR on image quality--preliminary findings.

BACKGROUND: Radiation dose exposure is of particular concern in children due to the possible harmful effects of ionizing radiation. The adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction (ASIR) method is a promising new technique that reduces image noise and produces better overall image quality compared with routine-dose contrast-enhanced methods. OBJECTIVE: To assess the benefits of ASIR on the diagnostic image quality in paediatric cardiac CT examinations. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Four paediatric radiologists based at two major hospitals evaluated ten low-dose paediatric cardiac examinations (80 kVp, CTDI(vol) 4.8-7.9 mGy, DLP 37.1-178.9 mGy·cm). The average age of the cohort studied was 2.6 years (range 1 day to 7 years). Acquisitions were performed on a 64-MDCT scanner. All images were reconstructed at various ASIR percentages (0-100%). For each examination, radiologists scored 19 anatomical structures using the relative visual grading analysis method. To estimate the potential for dose reduction, acquisitions were also performed on a Catphan phantom and a paediatric phantom. RESULTS: The best image quality for all clinical images was obtained with 20% and 40% ASIR (p < 0.001) whereas with ASIR above 50%, image quality significantly decreased (p < 0.001). With 100% ASIR, a strong noise-free appearance of the structures reduced image conspicuity. A potential for dose reduction of about 36% is predicted for a 2- to 3-year-old child when using 40% ASIR rather than the standard filtered back-projection method. CONCLUSION: Reconstruction including 20% to 40% ASIR slightly improved the conspicuity of various paediatric cardiac structures in newborns and children with respect to conventional reconstruction (filtered back-projection) alone.

Seasonality and Temperature:Turtles in Hot Water?

Variation in temperature affects the biology of sea turtles at a range of scales. To elucidate the drivers of seasonality of nesting and duration of season, databases across four species of sea turtles (Caretta caretta n=37, Chelonia mydas n=64, Dermochelys coriacea n=44 and Eretmochelys imbricata n=36) at a global scale were created. By using remotely sensed sea surface temperature data, thermal profiles across the nesting season were generated. Duration of nesting season was correlated with latitude in all species but was more tightly coupled with temperature; seasons were significantly longer with increased mean SST. In general, nesting seasonality occurred at warmest time of the year. SST for the month before, month after and the month of peak nesting significantly affected the month of peak nesting.

Variation of the Chlorophyll a Related to Sea Surface Temperature, Wind and Geostrophic Currents in the Cape Verde Region Using Satellite Data

We present a comparative analysis of satellite derived climatologies in the Cape Verde region (CV). In order to establish chlorophyll a variability, in relation to other oceanographic phenomena, a set of, relatively long (from five to eight years), time series of chlorophyll a, sea surface temperature, wind and geostrophic currents, were ensembled for the Eastern Central Atlantic (ECA). We studied seasonal and inter-annual variability of phytoplankton concentration, in relation to the rest of the variables, with a special focus in CV. We compared the situation within the archipelago with those of the surrounding marine environments, such as the North West African Upwelling (NWAU), North Atlantic Subtropical Gyre (NASTG), North Equatorial Counter Current (NECC) and Guinea Dome (GD). At the seasonal scale, CV region behaves partly as the surrounding areas, nevertheless, some autochthonous features were also found. The maximum peak of the pigment having a positive correlation with temperature is found at the end of the year for all the points in the archipelago; a less remarkable rise with negative correlation is also detected in February for points CV2 and CV4. This is behavior that none of the surrounding environments have shown. This enrichment was found to be preceded by a drastic drop in wind intensity (SW Monsoon) during summer months. The inter-annual analysis shows a tendency for decreasing of the chlorophyll a concentration.

Variation of the Chlorophyll a Related to Sea Surface Temperature, Wind and Geostrophic Currents in the Cape Verde Region Using Satellite Data

We present a comparative analysis of satellite derived climatologies in the Cape Verde region (CV). In order to establish chlorophyll a variability, in relation to other oceanographic phenomena, a set of, relatively long (from five to eight years), time series of chlorophyll a, sea surface temperature, wind and geostrophic currents, were ensembled for the Eastern Central Atlantic (ECA). We studied seasonal and inter-annual variability of phytoplankton concentration, in relation to the rest of the variables, with a special focus in CV. We compared the situation within the archipelago with those of the surrounding marine environments, such as the North West African Upwelling (NWAU), North Atlantic Subtropical Gyre (NASTG), North Equatorial Counter Current (NECC) and Guinea Dome (GD). At the seasonal scale, CV region behaves partly as the surrounding areas, nevertheless, some autochthonous features were also found. The maximum peak of the pigment having a positive correlation with temperature is found at the end of the year for all the points in the archipelago; a less remarkable rise with negative correlation is also detected in February for points CV2 and CV4. This is behavior that none of the surrounding environments have shown. This enrichment was found to be preceded by a drastic drop in wind intensity (SW Monsoon) during summer months. The inter-annual analysis shows a tendency for decreasing of the chlorophyll a concentration.

Influence of reconstruction parameters during filtered backprojection and ordered-subset expectation maximization in the measurement of the left-ventricular volumes and function during gated SPECT.

A crucial method for investigating patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) is the calculation of the left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). It is, consequently, imperative to precisely estimate the value of LVEF--a process that can be done with myocardial perfusion scintigraphy. Therefore, the present study aimed to establish and compare the estimation performance of the quantitative parameters of the reconstruction methods filtered backprojection (FBP) and ordered-subset expectation maximization (OSEM). METHODS: A beating-heart phantom with known values of end-diastolic volume, end-systolic volume, and LVEF was used. Quantitative gated SPECT/quantitative perfusion SPECT software was used to obtain these quantitative parameters in a semiautomatic mode. The Butterworth filter was used in FBP, with the cutoff frequencies between 0.2 and 0.8 cycles per pixel combined with the orders of 5, 10, 15, and 20. Sixty-three reconstructions were performed using 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, and 16 OSEM subsets, combined with several iterations: 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, 16, 32, and 64. RESULTS: With FBP, the values of end-diastolic, end-systolic, and the stroke volumes rise as the cutoff frequency increases, whereas the value of LVEF diminishes. This same pattern is verified with the OSEM reconstruction. However, with OSEM there is a more precise estimation of the quantitative parameters, especially with the combinations 2 iterations × 10 subsets and 2 iterations × 12 subsets. CONCLUSION: The OSEM reconstruction presents better estimations of the quantitative parameters than does FBP. This study recommends the use of 2 iterations with 10 or 12 subsets for OSEM and a cutoff frequency of 0.5 cycles per pixel with the orders 5, 10, or 15 for FBP as the best estimations for the left ventricular volumes and ejection fraction quantification in myocardial perfusion scintigraphy.