Using high-frequency water quality data to assess sampling strategies for the EU Water Framework Directive

The EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) requires that the ecological and chemical status of water bodies in Europe should be assessed, and action taken where possible to ensure that at least "good" quality is attained in each case by 2015. This paper is concerned with the accuracy and precision with which chemical status in rivers can be measured given certain sampling strategies, and how this can be improved. High-frequency (hourly) chemical data from four rivers in southern England were subsampled to simulate different sampling strategies for four parameters used for WFD classification: dissolved phosphorus, dissolved oxygen, pH and water temperature. These data sub-sets were then used to calculate the WFD classification for each site. Monthly sampling was less precise than weekly sampling, but the effect on WFD classification depended on the closeness of the range of concentrations to the class boundaries. In some cases, monthly sampling for a year could result in the same water body being assigned to three or four of the WFD classes with 95% confidence, due to random sampling effects, whereas with weekly sampling this was one or two classes for the same cases. In the most extreme case, the same water body could have been assigned to any of the five WFD quality classes. Weekly sampling considerably reduces the uncertainties compared to monthly sampling. The width of the weekly sampled confidence intervals was about 33% that of the monthly for P species and pH, about 50% for dissolved oxygen, and about 67% for water temperature. For water temperature, which is assessed as the 98th percentile in the UK, monthly sampling biases the mean downwards by about 1 °C compared to the true value, due to problems of assessing high percentiles with limited data. Low-frequency measurements will generally be unsuitable for assessing standards expressed as high percentiles. Confining sampling to the working week compared to all 7 days made little difference, but a modest improvement in precision could be obtained by sampling at the same time of day within a 3 h time window, and this is recommended. For parameters with a strong diel variation, such as dissolved oxygen, the value obtained, and thus possibly the WFD classification, can depend markedly on when in the cycle the sample was taken. Specifying this in the sampling regime would be a straightforward way to improve precision, but there needs to be agreement about how best to characterise risk in different types of river. These results suggest that in some cases it will be difficult to assign accurate WFD chemical classes or to detect likely trends using current sampling regimes, even for these largely groundwater-fed rivers. A more critical approach to sampling is needed to ensure that management actions are appropriate and supported by data.

Low-frequency volatility of real estate securities in relation to macroeconomic risk

Real estate securities have a number of distinct characteristics that differentiate them from stocks generally. Key amongst them is that under-pinning the firms are both real as well as investment assets. The connections between the underlying macro-economy and listed real estate firms is therefore clearly demonstrated and of heightened importance. To consider the linkages with the underlying macro-economic fundamentals we extract the ‘low-frequency’ volatility component from aggregate volatility shocks in 11 international markets over the 1990-2014 period. This is achieved using Engle and Rangel’s (2008) Spline-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (Spline-GARCH) model. The estimated low-frequency volatility is then examined together with low-frequency macro data in a fixed-effect pooled regression framework. The analysis reveals that the low-frequency volatility of real estate securities has strong and positive association with most of the macroeconomic risk proxies examined. These include interest rates, inflation, GDP and foreign exchange rates.

Confessionalism and conversion in the Reformation

Recent research on the Reformation has been concerned with the process by which lay people acquired a religious identity, whether it began merely as an act of political obedience or by a sudden ‘conversion’ to new doctrines. Confessional politics made it imperative for rulers to try to control the religious allegiances of their people, but the doctrine of conversion (as a spiritual change) made this theoretically impossible. Instead, a ‘culture of persuasion’ developed by which clerical and secular rulers sought to persuade their people to accept teachings authorized by the state. The possibility of religious dissent, of converting away from the state-sanctioned denomination, made conversion an issue whose importance was far greater than the actual number of converts. The study of confessionalism and conversion emphasises two theses fundamental to Reformation studies: that the era produced radical changes in the ways that people thought about their personal and communal identities, and that it made individuals’ religious choices the urgent concern of their governors.

Frequency of infant stroking reported by mothers moderates the effect of prenatal depression on infant behavioural and physiological outcomes

Animal studies find that prenatal stress is associated with increased physiological and emotional reactivity later in life, mediated via fetal programming of the HPA axis through decreased glucocorticoid receptor (GR) gene expression. Post-natal behaviours, notably licking and grooming in rats, cause decreased behavioural indices of fear and reduced HPA axis reactivity mediated via increased GR gene expression. Post-natal maternal behaviours may therefore be expected to modify prenatal effects, but this has not previously been examined in humans. We examined whether, according to self-report, maternal stroking over the first weeks of life modified associations between prenatal depression and physiological and behavioral outcomes in infancy, hence mimicking effects of rodent licking and grooming. From a general population sample of 1233 first time mothers recruited at 20 weeks gestation we drew a stratified random sample of 316 for assessment at 32 weeks based on reported inter-partner psychological abuse, a risk to child development. Of these 271 provided data at 5, 9 and 29 weeks post delivery. Mothers reported how often they stroked their babies at 5 and 9 weeks. At 29 weeks vagal withdrawal to a stressor, a measure of physiological adaptability, and maternal reported negative emotionality were assessed. There was a significant interaction between prenatal depression and maternal stroking in the prediction of vagal reactivity to a stressor (p = .01), and maternal reports of infant anger proneness (p = .007) and fear (p = .043). Increasing maternal depression was associated with decreasing physiological adaptability, and with increasing negative emotionality, only in the presence of low maternal stroking. These initial findings in humans indicate that maternal stroking in infancy, as reported by mothers, has effects strongly resembling the effects of observed maternal behaviours in animals, pointing to future studies of the epigenetic, physiological and behavioral effects of maternal stroking.

Using eye movements to investigate word frequency effects in children’s sentence reading

While eye movements have been used widely to investigate how skilled adult readers process written language, relatively little research has used this methodology with children. This is unfortunate as, as we discuss here, eye-movement studies have significant potential to inform our understanding of children’s reading development. We consider some of the empirical and theoretical issues that arise when using this methodology with children, illustrating our points with data from an experiment examining word frequency effects in 8-year-old children’s sentence reading. Children showed significantly longer gaze durations to low than high-frequency words, demonstrating that linguistic characteristics of text drive children’s eye movements as they read. We discuss these findings within the broader context of how eye-movement studies can inform our understanding of children’s reading, and can assist with the development of appropriately targeted interventions to support children as they learn to read.

Conversion in late antiquity: Christianity, Islam, and beyond

The papers in this volume were presented at a Mellon-Sawyer Seminar held at the University of Oxford in 2009-2010, which sought to investigate side by side the two important movements of conversion that frame late antiquity: to Christianity at its start, and to Islam at the other end. Challenging the opposition between the two stereotypes of Islamic conversion as an intrinsically violent process, and Christian conversion as a fundamentally spiritual one, the papers seek to isolate the behaviours and circumstances that made conversion both such a common and such a contested phenomenon. The spread of Buddhism in Asia in broadly the same period serves as an external comparator that was not caught in the net of the Abrahamic religions. The volume is organised around several themes, reflecting the concerns of the initial project with the articulation between norm and practice, the role of authorities and institutions, and the social and individual fluidity on the ground. Debates, discussions, and the expression of norms and principles about conversion conversion are not rare in societies experiencing religious change, and the first section of the book examines some of the main issues brought up by surviving sources. This is followed by three sections examining different aspects of how those principles were - or were not - put into practice: how conversion was handled by the state, how it was continuously redefined by individual ambivalence and cultural fluidity, and how it was enshrined through different forms of institutionalization. Finally, a topographical coda examines the effects of religious change on the iconic holy city of Jerusalem.

The role of copper in the thermal conductivity of thermoelectric oxychalcogenides: do lone pairs matter?

Understanding the underlying mechanisms that suppress thermal conduction in solids is of paramount importance for the targeted design of materials for thermal management and thermoelectric energy conversion applications. Bismuth copper oxychalcogenides, BiOCuQ (Q = Se, Te), are highly crystalline thermoelectric materials with an unusually low lattice thermal conductivity of approx. 0.5 Wm-1K-1, a value normally found in amorphous materials. Here we unveil the origin of the unusual thermal transport properties of these phases. First principles calculations of the vibrational properties combined with analysis of in-situ neutron diffraction data, demonstrate that weak bonding of copper atoms within the structure leads to an unexpected vibrational mode at low frequencies, which is likely to be a major contributor to the low thermal conductivity of these materials. In addition, we show that anharmonicity and the large Grüneisen parameter in these oxychalcogenides are mainly related to the low frequency copper vibrations, rather than to the Bi3+ lone pairs.

Rethinking the Conversion of Scotland in the fifth and sixth centuries

Reconsidering the initial Christian Conversion of Scotland in the fifth and sixth centuries AD, using archaeological and historical evidence, it is argued that this was carried out by missionaries from what had been Roman Britain. It is shown that this missionary activity - and similar British missions in Ireland - represents the first instance of Western missionary work beyond the former Roman imperial frontiers. The location of the northern frontier of Roman Britain in the fourth century, and the meaning of Pictish Class 1 symbol stones, are discussed as part of the broader argument.

Optimised frequency grids for infrared radiative transfer simulations in cloudy conditions

This paper shows that radiometer channel radiances for cloudy atmospheric conditions can be simulated with an optimised frequency grid derived under clear-sky conditions. A new clear-sky optimised grid is derived for AVHRR channel 5 ð12 m m, 833 cm �1 Þ. For HIRS channel 11 ð7:33 m m, 1364 cm �1 Þ and AVHRR channel 5, radiative transfer simulations using an optimised frequency grid are compared with simulations using a reference grid, where the optimised grid has roughly 100–1000 times less frequencies than the full grid. The root mean square error between the optimised and the reference simulation is found to be less than 0.3 K for both comparisons, with the magnitude of the bias less than 0.03 K. The simulations have been carried out with the radiative transfer model Atmospheric Radiative Transfer Simulator (ARTS), version 2, using a backward Monte Carlo module for the treatment of clouds. With this module, the optimised simulations are more than 10 times faster than the reference simulations. Although the number of photons is the same, the smaller number of frequencies reduces the overhead for preparing the optical properties for each frequency. With deterministic scattering solvers, the relative decrease in runtime would be even more. The results allow for new radiative transfer applications, such as the development of new retrievals, because it becomes much quicker to carry out a large number of simulations. The conclusions are applicable to any downlooking infrared radiometer.

Increased frequency of extreme La Niña events under greenhouse warming

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation is Earth’s most prominent source of interannual climate variability, alternating irregularly between El Niño and La Niña, and resulting in global disruption of weather patterns, ecosystems, fisheries and agriculture1, 2, 3, 4, 5. The 1998–1999 extreme La Niña event that followed the 1997–1998 extreme El Niño event6 switched extreme El Niño-induced severe droughts to devastating floods in western Pacific countries, and vice versa in the southwestern United States4, 7. During extreme La Niña events, cold sea surface conditions develop in the central Pacific8, 9, creating an enhanced temperature gradient from the Maritime continent to the central Pacific. Recent studies have revealed robust changes in El Niño characteristics in response to simulated future greenhouse warming10, 11, 12, but how La Niña will change remains unclear. Here we present climate modelling evidence, from simulations conducted for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (ref. 13), for a near doubling in the frequency of future extreme La Niña events, from one in every 23 years to one in every 13 years. This occurs because projected faster mean warming of the Maritime continent than the central Pacific, enhanced upper ocean vertical temperature gradients, and increased frequency of extreme El Niño events are conducive to development of the extreme La Niña events. Approximately 75% of the increase occurs in years following extreme El Niño events, thus projecting more frequent swings between opposite extremes from one year to the next.