SAMPLING BIAS IN EVALUATING THE PROBABILITY OF SEISMICALLY INDUCED SOIL LIQUEFACTION WITH SPT & CPT CASE HISTORIES

Several deterministic and probabilistic methods are used to evaluate the probability of seismically induced liquefaction of a soil. The probabilistic models usually possess some uncertainty in that model and uncertainties in the parameters used to develop that model. These model uncertainties vary from one statistical model to another. Most of the model uncertainties are epistemic, and can be addressed through appropriate knowledge of the statistical model. One such epistemic model uncertainty in evaluating liquefaction potential using a probabilistic model such as logistic regression is sampling bias. Sampling bias is the difference between the class distribution in the sample used for developing the statistical model and the true population distribution of liquefaction and non-liquefaction instances. Recent studies have shown that sampling bias can significantly affect the predicted probability using a statistical model. To address this epistemic uncertainty, a new approach was developed for evaluating the probability of seismically-induced soil liquefaction, in which a logistic regression model in combination with Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic was used. This approach was used to estimate the population (true) distribution of liquefaction to non-liquefaction instances of standard penetration test (SPT) and cone penetration test (CPT) based most updated case histories. Apart from this, other model uncertainties such as distribution of explanatory variables and significance of explanatory variables were also addressed using KS test and Wald statistic respectively. Moreover, based on estimated population distribution, logistic regression equations were proposed to calculate the probability of liquefaction for both SPT and CPT based case history. Additionally, the proposed probability curves were compared with existing probability curves based on SPT and CPT case histories.

Antimicrobial resistance in indicator Escherichia coli isolates from free-ranging livestock and sympatric wild ungulates in a natural environment (Northeastern Spain)

Antimicrobial resistance was assessed in indicator Escherichia coli isolates from free-ranging livestock and sympatric wild boar (Sus scrofa) and Iberian ibex (Capra pyrenaica) in a National Game Reserve in northeastern Spain. The frequency of antimicrobial resistance was low (0% to 7.9%). However, resistance to an extended-spectrum cephalosporin and fluoroquinolones was detected.

Perceived Accessibility of Public Transport as a Potential Indicator of Social Inclusion

Perceived accessibility has been acknowledged as an important aspect of transport policy since the 70s. Nevertheless, very few empirical studies have been conducted in this field. When aiming to improve social inclusion, by making sus-tainable transport modes accessible to all, it is important to understand the factors driving perceived accessibility. Un-like conventional accessibility measures, perceived accessibility focuses on the perceived possibilities and ease of en-gaging in preferred activities using different transport modes. We define perceived accessibility in terms of how easy it is to live a satisfactory life with the help of the transport system, which is not necessarily the same thing as the objec-tive standard of the system. According to previous research, perceived accessibility varies with the subjectively-rated quality of the mode of transport. Thus, improvements in quality (e.g. trip planning, comfort, or safety) increase the per-ceived accessibility and make life easier to live using the chosen mode of transport. This study (n=750) focuses on the perceived accessibility of public transport, captured using the Perceived Accessibility Scale PAC (Lättman, Olsson, & Fri-man, 2015). More specifically, this study aims to determine how level of quality affects the perceived accessibility in public transport. A Conditional Process Model shows that, in addition to quality, feeling safe and frequency of travel are important predictors of perceived accessibility. Furthermore, elderly and those in their thirties report a lower level of perceived accessibility to their day-to-day activities using public transport. The basic premise of this study is that sub-jective experiences may be as important as objective indicators when planning and designing for socially inclusive transport systems.

Development of hyaline spheres in late auriculariae of sandfish, Holothuria scabra : is it a reliable indicator of subsequent performance?

This study assessed the influence of diet composition on hyaline sphere (HS) development in auricularia larvae of the sandfish, Holothuria scabra, and the subsequent relationships between the presence and size of hyaline spheres and competency through settlement and early juvenile performance. Two-day old larvae were fed one of three commercially available micro-algae diets that varied in their nutrient compositions: (1) Isochrysis sp. (Haptophyceae); (2) Pavlova sp. (Haptophyceae); and (3) Thalassiosira weissflogii (Bacillariophyceae) or a ternary combination of the three. There were positive significant correlations between HS development in late auriculariae on days 10, 11, 12 and 13 post-fertilisation, and the proportion of competent doliolariae on day 15, post-settlement size (day 21) and post-settlement survival (day 25). The dietary components that most strongly influenced these relationships were carbohydrates and the n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids arachidonic acid (ARA), eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA). Our result confirm the strong relationship between HS formation in late auriculariae of sandfish and subsequent larval competency through settlement. As such, the presence and size of HS is a reliable indicator of subsequent performance for sandfish. Given that HS development was influenced by the nutrients available to sandfish auriculariae, there is clear opportunity for development of more appropriate diets for hatchery culture of this species that will improve HS formation and larval performance supporting improved hatchery production. Statement of relevance Our results have confirmed that for sandfish larvae, the presence and size of HS at the end of the auricularia stage, is indeed a reliable indicator of subsequent performance. Our results have also confirmed that HS formation and size is significantly influenced by the nutrient composition of the auricularia diet, and that there are significant positive correlations between HS formation and dietary levels of carbohydrate, EPA:DHA and EPA:ARA ratios. This information provides a strong basis for development of more appropriate diets for sandfish larvae that will improve HS formation and larval performance during hatchery culture and in turn improve hatchery production of this species.

Analysis of size spectra off northwest Africa: a useful indicator in tropical areas?

Changes in the size spectra of demersal fish communities off Cape Verde (1988, 1994), Guinea (1985-1995), and Mauritania (1987-2001) were studied. Intercepts and slopes showed opposite trends for Guinea and Mauritania, but were relatively stable in spite of a strong increase in landings per unit area. For Cape Verde, there were marked changes in size structure, seemingly inconsistent with the more moderate fishing pressure there. Changes in size structure do not seem to be suitable indicators of the effects of fishing in areas characterized by faster growth rates, small sizes, high species diversity, and complex interrelationships, such as the tropics. (c) 2005 International Council for the Exploration of the Sea. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Occurrence and abundance models of threatened plant species: Applications to mitigate the impact of hydroelectric power dams

Species occurrence and abundance models are important tools that can be used in biodiversity conservation, and can be applied to predict or plan actions needed to mitigate the environmental impacts of hydropower dams. In this study our objectives were: (i) to model the occurrence and abundance of threatened plant species, (ii) to verify the relationship between predicted occurrence and true abundance, and (iii) to assess whether models based on abundance are more effective in predicting species occurrence than those based on presence–absence data. Individual representatives of nine species were counted within 388 randomly georeferenced plots (10 m × 50 m) around the Barra Grande hydropower dam reservoir in southern Brazil. We modelled their relationship with 15 environmental variables using both occurrence (Generalised Linear Models) and abundance data (Hurdle and Zero-Inflated models). Overall, occurrence models were more accurate than abundance models. For all species, observed abundance was significantly, although not strongly, correlated with the probability of occurrence. This correlation lost significance when zero-abundance (absence) sites were excluded from analysis, but only when this entailed a substantial drop in sample size. The same occurred when analysing relationships between abundance and probability of occurrence from previously published studies on a range of different species, suggesting that future studies could potentially use probability of occurrence as an approximate indicator of abundance when the latter is not possible to obtain. This possibility might, however, depend on life history traits of the species in question, with some traits favouring a relationship between occurrence and abundance. Reconstructing species abundance patterns from occurrence could be an important tool for conservation planning and the management of threatened species, allowing scientists to indicate the best areas for collection and reintroduction of plant germplasm or choose conservation areas most likely to maintain viable populations.

Is the human population a large-scale indicator of the species richness of ground beetles?

Aim Positive regional correlations between biodiversity and human population have been detected for several taxonomic groups and geographical regions. Such correlations could have important conservation implications and have been mainly attributed to ecological factors, with little testing for an artefactual explanation: more populated regions may show higher biodiversity because they are more thoroughly surveyed. We tested the hypothesis that the correlation between people and herptile diversity in Europe is influenced by survey effort

Assessing the ability of rural agrarian areas to provide cultural ecosystem services (CES): A multi scale social indicator framework (MSIF)

Assessing the ways in which rural agrarian areas provide Cultural Ecosystem Services (CES) is proving difficult to achieve. This research has developed an innovative methodological approach named as Multi Scale Indicator Framework (MSIF) for capturing the CES embedded into the rural agrarian areas. This framework reconciles a literature review with a transdisciplinary participatory workshop. Both of these sources reveal that societal preferences diverge upon judgemental criteria which in turn relate to different visual concepts that can be drawn from analyzing attributes, elements, features and characteristics of rural areas. We contend that it is now possible to list a group of possible multi scale indicators for stewardship, diversity and aesthetics. These results might also be of use for improving any existing European indicators frameworks by also including CES. This research carries major implications for policy at different levels of governance, as it makes possible to target and monitor policy instruments to the physical rural settings so that cultural dimensions are adequately considered. There is still work to be developed on regional specific values and thresholds for each criteria and its indicator set. In practical terms, by developing the conceptual design within a common framework as described in this paper, a considerable step forward toward the inclusion of the cultural dimension in European wide assessments can be made

Relevant Aspects on Teaching Probability and Statistics in Basic General Education

Probability and Statistics were included in the Basic General Education curricula by the Ministry of Public Education (Costa Rica), since 1995. To analyze the teaching reality in these fields, a research was conducted in two educational regions of the country: Heredia and Pérez Zeledón. The survey included university training and updating processes of teachers teaching Statistics and Probability in the schools. The research demonstrated the limited university training in these fields, the dissatisfaction of teachers about it, and the poor support of training institutions to their professional exercise.