Predictive empirical modelling of Orobanche life cycle and seed ecology

Abstract 1.7.4

Modelling simultaneously water content and dry matter dynamics of wheat grains

A model was devised to describe simultaneously the grain masses of water and dry matter against thermal time during grain filling and maturation of winter wheat. The model accounted for a linear increase in water mass of duration anthesis-m(1) (end of rapid water assimilation phase) and rate a, followed by a more stable water mass until in,, after which water mass declined rapidly at rate e. Grain dry matter was described as a linear increase of rate bgf until a maximum size (maxgf) was attained at m(2).The model was fitted to plot data from weekly samples of grains taken from replicated field experiments investigating effects of grain position (apical or medial), fungicide (five contrasting treatments), sowing date (early or late), cultivar (Malacca or Shamrock) and season (2001/2002 and 2002/2003) on grain filling. The model accounted for between 83 and 99% of the variation ( 2) when fitted to data from individual plots, and between 97 and 99% when fitted to treatment means. Endosperm cell number of grains from early-sown plots in the first season were also counted. Differences in maxgf between grain positions and also between cultivars were mostly the result of effects on bgf and were empirically associated with water mass at nil. Fungicide application controlled S. tritici and powdery mildew infection, delayed flag leaf senescence, increased water mass at m(1) (wm(1)), and also increased m(2), bgf and maxgf. Fungicide effects on water mass were detected before fungicide effects on dry matter, but comparison of the effects of individual fungicide treatments showed no evidence that effects on wm(1), nor on endosperm cell numbers at about m(1), were required for fungicide effects on maxgf, (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modelling the partitioning of evapotranspiration in a maize-sunflower intercrop

The primary purpose of this study was to model the partitioning of evapotranspiration in a maize-sunflower intercrop at various canopy covers. The Shuttleworth-Wallace (SW) model was extended for intercropping systems to include both crop transpiration and soil evaporation and allowing interaction between the two. To test the accuracy of the extended SW model, two field experiments of maize-sunflower intercrop were conducted in 1998 and 1999. Plant transpiration and soil evaporation were measured using sap flow gauges and lysimeters, respectively. The mean prediction error (simulated minus measured values) for transpiration was zero (which indicated no overall bias in estimation error), and its accuracy was not affected by the plant growth stages, but simulated transpiration during high measured transpiration rates tended to be slightly underestimated. Overall, the predictions for daily soil evaporation were also accurate. Model estimation errors were probably due to the simplified modelling of soil water content, stomatal resistances and soil heat flux as well as due to the uncertainties in characterising the 2 micrometeorological conditions. The SW’s prediction of transpiration was most sensitive to parameters most directly related to the canopy characteristics such as the partitioning of captured solar radiation, canopy resistance, and bulk boundary layer resistance.

An illustration of the modelling of cost and efficacy data from a clinical trial

Health care providers, purchasers and policy makers need to make informed decisions regarding the provision of cost-effective care. When a new health care intervention is to be compared with the current standard, an economic evaluation alongside an evaluation of health benefits provides useful information for the decision making process. We consider the information on cost-effectiveness which arises from an individual clinical trial comparing the two interventions. Recent methods for conducting a cost-effectiveness analysis for a clinical trial have focused on the net benefit parameter. The net benefit parameter, a function of costs and health benefits, is positive if the new intervention is cost-effective compared with the standard. In this paper we describe frequentist and Bayesian approaches to cost-effectiveness analysis which have been suggested in the literature and apply them to data from a clinical trial comparing laparoscopic surgery with open mesh surgery for the repair of inguinal hernias. We extend the Bayesian model to allow the total cost to be divided into a number of different components. The advantages and disadvantages of the different approaches are discussed. In January 2001, NICE issued guidance on the type of surgery to be used for inguinal hernia repair. We discuss our example in the light of this information. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Epidemiological risk assessment using linked network and grid based modelling: Phytophthora ramorum and Phytophthora kernoviae in the UK

We developed a stochastic simulation model incorporating most processes likely to be important in the spread of Phytophthora ramorum and similar diseases across the British landscape (covering Rhododendron ponticum in woodland and nurseries, and Vaccinium myrtillus in heathland). The simulation allows for movements of diseased plants within a realistically modelled trade network and long-distance natural dispersal. A series of simulation experiments were run with the model, representing an experiment varying the epidemic pressure and linkage between natural vegetation and horticultural trade, with or without disease spread in commercial trade, and with or without inspections-with-eradication, to give a 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 factorial started at 10 arbitrary locations spread across England. Fifty replicate simulations were made at each set of parameter values. Individual epidemics varied dramatically in size due to stochastic effects throughout the model. Across a range of epidemic pressures, the size of the epidemic was 5-13 times larger when commercial movement of plants was included. A key unknown factor in the system is the area of susceptible habitat outside the nursery system. Inspections, with a probability of detection and efficiency of infected-plant removal of 80% and made at 90-day intervals, reduced the size of epidemics by about 60% across the three sectors with a density of 1% susceptible plants in broadleaf woodland and heathland. Reducing this density to 0.1% largely isolated the trade network, so that inspections reduced the final epidemic size by over 90%, and most epidemics ended without escape into nature. Even in this case, however, major wild epidemics developed in a few percent of cases. Provided the number of new introductions remains low, the current inspection policy will control most epidemics. However, as the rate of introduction increases, it can overwhelm any reasonable inspection regime, largely due to spread prior to detection. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Molecular, cellular and physiological investigation of myostatin propeptide-mediated muscle growth in adult mice

Inhibition of myostatin signalling or its biological activity has recently emerged as a potential remedial approach against muscle wasting and degenerative diseases such as muscular dystrophies. In the present study we systemically administered a recombinant AAV8 vector expressing a mutated myostatin propeptide (AAV8ProMyo) to healthy mice in order to assess its impact on the histological, cellular and physiological properties of the skeletal muscle, exploiting the fact that myostatin is naturally inhibited by its own propeptide. We report that a single intravenous administration of AAV8ProMyo leads to increases in muscle mass of tibialis anterior, extensor digitorum longus and gastrocnemius muscles 8 weeks post-injection and tibialis anterior, gastrocnemius and rectus femoris muscles 17 weeks post-injection. Moreover, treatment resulted in muscle fibre hypertrophy but not hyperplasia, with IIB myofibres responding to the greatest extent following propeptide-induced myostatin inhibition. Additionally, myofibre nuclear: cytoplasmic ratio was decreased in the AAV8ProMyo treated animals. Importantly, the hypertrophic EDL muscle 8 weeks after AAV8ProMyo treatment did not show the dramatic decrease in specific force displayed by the germline myostatin null mice. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.