Adaptive MCMC methods with applications in environmental and geophysical models

This work presents new, efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation methods for statistical analysis in various modelling applications. When using MCMC methods, the model is simulated repeatedly to explore the probability distribution describing the uncertainties in model parameters and predictions. In adaptive MCMC methods based on the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, the proposal distribution needed by the algorithm learns from the target distribution as the simulation proceeds. Adaptive MCMC methods have been subject of intensive research lately, as they open a way for essentially easier use of the methodology. The lack of user-friendly computer programs has been a main obstacle for wider acceptance of the methods. This work provides two new adaptive MCMC methods: DRAM and AARJ. The DRAM method has been built especially to work in high dimensional and non-linear problems. The AARJ method is an extension to DRAM for model selection problems, where the mathematical formulation of the model is uncertain and we want simultaneously to fit several different models to the same observations. The methods were developed while keeping in mind the needs of modelling applications typical in environmental sciences. The development work has been pursued while working with several application projects. The applications presented in this work are: a winter time oxygen concentration model for Lake Tuusulanjärvi and adaptive control of the aerator; a nutrition model for Lake Pyhäjärvi and lake management planning; validation of the algorithms of the GOMOS ozone remote sensing instrument on board the Envisat satellite of European Space Agency and the study of the effects of aerosol model selection on the GOMOS algorithm.

CBS: an open platform that integrates predictive methods and epigenetics information to characterize conserved regulatory features in multiple Drosophila genomes.

Background: Information about the composition of regulatory regions is of great value for designing experiments to functionally characterize gene expression. The multiplicity of available applications to predict transcription factor binding sites in a particular locus contrasts with the substantial computational expertise that is demanded to manipulate them, which may constitute a potential barrier for the experimental community. Results: CBS (Conserved regulatory Binding Sites, http://compfly.bio.ub.es/CBS) is a public platform of evolutionarily conserved binding sites and enhancers predicted in multiple Drosophila genomes that is furnished with published chromatin signatures associated to transcriptionally active regions and other experimental sources of information. The rapid access to this novel body of knowledge through a user-friendly web interface enables non-expert users to identify the binding sequences available for any particular gene, transcription factor, or genome region. Conclusions: The CBS platform is a powerful resource that provides tools for data mining individual sequences and groups of co-expressed genes with epigenomics information to conduct regulatory screenings in Drosophila.