An examination of the 'gold standard' diagnosis of major depression in aged-care settings

Objectives: Individual clinical interviews are typically viewed as the “gold standard” when diagnosing major depressive disorder (MDD) and when examining the validity of self-rated questionnaires. However, this approach may be problematic with older people, who are known to underreport depressive symptomatology. This study examined the effect of including an informant interview on prevalence estimations of MDD in an aged-care sample.

Design: The results of an individual clinical interview for MDD were compared with those obtained when an informant interview was incorporated into the assessment. Results from each diagnostic approach were compared with scores on a self-rated depression instrument.

Setting: Low-level aged-care residential facilities in Melbourne (equivalent to “residential homes,” “homes for the elderly,” or “assisted living facilities” in other countries).

Participants: One hundred and sixty-eight aged-care residents (mean age: 84.68 years; SD: 6.16 years) with normal cognitive functioning.

Measurements: Individual clinical interviews were conducted using the Structured Clinical Interview for Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition Axis I Disorders. This interview was modified for use with staff informants. Self-reported depression was measured using the Geriatric Depression Scale-15 (GDS-15).

Results: The estimated point prevalence of MDD rose from 16% to 22% by including an informant clinical interview in the diagnostic procedure. Overall, 27% of depressed residents failed to disclose symptoms in the clinical interview. The concordance of the GDS-15 with a diagnosis of MDD was substantially lower when an informant source was included in the diagnostic procedure.

Conclusion: Individual interviews and self-report questionnaires may be insufficient to detect depression among older adults. This study supports the use of an informant interview as an adjunct when diagnosing MDD among cognitively intact aged-care residents.

The Samuelson hypothesis in futures markets : an analysis using intraday data

This paper considers the Samuelson hypothesis, which argues that the futures price volatility increases as the futures contract approaches its expiration. Utilizing intraday data from 20 futures markets in six futures exchanges, we find strong support for the Samuelson hypothesis in agricultural futures. However, the Samuelson hypothesis does not hold for other futures contracts. We also provide supporting evidence that the ‘negative covariance’ hypothesis is the key factor for the empirical support of the Samuelson hypothesis. In addition, our findings remain largely unaltered even after we control for seasonality and liquidity effects.

Realized volatility and correlation in grain futures markets: testing for spillover effects

Fluctuations in commodity prices are a major concern to many market participants. This paper uses realized volatility methods to calculate daily volatility and correlation estimates for three grain futures prices (corn, soybean, and wheat). The realized volatility estimates exhibit properties consistent with the stylized facts observed in earlier studies. According to daily realized correlations and regression coefficients, the spot returns from the three grain futures are positively related. The realized estimates are then used to evaluate the degree of volatility transmission across grain futures prices. The impulse response analysis is conducted by fitting the vector autoregressive model to realized volatility and correlation estimates, using the bootstrap method for statistical inference. The results indicate that rich dynamic interactions exist among the volatilities and correlations across the grain futures markets.

Dispersion of information or market behaviour : general public trading in S & P 500 index futures

This paper considers 15 minute records of trading volume and traded prices coinciding with the reporting intervals required by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Records are extracted from trade records for two way trade between market makers (CTI1) and the general public (CTI4) from January 1994 to June 2004. Futures price records are matched with S&P500 cash index price records. Simultaneous volatility models are specified and estimated to test trading volume to futures volatility lead/lag effects and also futures volatility to cash index volatility lead/lag effects. There is evidence that existing theoretical models of the general public trading behaviour do not explain such behaviour in these very actively traded markets. These effects can depend more on market conditions than what is suggested in theoretical models.

The trading dynamics of close-substitute futures markets : evidence of margin policy spillover effects

Volatility spillover is well documented among closely related securities. I investigate the relationship between margin policy and trading dynamics of the Nikkei 225 index futures markets of Osaka Securities Exchange (OSE) and Singapore Exchange (SGX). I find that OSE’s margin policy influences trading dynamics across both markets, although it is the less liquid SGX market that performs price discovery. This suggests that policy markers of close substitute markets should coordinate, or at least communicate policy intentions due to policy spillover. SGX’s market design facilitates price discovery, suggesting that a microstructure framework capable of overcoming the liquidity entry barrier is of interest to any futures exchange contemplating contract proliferation.

Economic linkages across commodity futures : hedging and trading implications

We investigate cross-market trading dynamics in futures contracts written on seemingly unrelated commodities that are consumed by a common industry. On the Tokyo Commodity Exchange, we find such evidence in natural rubber (NR), palladium (PA) and gasoline (GA) futures markets. The automobile industry is responsible for more than 50% of global demand for each of these commodities. VAR estimation reveals short-run cross-market interaction between NR and GA, and from NR to PA. Cross-market influence exerted by PA is felt in longer dynamics, with PA volatility (volume) affecting NR (GA) volume (volatility). Our findings are robust to lag-specification, volatility measure, and consistent with full BEKK-GARCH estimation results. Further analysis, which benchmarks against silver futures market, TOCOM index and TOPIX transportation index, confirms that our results are driven by a common industry exposure, and not a commodity market factor. A simple trading rule that incorporates short-run GA and long-run PA dynamics to predict NR return yields positive economic profit. Our study offers new insights into how commodity and equity markets relate at an industry level, and implications for multi-commodity hedging.

Japanese investment on the Gold Coast : the interface of globalization and locality

This study explored the interface between the forces of globalization and a given place, at a given time, the Gold Coast during the 1980s. The global economic boom of the 1980s was one in which the role of Japan was particularly important. In less than half a decade capital flows from Japan surged to make it the world's largest investor. Locations in the Pacific Basin were favoured destinations for Japanese investment, one of the most significant was the Gold Coast. Japanese capital and tourism helped transform its urban area from a national resort to an international tourist destination and resort centre, The surge of capital arriving to the Gold Coast was a function of economic conditions in Japan, as was its steep reduction after November 1989, Thus the Gold Coast became integrated into global capital flows and so dependent on decisions made in Tokyo, one of the main financial centres of the world. However this study has also sought to explore a more complex reality; namely, that this place also became the interface of complex cultural forces and perceptions. The wealth of the Japanese investors on the Gold Coast enabled them to realize their dream of developing projects in the most fashionable global styles. These styles were essentially Western, and it was onto these that their Japanese owners ascribed their own meanings; meanings that reflected the cultural baggage that they had brought from Japan, and through which were filtered the economic and environmental realities of the Gold Coast. The Gold Coast as locality also included residents. Hence it became an interface between two different groups of people, the Japanese and the strongly Anglo-Celtic local community. Some in the local community perceived the Japanese presence as a threat to their perception of the Gold Coast, in fact, a threat to their perception of Australia's national identity. A campaign based on the politics of memory of the Japanese developed on the Gold Coast. Within weeks it became a national debate in which isolationalist, if not xenophobic traditionalists, concentrated on the Gold Coast challenged the economic rationalism and multicultural tolerance of the self-interested and ideologically convinced advocates of globalization. Governments at all levels sought to arbitrate, to legitimize standpoints, but more often than not were seen to move into positions of ineffectual flexibility. The forces of globalization on the Gold Coast were catalysts for change that in turn provoked local opposition which rapidly became a debate about national identity and direction. It is in the exploration of the complex and contradictory economic, cultural and political forces engendered by globalization that this study has sought to make a distinctive contribution.