Ranking of global climate models for India using multicriterion analysis

Eleven GCMs (BCCR-BCCM2.0, INGV-ECHAM4, GFDL2.0, GFDL2.1, GISS, IPSL-CM4, MIROC3, MRI-CGCM2, NCAR-PCMI, UKMO-HADCM3 and UKMO-HADGEM1) were evaluated for India (covering 73 grid points of 2.5 degrees x 2.5 degrees) for the climate variable `precipitation rate' using 5 performance indicators. Performance indicators used were the correlation coefficient, normalised root mean square error, absolute normalised mean bias error, average absolute relative error and skill score. We used a nested bias correction methodology to remove the systematic biases in GCM simulations. The Entropy method was employed to obtain weights of these 5 indicators. Ranks of the 11 GCMs were obtained through a multicriterion decision-making outranking method, PROMETHEE-2 (Preference Ranking Organisation Method of Enrichment Evaluation). An equal weight scenario (assigning 0.2 weight for each indicator) was also used to rank the GCMs. An effort was also made to rank GCMs for 4 river basins (Godavari, Krishna, Mahanadi and Cauvery) in peninsular India. The upper Malaprabha catchment in Karnataka, India, was chosen to demonstrate the Entropy and PROMETHEE-2 methods. The Spearman rank correlation coefficient was employed to assess the association between the ranking patterns. Our results suggest that the ensemble of GFDL2.0, MIROC3, BCCR-BCCM2.0, UKMO-HADCM3, MPIECHAM4 and UKMO-HADGEM1 is suitable for India. The methodology proposed can be extended to rank GCMs for any selected region.

Finite size scaling in crossover among different random matrix ensembles in microscopic lattice models

Using numerical diagonalization we study the crossover among different random matrix ensembles (Poissonian, Gaussian orthogonal ensemble (GOE), Gaussian unitary ensemble (GUE) and Gaussian symplectic ensemble (GSE)) realized in two different microscopic models. The specific diagnostic tool used to study the crossovers is the level spacing distribution. The first model is a one-dimensional lattice model of interacting hard-core bosons (or equivalently spin 1/2 objects) and the other a higher dimensional model of non-interacting particles with disorder and spin-orbit coupling. We find that the perturbation causing the crossover among the different ensembles scales to zero with system size as a power law with an exponent that depends on the ensembles between which the crossover takes place. This exponent is independent of microscopic details of the perturbation. We also find that the crossover from the Poissonian ensemble to the other three is dominated by the Poissonian to GOE crossover which introduces level repulsion while the crossover from GOE to GUE or GOE to GSE associated with symmetry breaking introduces a subdominant contribution. We also conjecture that the exponent is dependent on whether the system contains interactions among the elementary degrees of freedom or not and is independent of the dimensionality of the system.

Anatomy of Higgs mass in supersymmetric inverse seesaw models

We compute the one loop corrections to the CP-even Higgs mass matrix in the supersymmetric inverse seesaw model to single out the different cases where the radiative corrections from the neutrino sector could become important. It is found that there could be a significant enhancement in the Higgs mass even for Dirac neutrino masses of O(30) GeV if the left-handed sneutrino soft mass is comparable or larger than the right-handed neutrino mass. In the case where right-handed neutrino masses are significantly larger than the supersymmetry breaking scale, the corrections can utmost account to an upward shift of 3 GeV. For very heavy multi TeV sneutrinos, the corrections replicate the stop corrections at 1-loop. We further show that general gauge mediation with inverse seesaw model naturally accommodates a 125 GeV Higgs with TeV scale stops. (C) 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Development and Evaluation of Statistical Downscaling Models for Monthly Precipitation

Several statistical downscaling models have been developed in the past couple of decades to assess the hydrologic impacts of climate change by projecting the station-scale hydrological variables from large-scale atmospheric variables simulated by general circulation models (GCMs). This paper presents and compares different statistical downscaling models that use multiple linear regression (MLR), positive coefficient regression (PCR), stepwise regression (SR), and support vector machine (SVM) techniques for estimating monthly rainfall amounts in the state of Florida. Mean sea level pressure, air temperature, geopotential height, specific humidity, U wind, and V wind are used as the explanatory variables/predictors in the downscaling models. Data for these variables are obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) reanalysis dataset and the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) Coupled Global Climate Model, version 3 (CGCM3) GCM simulations. The principal component analysis (PCA) and fuzzy c-means clustering method (FCM) are used as part of downscaling model to reduce the dimensionality of the dataset and identify the clusters in the data, respectively. Evaluation of the performances of the models using different error and statistical measures indicates that the SVM-based model performed better than all the other models in reproducing most monthly rainfall statistics at 18 sites. Output from the third-generation CGCM3 GCM for the A1B scenario was used for future projections. For the projection period 2001-10, MLR was used to relate variables at the GCM and NCEP grid scales. Use of MLR in linking the predictor variables at the GCM and NCEP grid scales yielded better reproduction of monthly rainfall statistics at most of the stations (12 out of 18) compared to those by spatial interpolation technique used in earlier studies.