Quantifying uncertainty: physicians' estimates of infection in critically ill neonates and children.

To determine the diagnostic accuracy of physicians' prior probability estimates of serious infection in critically ill neonates and children, we conducted a prospective cohort study in 2 intensive care units. Using available clinical, laboratory, and radiographic information, 27 physicians provided 2567 probability estimates for 347 patients (follow-up rate, 92%). The median probability estimate of infection increased from 0% (i.e., no antibiotic treatment or diagnostic work-up for sepsis), to 2% on the day preceding initiation of antibiotic therapy, to 20% at initiation of antibiotic treatment (P<.001). At initiation of treatment, predictions discriminated well between episodes subsequently classified as proven infection and episodes ultimately judged unlikely to be infection (area under the curve, 0.88). Physicians also showed a good ability to predict blood culture-positive sepsis (area under the curve, 0.77). Treatment and testing thresholds were derived from the provided predictions and treatment rates. Physicians' prognoses regarding the presence of serious infection were remarkably precise. Studies investigating the value of new tests for diagnosis of sepsis should establish that they add incremental value to physicians' judgment.

Human parvovirus B19 infection and hydrops fetalis in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Formalin-fixed paraffin embedded lung and liver tissue from 23 cases of non immune hydrops fetalis and five control cases, in which hydrops were due to syphilis (3) and genetic causes (2), were examined for the presence of human parvovirus B19 by DNA hybridisation. Using in situ hybridisation with a biotynilated probe one positive case was detected. Using 32P-labelled probes in a dot blot assay format, five further positives were obtained. These were all confirmed as positive by a nested polymerase chain reaction assay. Electron microscopy revealed virus in all these five positive cases. The six B19 DNA positive cases of hydrops fetalis were from 1974, 1980, 1982, 1987 and 1988, four of which occurred during the second half of the year, confirming the seasonality of the disease.

Agglutinating Secretory IgA Preserves Intestinal Epithelial Cell Integrity during Apical Infection by Shigella flexneri.

Shigella flexneri, by invading intestinal epithelial cells (IECs) and inducing inflammatory responses of the colonic mucosa, causes bacillary dysentery. Although M cells overlying Peyer's patches are commonly considered the primary site of entry of S. flexneri, indirect evidence suggests that bacteria can also use IECs as a portal of entry to the lamina propria. Passive delivery of secretory IgA (SIgA), the major immunoglobulin secreted at mucosal surfaces, has been shown to protect rabbits from experimental shigellosis, but no information exists as to its molecular role in maintaining luminal epithelial integrity. We have established that the interaction of virulent S. flexneri with the apical pole of a model intestinal epithelium consisting of polarized Caco-2 cell monolayers resulted in the progressive disruption of the tight junction network and actin depolymerization, eventually resulting in cell death. The lipopolysaccharide (LPS)-specific agglutinating SIgAC5 monoclonal antibody (MAb), but not monomeric IgAC5 or IgGC20 MAbs of the same specificity, achieved protective functions through combined mechanisms, including limitation of the interaction between S. flexneri and epithelial cells, maintenance of the tight junction seal, preservation of the cell morphology, reduction of NF-κB nuclear translocation, and inhibition of proinflammatory mediator secretion. Our results add to the understanding of the function of SIgA-mediated immune exclusion by identifying a mode of action whereby the formation of immune complexes translates into maintenance of the integrity of epithelial cells lining the mucosa. This novel mechanism of protection mediated by SIgA is important to extend the arsenal of effective strategies to fight against S. flexneri mucosal invasion.