A data collection case study supporting requirements oriented prediction and management in software developments

Consider the statement "this project should cost X and has risk of Y". Such statements are used daily in industry as the basis for making decisions. The work reported here is part of a study aimed at providing a rational and pragmatic basis for such statements. Of particular interest are predictions made in the requirements and early phases of projects. A preliminary model has been constructed using Bayesian Belief Networks and in support of this, a programme to collect and study data during the execution of various software development projects commenced in May 2002. The data collection programme is undertaken under the constraints of a commercial industrial regime of multiple concurrent small to medium scale software development projects. Guided by pragmatism, the work is predicated on the use of data that can be collected readily by project managers; including expert judgements, effort, elapsed times and metrics collected within each project.

Transient teleconnection event at the onset of a planet-encircling dust storm on Mars

We use proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) to study a transient teleconnection event at the onset of the 2001 planet-encircling dust storm on Mars, in terms of empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs). There are several differences between this and previous studies of atmospheric events using EOFs. First, instead of using a single variable such as surface pressure or geopotential height on a given pressure surface, we use a dataset describing the evolution in time of global and fully three-dimensional atmospheric fields such as horizontal velocity and temperature. These fields are produced by assimilating Thermal Emission Spectrometer observations from NASA's Mars Global Surveyor spacecraft into a Mars general circulation model. We use total atmospheric energy (TE) as a physically meaningful quantity which weights the state variables. Second, instead of adopting the EOFs to define teleconnection patterns as planetary-scale correlations that explain a large portion of long time-scale variability, we use EOFs to understand transient processes due to localised heating perturbations that have implications for the atmospheric circulation over distant regions. The localised perturbation is given by anomalous heating due to the enhanced presence of dust around the northern edge of the Hellas Planitia basin on Mars. We show that the localised disturbance is seemingly restricted to a small number (a few tens) of EOFs. These can be classified as low-order, transitional, or high-order EOFs according to the TE amount they explain throughout the event. Despite the global character of the EOFs, they show the capability of accounting for the localised effects of the perturbation via the presence of specific centres of action. We finally discuss possible applications for the study of terrestrial phenomena with similar characteristics.

Variation of the mixing state of Saharan dust particles with atmospheric transport

Mineral dust is an important aerosol species in the Earth’s atmosphere and has a major source within North Africa, of which the Sahara forms the major part. Aerosol Time of Flight Mass Spectrometry (ATOFMS) is first used to determine the mixing state of dust particles collected from the land surface in the Saharan region, showing low abundance of species such as nitrate and sulphate internally mixed with the dust mineral matrix. These data are then compared with the ATOFMS single particle mass spectra of Saharan dust particles detected in the marine atmosphere in the vicinity of the Cape Verde islands, which are further compared with those from particles with longer atmospheric residence sampled at a coastal station at Mace Head, Ireland. Saharan dust particles collected near the Cape Verde Islands showed increased internally mixed nitrate but no sulphate, whilst Saharan dust particles collected on the coast of Ireland showed a very high degree of internally mixed secondary species including nitrate, sulphate and methanesulphonate. This uptake of secondary species will change the pH and hygroscopic properties of the aerosol dust and thus can influence the budgets of other reactive gases, as well as influencing the radiative properties of the particles and the availability of metals for dissolution.

Superovulation and embryo collection in nulliparous Boer goat does immunized against a recombinant ovine alpha-subunit inhibin

With the purpose of eliciting a superovulatory response, 12 adult nulliparous Boer goat does were actively immunized against a recombinant a-subunit of ovine inhibin (roIHN-alpha; two injections of 100 mg 4 weeks apart). Another 12 control Boer goat does were treated with physiological saline and acted as controls. One year later the immunized animals were boostered by the administration of another dose (100 mg) of the immunogen. Following treatment, blood samples were collected twice weekly for the periods of 16 and 12 weeks, respectively, to monitor the inhibin binding ability with the aid of a radio-tracer binding assay. Throughout the experiment, estrus detection was conducted twice daily with the aid of an aproned intact buck. From the first day after treatment to 48 h after standing estrus, ovarian activity was monitored daily by transrectal ultrasonography. On alternate estrous cycles, does were mated and 6 days later flushed transcervically to recover embryos. All goats treated with the roIHN-alpha produced antibodies reactive to the native bovine inhibin tracer-the titre increasing from 2.9 +/- 0.4 to a maximum of 21.9 +/- 2.9% binding after the second injection. The antibody titre gradually subsided over the next 16 weeks. The booster injection restored an elevated antibody titre (11.7 +/- 0.4%), which was maintained until the end of the sampling period 12 weeks later. In the control goats only trace amounts of antibody were recorded throughout the trial. In the roIHN-alpha-immunized goats the number of follicles reaching a diameter of > 4 mm was 14.6 +/- 1.2 per doe. A positive correlation was recorded between the follicle number and antibody titre (r=0.61; P < 0.01). The number of follicles ovulating per doe (6.9 +/- 0.7) followed the same tendency-however, the proportion decreased with increasing follicle numbers. A relatively weak correlation was recorded between the inhibin binding ability and number of ovulations (r=0.27; P < 0.05). In the control goats the majority (92%) of follicles exceeding 4 mm in diameter ovulated (2.5 +/- 0.1 follicles/doe). Embryo collection proved unsatisfactory (42% versus 39% recovery for immunized and control animals, respectively)-presumably because the uterine lumen of the nulliparous does was too narrow to permit effective flushing. In the group of immunized goats the occurrence of short estrous cycles (< 15 days) recorded was 34% versus only 6% in the controls. Overall, immunization of goats against roIHN-alpha led to an almost six-fold increase in number of ovarian follicles, a three-fold increase in ovulations and, despite the low recovery rate, a more than three-fold increase in ova or embryos recovered. It may be concluded that treatment of female goats with roIHN-alpha leads to an inhibin antibody response, accompanied by enhanced ovarian activity. The response was, however, accompanied by a large proportion of retained follicles and a high incidence of short estrous cycles. These problems need to be further investigated before rendering the method fit for application in embryo transfer programs in goats. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Comparison of dietary fat and fatty acid intake estimated by the duplicate diet collection technique and estimated dietary records

Introduction A high saturated fatty acid intake is a well recognized risk factor for coronary heart disease development. More recently a high intake of n-6 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) in combination with a low intake of the long chain n-3 PUFA, eicosapentaenoic acid and docosahexaenoic acid has also been implicated as an important risk factor. Aim To compare total dietary fat and fatty acid intake measured by chemical analysis of duplicate diets with nutritional database analysis of estimated dietary records, collected over the same 3-day study period. Methods Total fat was analysed using soxhlet extraction and subsequently the individual fatty acid content of the diet was determined by gas chromatography. Estimated dietary records were analysed using a nutrient database which was supplemented with a selection of dishes commonly consumed by study participants. Results Bland & Altman statistical analysis demonstrated a lack of agreement between the two dietary assessment techniques for determining dietary fat and fatty acid intake. Conclusion The lack of agreement observed between dietary evaluation techniques may be attributed to inadequacies in either or both assessment techniques. This study highlights the difficulties that may be encountered when attempting to accurately evaluate dietary fat intake among the population.

An investigation and comparison of the bioactivity of selected essential oils on human lice and house dust mites

The insecticidal potency of some essential oils suggests that they may find an application in the control of house dust mites, but current in vitro assays for mites do not appear to give consistent results. A simple, novel, mite chamber assay was therefore developed to carry out testing. Different species of insects are susceptible to different essential oil components, so we compared the relative acaricidal and pediculicidal activity of three essential oils: tea tree, lavender and lemon, because the activity of their constituents on lice ranges from highly active to virtually inactive. The most effective essential oil against both lice and mites was tea tree oil; lavender was the second most effective, and lemon oil the least, although it did show activity against mites, unlike lice. The assay proved simple and effective and gave reproducible results. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Stubs versus swabs? A comparison of gunshot residue collection techniques

The collection efficiency of two widely used gunshot residue (GSR) collection techniques—carbon-coated adhesive stubs and alcohol swabs—has been compared by counting the number of characteristic GSR particles collected from the firing hand of a shooter after firing one round. Samples were analyzed with both scanning electron microscopy and energy dispersive X-rays by an experienced GSR analyst, and the number of particles on each sample containing Pb, Ba, and Sb counted. The adhesive stubs showed a greater collection efficiency as all 24 samples gave positive results for GSR particles whereas the swabs gave only positive results for half of the 24 samples. Results showed a statistically significant collection efficiency for the stub collection method and likely reasons for this are considered.

Cosmic rays, clouds, and climate

It has been proposed that Earth's climate could be affected by changes in cloudiness caused by variations in the intensity of galactic cosmic rays in the atmosphere. This proposal stems from an observed correlation between cosmic ray intensity and Earth's average cloud cover over the course of one solar cycle. Some scientists question the reliability of the observations, whereas others, who accept them as reliable, suggest that the correlation may be caused by other physical phenomena with decadal periods or by a response to volcanic activity or El Niño. Nevertheless, the observation has raised the intriguing possibility that a cosmic ray–cloud interaction may help explain how a relatively small change in solar output can produce much larger changes in Earth's climate. Physical mechanisms have been proposed to explain how cosmic rays could affect clouds, but they need to be investigated further if the observation is to become more than just another correlation among geophysical variables.