Downscaling and Modeling the Effects of Climate Change on Hydrology and Water Resources in the Upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia

The Upper Blue Nile River Basin (UBNRB) located in the western part of Ethiopia, between 7° 45’ and 12° 45’N and 34° 05’ and 39° 45’E has a total area of 174962 km2 . More than 80% of the population in the basin is engaged in agricultural activities. Because of the particularly dry climate in the basin, likewise to most other regions of Ethiopia, the agricultural productivity depends to a very large extent on the occurrence of the seasonal rains. This situation makes agriculture highly vulnerable to the impact of potential climate hazards which are about to inflict Africa as a whole and Ethiopia in particular. To analyze these possible impacts of future climate change on the water resources in the UBNRB, in the first part of the thesis climate projection for precipitation, minimum and maximum temperatures in the basin, using downscaled predictors from three GCMs (ECHAM5, GFDL21 and CSIRO-MK3) under SRES scenarios A1B and A2 have been carried out. The two statistical downscaling models used are SDSM and LARS-WG, whereby SDSM is used to downscale ECHAM5-predictors alone and LARS-WG is applied in both mono-model mode with predictors from ECHAM5 and in multi-model mode with combined predictors from ECHAM5, GFDL21 and CSIRO-MK3. For the calibration/validation of the downscaled models, observed as well as NCEP climate data in the 1970 - 2000 reference period is used. The future projections are made for two time periods; 2046-2065 (2050s) and 2081-2100 (2090s). For the 2050s future time period the downscaled climate predictions indicate rise of 0.6°C to 2.7°C for the seasonal maximum temperatures Tmax, and of 0.5°C to 2.44°C for the minimum temperatures Tmin. Similarly, during the 2090s the seasonal Tmax increases by 0.9°C to 4.63°C and Tmin by 1°C to 4.6°C, whereby these increases are generally higher for the A2 than for the A1B scenario. For most sub-basins of the UBNRB, the predicted changes of Tmin are larger than those of Tmax. Meanwhile, for the precipitation, both downscaling tools predict large changes which, depending on the GCM employed, are such that the spring and summer seasons will be experiencing decreases between -36% to 1% and the autumn and winter seasons an increase of -8% to 126% for the two future time periods, regardless of the SRES scenario used. In the second part of the thesis the semi-distributed, physically based hydrologic model, SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool), is used to evaluate the impacts of the above-predicted future climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the UBNRB. Hereby the downscaled future predictors are used as input in the SWAT model to predict streamflow of the Upper Blue Nile as well as other relevant water resources parameter in the basin. Calibration and validation of the streamflow model is done again on 1970-2000 measured discharge at the outlet gage station Eldiem, whereby the most sensitive out the numerous “tuneable” calibration parameters in SWAT have been selected by means of a sophisticated sensitivity analysis. Consequently, a good calibration/validation model performance with a high NSE-coefficient of 0.89 is obtained. The results of the future simulations of streamflow in the basin, using both SDSM- and LARS-WG downscaled output in SWAT reveal a decline of -10% to -61% of the future Blue Nile streamflow, And, expectedly, these obviously adverse effects on the future UBNRB-water availibiliy are more exacerbated for the 2090’s than for the 2050’s, regardless of the SRES.

Kooperationspotenziale 'Grüner Werkstätten' und Beschäftigungspotenziale landwirtschaftlicher Betriebe sowie des branchennahen Handwerks für Menschen mit Behinderung

In den bundesweit rund 670 anerkannten Werkstätten für behinderte Menschen (WfbM) arbeiten aktuell über 290 000 Menschen mit Behinderung. Rund ein Viertel dieser Einrichtungen bieten auch landwirtschaftliche oder gartenbauliche Arbeitsplätze (`Grüne WfbM´). Die UN-Behindertenrechtskonvention fordert u. a. eine inklusive Teilhabe der Menschen mit Behinderung am Arbeitsleben in Form von Zugangsmöglichkeiten zu sozialversicherungspflichtiger Beschäftigung auf dem allgemeinen Arbeitsmarkt. Gleichzeitig können arbeitswirtschaftlich immer mehr landwirtschaftliche Betriebe aufgrund wachsender Betriebsgrößen nicht mehr allein durch die Unternehmerfamilie geführt werden. Neben der Zuhilfenahme von Dienstleistungsanbietern ist die Suche nach Fremdarbeitskräften zwangsläufig. Neben dem Bedarf an qualifiziertem Fachpersonal werden auch Arbeitskräfte für einfachere, tägliche Routinearbeiten gesucht. Die vorliegende Arbeit begleitet wissenschaftlich ein vom Bundesministerium für Ernährung, Landwirtschaft und Verbraucherschutz gefördertes bundesweites Modellvorhaben zur Vernetzung `Grüner WfbM´ mit landwirtschaftlichen Betrieben. Forschungsleitende Fragestellungen sind die betrieblichen Interessen und Voraussetzungen aus Sicht der landwirtschaftlichen Betriebe für die Beschäftigung von Menschen mit Behinderung sowie für bilaterale Kooperationen mit diesen Einrichtungen. Anhand von 44 Betriebsinterviews und unter Anwendung einer qualitativen, rechnerbasierten Fallstudienanalyse zeigen die Ergebnisse eine Vielzahl von Möglichkeiten wirtschaftlich tragfähiger Beschäftigung behinderter Menschen auch in Kernproduktionsprozessen. Unabdingbar dafür sind angepasste Sozialtugenden und ausreichende Arbeitsmotivation auf Arbeitnehmerseite sowie eine offen-innovative und sozial geprägte Grundeinstellung auf Betriebsleitungsseite. Betriebe wünschen sich dauerhafte und verlässliche Arbeitsverhältnisse. Praktika oder gar Experimente kommen für sie eher nicht in Frage. Weniger als 10% aller `Grünen WfbM´ kooperieren bilateral mit umliegenden Betrieben. Dort wo keine Kontakte bestehen, sind Vorbehalte seitens der Landwirte hinsichtlich Wettbewerbsverzerrungen durch vermeintliche Sozialsubventionierung bzw. im Wettbewerb um Ressourcen (z.B. Land) gegenüber den Einrichtungen anzutreffen. Kooperationen fördern gegenseitiges Verständnis und sind so auch idealer `Türöffner´ für Beschäftigungsverhältnisse.

Survey of Agricultural Practices and Alternatives to Pesticide Use to Conserve Water Resources in the Mojanda Watershed, Ecuador

Agriculture in the Mojanda Watershed is facing rainfall reductions caused by climate change. Reductions of water availability in the Watershed are also due to constant extension of the agricultural activities into the páramo ecosystem above 3000m a.s.l., with this ecosystem having immanently important functions in the local water balance. The application of pesticides threatens the quality of water and with less precipitation contaminations will further concentrate in the outflow. To analyze problems associated with agricultural practices in the area a questionnaire about agricultural practices (28) was conducted and fields (20) were surveyed for pests and diseases with a focus on potatoes (Solanum tuberosum L.), tree tomatoes (Solanum betaceum Cav.) and peas (Pisum sativum L.). Potatoes were infected to a low degree with Phytophthora infestans and according to the farmers the Andean potato weevil (Premnotrypes spec.) caused biggest losses. To combat the weevil the soils are disinfected with toxic Carbofuran (WHO Class 1B). Tree tomatoes showed symptoms of various fungal diseases. Most important was Fusarium solani causing the branches to rot and Anthracnosis (Colletotrichum gloeosporioides) causing the fruits to rot. Fungicide applications were correspondingly high. Peas were only minorly affected by Ascochyta blight (Mycosphaerella pinodes) and a root rot. Overall 19 active ingredients were applied of which fungicide Mancozeb (WHO class table 5) and insecticide Carbofuran (WHO Class 1B) were applied the most. Approved IPM methods are advised to reduce pesticide use. For tree tomatoes regular cutting of branches infected with F. solani and regular collection and disposal of infected fruits with Anthracnosis are advised. For potatoes plastic barriers around the fields prevent the Andean potato weevil from laying eggs thus reducing infestation with the larvae in the tubers. Local bioinsecticide “Biol” seems effective and without harm to the environment, although not used by many farmers. Organic fertilization promises to restore decreasing soil fertility, water holding capacity and reduce erosion. The here presented alternatives and strategies to reduce pesticide use pose an opportunity to preserve the water resources of the region.