Equilibrium Exchange Rate Determination and Multiple Structural Changes

The large appreciation and depreciation of the US dollar in the 1980s stimulated an important debate on the usefulness of unit root tests in the presence of structural breaks. In this paper, we propose a simple model to describe the evolution of the real exchange rate. We then propose a more general smooth transition (STR) function than has hitherto been employed, which is able to capture structural changes along the (long-run) equilibrium path, and show that this is consistent with our economic model. Our framework allows for a gradual adjustment between regimes and allows for under- and/or over-valued exchange rate adjustments. Using monthly and quarterly data for up to twenty OECD countries, we apply our methodology to investigate the univariate time series properties of CPI-based real exchange rates with both the U.S. dollar and German mark as the numeraire currencies. The empirical results show that, for more than half of the quarterly series, the evidence in favour of the stationarity of the real exchange rate was clearer in the sub-sample period post-1980.

Oligomerization of the alpha 1a- and alpha 1b-adrenergic receptor subtypes. Potential implications in receptor internalization.

We combined biophysical, biochemical, and pharmacological approaches to investigate the ability of the alpha 1a- and alpha 1b-adrenergic receptor (AR) subtypes to form homo- and hetero-oligomers. Receptors tagged with different epitopes (hemagglutinin and Myc) or fluorescent proteins (cyan and green fluorescent proteins) were transiently expressed in HEK-293 cells either individually or in different combinations. Fluorescence resonance energy transfer measurements provided evidence that both the alpha 1a- and alpha 1b-AR can form homo-oligomers with similar transfer efficiency of approximately 0.10. Hetero-oligomers could also be observed between the alpha 1b- and the alpha 1a-AR subtypes but not between the alpha 1b-AR and the beta2-AR, the NK1 tachykinin, or the CCR5 chemokine receptors. Oligomerization of the alpha 1b-AR did not require the integrity of its C-tail, of two glycophorin motifs, or of the N-linked glycosylation sites at its N terminus. In contrast, helix I and, to a lesser extent, helix VII were found to play a role in the alpha 1b-AR homo-oligomerization. Receptor oligomerization was not influenced by the agonist epinephrine or by the inverse agonist prazosin. A constitutively active (A293E) as well as a signaling-deficient (R143E) mutant displayed oligomerization features similar to those of the wild type alpha 1b-AR. Confocal imaging revealed that oligomerization of the alpha1-AR subtypes correlated with their ability to co-internalize upon exposure to the agonist. The alpha 1a-selective agonist oxymetazoline induced the co-internalization of the alpha 1a- and alpha 1b-AR, whereas the alpha 1b-AR could not co-internalize with the NK1 tachykinin or CCR5 chemokine receptors. Oligomerization might therefore represent an additional mechanism regulating the physiological responses mediated by the alpha 1a- and alpha 1b-AR subtypes.

A Comparison Of Forecasting Procedures For Macroeconomic Series: The Contribution Of Structural Break Models

This paper compares the forecasting performance of different models which have been proposed for forecasting in the presence of structural breaks. These models differ in their treatment of the break process, the parameters defining the model which applies in each regime and the out-of-sample probability of a break occurring. In an extensive empirical evaluation involving many important macroeconomic time series, we demonstrate the presence of structural breaks and their importance for forecasting in the vast majority of cases. However, we find no single forecasting model consistently works best in the presence of structural breaks. In many cases, the formal modeling of the break process is important in achieving good forecast performance. However, there are also many cases where simple, rolling OLS forecasts perform well.

A Comparison Of Forecasting Procedures For Macroeconomic Series: The Contribution Of Structural Break Models

This paper compares the forecasting performance of different models which have been proposed for forecasting in the presence of structural breaks. These models differ in their treatment of the break process, the parameters defining the model which applies in each regime and the out-of-sample probability of a break occurring. In an extensive empirical evaluation involving many important macroeconomic time series, we demonstrate the presence of structural breaks and their importance for forecasting in the vast majority of cases. However, we find no single forecasting model consistently works best in the presence of structural breaks. In many cases, the formal modeling of the break process is important in achieving good forecast performance. However, there are also many cases where simple, rolling OLS forecasts perform well.