Cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes mortality burden of cardiometabolic risk factors from 1980 to 2010: a comparative risk assessment.

BACKGROUND: High blood pressure, blood glucose, serum cholesterol, and BMI are risk factors for cardiovascular diseases and some of these factors also increase the risk of chronic kidney disease and diabetes. We estimated mortality from cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes that was attributable to these four cardiometabolic risk factors for all countries and regions from 1980 to 2010. METHODS: We used data for exposure to risk factors by country, age group, and sex from pooled analyses of population-based health surveys. We obtained relative risks for the effects of risk factors on cause-specific mortality from meta-analyses of large prospective studies. We calculated the population attributable fractions for each risk factor alone, and for the combination of all risk factors, accounting for multicausality and for mediation of the effects of BMI by the other three risks. We calculated attributable deaths by multiplying the cause-specific population attributable fractions by the number of disease-specific deaths. We obtained cause-specific mortality from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2010 Study. We propagated the uncertainties of all the inputs to the final estimates. FINDINGS: In 2010, high blood pressure was the leading risk factor for deaths due to cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes in every region, causing more than 40% of worldwide deaths from these diseases; high BMI and glucose were each responsible for about 15% of deaths, and high cholesterol for more than 10%. After accounting for multicausality, 63% (10·8 million deaths, 95% CI 10·1-11·5) of deaths from these diseases in 2010 were attributable to the combined effect of these four metabolic risk factors, compared with 67% (7·1 million deaths, 6·6-7·6) in 1980. The mortality burden of high BMI and glucose nearly doubled from 1980 to 2010. At the country level, age-standardised death rates from these diseases attributable to the combined effects of these four risk factors surpassed 925 deaths per 100 000 for men in Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Mongolia, but were less than 130 deaths per 100 000 for women and less than 200 for men in some high-income countries including Australia, Canada, France, Japan, the Netherlands, Singapore, South Korea, and Spain. INTERPRETATION: The salient features of the cardiometabolic disease and risk factor epidemic at the beginning of the 21st century are high blood pressure and an increasing effect of obesity and diabetes. The mortality burden of cardiometabolic risk factors has shifted from high-income to low-income and middle-income countries. Lowering cardiometabolic risks through dietary, behavioural, and pharmacological interventions should be a part of the global response to non-communicable diseases. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council, US National Institutes of Health.

Editorial page: Health Needs Assessment

Health needs assessment is a systematic approach to improving the health of the population by ensuring that health services are delivered efficiently and in a manner that reduces inequalities.

Characterisation of the prodrome to a first episode of psychotic mania: results of a retrospective study.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the early phases of bipolar disorders (BPAD) and most of current knowledge derives from putative "high-risk" studies conducted in populations of bipolar off-spring; such information may therefore be relevant only to a sub-group of at-risk subjects. METHODS: Retrospective assessment of the phase preceding the emergence of mania and of premorbid characteristics of patients treated for a first episode of psychotic mania. The collected data was used mainly to generate hypotheses. RESULTS: Before onset of a first episode of psychotic mania, patients go through a phase of change from previous mental state where they present mood symptoms, sleep disruption and general functional decline. These clinical manifestations are however likely to have low specificity. However, their occurrence in patients presenting certain risk factors or markers of vulnerability that were identified at a relatively high prevalence in our sample, may be an indicator of impending first episode mania. LIMITATIONS: This is a retrospective study, in a small sample of patients presenting with psychotic mania. Criteria identified need therefore to be validated in larger prospective studies. CONCLUSIONS: Early identification of patients at risk to develop a first episode of psychotic mania is unlikely to be possible on the basis of symptoms alone. However, the occurrence of certain clinical characteristics in patients who have risk factors or markers of vulnerability to BPAD could be a sign of impending first episode mania.

Lumbar spine texture enhances 10-year fracture probability assessment.

We found that lumbar spine texture analysis using trabecular bone score (TBS) is a risk factor for MOF and a risk factor for death in a retrospective cohort study from a large clinical registry for the province of Manitoba, Canada. INTRODUCTION: FRAX® estimates the 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) using clinical risk factors and femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD). Trabecular bone score (TBS), derived from texture in the spine dual X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) image, is related to bone microarchitecture and fracture risk independently of BMD. Our objective was to determine whether TBS provides information on MOF probability beyond that provided by the FRAX variables. METHODS: We included 33,352 women aged 40-100 years (mean 63 years) with baseline DXA measurements of lumbar spine TBS and femoral neck BMD. The association between TBS, the FRAX variables, and the risk of MOF or death was examined using an extension of the Poisson regression model. RESULTS: During the mean of 4.7 years, 1,754 women died and 1,872 sustained one or more MOF. For each standard deviation reduction in TBS, there was a 36 % increase in MOF risk (HR 1.36, 95 % CI 1.30-1.42, p < 0.001) and a 32 % increase in death (HR 1.32, 95 % CI 1.26-1.39, p < 0.001). When adjusted for significant clinical risk factors and femoral neck BMD, lumbar spine TBS was still a significant predictor of MOF (HR 1.18, 95 % CI 1.12-1.23) and death (HR 1.20, 95 % CI 1.14-1.26). Models for estimating MOF probability, accounting for competing mortality, showed that low TBS (10th percentile) increased risk by 1.5-1.6-fold compared with high TBS (90th percentile) across a broad range of ages and femoral neck T-scores. CONCLUSIONS: Lumbar spine TBS is able to predict incident MOF independent of FRAX clinical risk factors and femoral neck BMD even after accounting for the increased death hazard.

Improving Health and Reducing Inequalities: A Practical Guide to Health Impact Assessment

(WHIASU) A basic guide to conducting a HIA. 1. Health impact assessment is a tool that can help organisations to assess the possible consequences of their decisions on people۪s health and well-being, thereby helping to develop more integrated policies and programmes. 2. This document has been developed as a practical guide to health impact assessment. It is designed to meet the needs of a variety of organisations by explaining the concept, the process and its flexibility, and by providing templates that can be adjusted to suit. 3. The Welsh Assembly Government is committed to developing the use of health impact assessment in Wales as a part of its strategy to improve health and wellbeing and to reduce health inequalities. This practical guide has been prepared by the Welsh Health Impact Assessment Support Unit, which was established by the Welsh Assembly Government to encourage and support organisations and groups in Wales to use the approach. 4. The development and use of health impact assessment will contribute to the ongoing development and implementation of local health, social care and wellbeing strategies, which is a joint statutory responsibility for Local Health Boards and local authorities. It can also contribute to Community Strategies which, given their overarching nature and breadth and depth, can address social, economic and environmental determinants of health, and to the implementation of Communities First, the Welsh Assembly Government۪s crosscutting regeneration programme. 5. The development of Health Challenge Wales as the national focus for improving health in Wales reinforces efforts to prevent ill health. Tools such as health impact assessment can help organisations and groups in all sectors to identify ways in which they can help people to improve their health.