Termos de troca, preço das commodities e o crescimento brasileiro : uma análise sob o prisma da restrição externa

This study aims to investigate the relationship between terms of trade and the long-term growth of Brazilian economy, from the perspective of external constraint, between the period 1994 to 2014. For this purpose, it is based on Thirlwall's (1979) original contribution, in order to empirically test the terms of trade contribution for determining the Brazilian growth potential product equivalent with Balance of Payments equilibriun. Using cointegration method, which seeks to analyze the long-term relationship between the variables, and subdividing the period into two sub-periods, 1994-2004 and 2004-2014, we estimate and compare real and hypothetical income elasticities and predicted and observed growth rates, with and without the terms of trade, for each period. The obteined results show that the inclusion of terms of trade in the empirical procedure to test the validity of Thirlwall's Law lead to higher growth rates obtained by the model (hypothetical), for the entire period 1994-2014 and for the sub-period 2004 -2014. This "theoretical" relaxation of the external constraint, caused by the inclusion of the terms of trade in traditional Thirlwall's rule, overestimated the average real growth rate for these periods, while the traditional Thirlwall's Law - without terms of trade - has adapted better to the real behavior of Brazilian economy. Thus, despite having contributed potentially for the relaxation of external constraint on Brazilian growth, the effect of terms of trade may have been offset by the negative performance of other Balance of Payments components, as capital flows and interest, profits and dividends payments abroad.

Restrição externa, dependência estrutural de commodities primárias e o investimento direto externo no Brasil

As the beginning of the discussion about the reprimarization process of the Brazilian exportations, or about a deindustrialization process of the country foreign sales, this study purpose that the discussion, actually, should be about the existence of the commodities structural dependence as a way to face the foreign restrictions. Therefore the intention is to show that, historically, the way that the Brazilian economy has crossed for its development depends of the foreign capital, mainly in its way of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), and in the balance generated by the primary products, which make us try to understand the impact of this capital for the equilibrium of the Brazilian Payment Balance and also for the economy. These points were discussed not only based on the Brazilian classic writers as Francisco Oliveira, Caio Prado Jr. and Celso Furtado, but also using the newest studies which contributes to point the causes and consequences of the external capital dependence in the actual scenario. The conclusions acquired in the end of the study, indicates the fact that the Brazilian specialization in products of low aggregated value is not recent. Brazil is, historically, a competitive country in primary products. At the same time, the country importation always was a pressure factor of the National Payments Balance, being composed by products with more aggregated value. According to some authors, this characteristic of the Brazilian Economy will be surpassed with the economic opening process, which will attract external capital making possible the modernization of the Brazilian productive sector. Therefore, we can claim that the FDI, in the way it has been inserted in the country, does not offer the opportunity to get out of the commodities dependence, as generators of the payment balances, because the country international competitive standard didn t get any important changes, keeping itself out of the step related to the global standard which has been intensified in products with more aggregated value. The changes in the national insertion standard directed to more technological products is really important to surpass the historical scenario of commodities dependence, making the country less vulnerable to external crisis.

Gilles Deleuze y el empirismo trascendental: una mirada externa, ¿disruptiva?

Fil: Prósperi, Germán. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Humanidades y Ciencias de la Educación; Argentina.

Homo e Heterossexuais: o papel das memórias de vergonha, das memórias precoces de calor e segurança, e qualidade de vinculação ao pai, à mãe e ao par amoroso

As experiências precoces de vergonha, na infância e adolescência, cujas memórias assumem características traumáticas, e de centralidade para a identidade, estão associadas a maior propensão para a vergonha e psicopatologia na adultez. O presente estudo visou clarificar o impacto das características traumáticas e da centralidade, das memórias de vergonha, e das memórias precoces de calor e segurança, na qualidade de vinculação aos pais e ao par amoroso, apreciando a orientação sexual. Nesse sentido, 123 sujeitos, homossexuais masculinos (N = 53) e heterossexuais masculinos e femininos (N = 70), completaram a bateria de questionários de autorresposta, para avaliar as caraterísticas traumáticas e a centralidade das memórias de vergonha, as memórias precoces de calor e segurança, a qualidade de vinculação ao pai, à mãe e ao par amoroso, recolhidos a partir de amostra de conveniência não aleatória da população geral. Os resultados mostram que os homossexuais, comparativamente com os heterossexuais, apresentam níveis mais elevados de caraterísticas traumáticas e de centralidade para a identidade, das memórias de vergonha, a par de níveis inferiores de memórias precoces positivas. As caraterísticas traumáticas e de centralidade, das memórias de vergonha, surgem associadas, com intensidade tendencialmente superior nos homossexuais, à restrição da aquisição de autonomia, conferida pelo pai, à sua desvalorização e à ansiedade de separação materna. O vínculo inseguro, aos progenitores, perpetua-se à adultez e ao par amoroso. Relativamente aos heterossexuais, apurámos que o laço emocional e a ansiedade de separação e dependência, paterna e materna, surgem associados a maior confiança e menor evitamento, respetivamente, ao par amoroso. Paralelamente, a ansiedade de separação e dependência materna surge, ainda, associada a maior dependência daquela figura. Este estudo conclui que as experiências precoces de vergonha, na infância e adolescência, podem funcionar como memórias com caraterísticas traumáticas e autobiográficas, constituir marcos de referência centrais no que concerne à identidade e história de vida, sobretudo em homossexuais, com atribuição de significado a outras experiências de vida, nomeadamente no que respeita à vinculação ao par romântico. / Early experiences of shame, in childhood and adolescence, whose memories assume traumatic characteristics, and centrality to identity, are associated with greater propensity to shame and psychopathology in adulthood. The present study aimed to clarify the impact of traumatic features and centrality to identity of shame memories, and of early memories of warmth and safety, on quality of attachment to parents and the loving couple`s bond, considering sexual orientation. Accordingly, 123 subjects, male homosexuals (N = 53) and male and female (N = 70) heterosexuals, completed the battery of self-report questionnaires, to assess trauma characteristics and centrality of shame memories, early memories of warmth and safeness, quality of attachment to the father, mother and loving couple, collected from a non-random convenience sample from general population. The results point that homosexual men, compared with heterosexuals, show higher levels of traumatic characteristics and centrality to identity of shame memories, along with lower levels of early positive memories. Traumatic characteristics and centrality of shame memories arise associated, tendentiously with higher intensity in homosexuals, to restriction of autonomy`s acquisition, conferred by the father, his devaluation and maternal separation anxiety. The unsecured bond, to parents, perpetuates into adulthood and loving couple. Regarding heterosexuals, we found that emotional bond and separation anxiety and dependency, paternal and maternal, arise associated with greater confidence, and less avoidance, respectively, to the loving couple. Further, separation anxiety and mother`s dependency also appears associated with greater dependency to that figure. This study concludes that early experiences of shame, in childhood and adolescence, might function as memories with traumatic and autobiographical characteristics, produce landmarks of central reference regarding identity and life`s history, particularly in homosexual, with attribution of meaning to other life experiences, particularly in the linking to the romantic couple.