Forecast uncertainty—ex Ante and ex Post: U.S. inflation and output growth

Survey respondents who make point predictions and histogram forecasts of macro-variables reveal both how uncertain they believe the future to be, ex ante, as well as their ex post performance. Macroeconomic forecasters tend to be overconfident at horizons of a year or more, but overestimate (i.e., are underconfident regarding) the uncertainty surrounding their predictions at short horizons. Ex ante uncertainty remains at a high level compared to the ex post measure as the forecast horizon shortens. There is little evidence of a link between individuals’ ex post forecast accuracy and their ex ante subjective assessments.

Hurricanes and climate: the U.S. CLIVAR working group on hurricanes

While a quantitative climate theory of tropical cyclone formation remains elusive, considerable progress has been made recently in our ability to simulate tropical cyclone climatologies and understand the relationship between climate and tropical cyclone formation. Climate models are now able to simulate a realistic rate of global tropical cyclone formation, although simulation of the Atlantic tropical cyclone climatology remains challenging unless horizontal resolutions finer than 50 km are employed. This article summarizes published research from the idealized experiments of the Hurricane Working Group of U.S. CLIVAR (CLImate VARiability and predictability of the ocean-atmosphere system). This work, combined with results from other model simulations, has strengthened relationships between tropical cyclone formation rates and climate variables such as mid-tropospheric vertical velocity, with decreased climatological vertical velocities leading to decreased tropical cyclone formation. Systematic differences are shown between experiments in which only sea surface temperature is increased versus experiments where only atmospheric carbon dioxide is increased, with the carbon dioxide experiments more likely to demonstrate the decrease in tropical cyclone numbers previously shown to be a common response of climate models in a warmer climate. Experiments where the two effects are combined also show decreases in numbers, but these tend to be less for models that demonstrate a strong tropical cyclone response to increased sea surface temperatures. Further experiments are proposed that may improve our understanding of the relationship between climate and tropical cyclone formation, including experiments with two-way interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere and variations in atmospheric aerosols.

Variability of the interplanetary medium at 1 A.U. over 24 years: 1963–1986

A survey is presented of hourly averages of observations of the interplanetary medium, made by satellites close to the Earth (i.e. at l a.u.) in the years 1963-1986. This survey therefore covers two complete solar cycles (numbers 20 and 21). The distributions and solar-cycle variations of IMF field strength, B, and its northward component (in GSM coordinates), B(z), and of the solar-wind density, n, speed, v, and dynamic pressure, P, are discussed. Because of their importance to the terrestrial magnetosphere/ionosphere, particular attention is given to B(z) and P. The solar-cycle variation in the magnitude and variability of B(z) previously reported for cycle 20, is also found for cycle 21. However, the solar-wind data show a number of differences between cycles 20 and 21. The average dynamic pressure is found to show a solar-cycle variation and a systematic increase over the period of the survey. The minimum of dynamic pressure at sunspot maximum is mainly due to reduced solar-wind densities in cycle 20, but lower solar-wind speed in cycle 21 is a more significant factor. The distribution of the duration of periods of stable polarity of the IMF B(z) component shows that the magnetosphere could achieve steady state for only a small fraction of the time and there is some evidence for a solar-cycle variation in this fraction. It is also found that the polarity changes in the IMF B(z) fall into two classes: one with an associated change in solar-wind dynamic pressure, the other without such a change. However, in only 20% of cases does the dynamic pressure change exceed 50%.

On the predictive content of leading indicators: the case of U.S. real estate markets

This paper employs a probit and a Markov switching model using information from the Conference Board Leading Indicator and other predictor variables to forecast the signs of future rental growth in four key U.S. commercial rent series. We find that both approaches have considerable power to predict changes in the direction of commercial rents up to two years ahead, exhibiting strong improvements over a naïve model, especially for the warehouse and apartment sectors. We find that while the Markov switching model appears to be more successful, it lags behind actual turnarounds in market outcomes whereas the probit is able to detect whether rental growth will be positive or negative several quarters ahead.

Want to block earworms from conscious awareness?B(u)y gum!

Three experiments examine the role of articulatory motor planning in experiencing an involuntary musical recollection (an “earworm”). Experiment 1 shows that interfering with articulatory motor programming by chewing gum reduces both the number of voluntary and the number of involuntary—unwanted—musical thoughts. This is consistent with other findings that chewing gum interferes with voluntary processes such as recollections from verbal memory, the interpretation of ambiguous auditory images, and the scanning of familiar melodies, but is not predicted by theories of thought suppression, which assume that suppression is made more difficult by concurrent tasks or cognitive loads. Experiment 2 shows that chewing the gum affects the experience of “hearing” the music and cannot be ascribed to a general effect on thinking about a tune only in abstract terms. Experiment 3 confirms that the reduction of musical recollections by chewing gum is not the consequence of a general attentional or dual-task demand. The data support a link between articulatory motor programming and the appearance in consciousness of both voluntary and unwanted musical recollections.

Fashionline: CSR case of a U.K. fashion retailer

This paper presents findings from a corporate social responsibility (CSR) case-study of a UK fashion retailer informed through 22 multi-level internal and 5 external semi-structured interviews. Our research explores the relationship between various stakeholders and their perceptions of CSR issues. Sixteen themes emerge. We find disparity in CSR perceptions at different levels of organization and in views of consumers. Our recommendations are that the UK fashion retailer needs to – better understand normative purpose of CSR and in doing so balance social and environmental factors more equally; engage more widely at an early stage with broader stakeholders (global supply chain; consumers, employees, local populations, regulators, industry players); and better communicate (at different levels internally) along with integrate (external policy makers and with industry) design and implementation of CSR strategies. The authors conclude a gap remains for better CSR frameworks for the UK fashion retailer.

Soft balancing in the Americas: Latin American opposition to U.S. intervention, 1898–1936

In the aftermath of the 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, scholars of international relations debated how to best characterize the rising tide of global opposition. The concept of “soft balancing” emerged as an influential, though contested, explanation of a new phenomenon in a unipolar world: states seeking to constrain the ability of the United States to deploy military force by using multinational organizations, international law, and coalition building. Soft balancing can also be observed in regional unipolar systems. Multinational archival research reveals how Argentina, Mexico, and other Latin American countries responded to expanding U.S. power and military assertiveness in the early twentieth century through coordinated diplomatic maneuvering that provides a strong example of soft balancing. Examination of this earlier case makes an empirical contribution to the emerging soft-balancing literature and suggests that soft balancing need not lead to hard balancing or open conflict.

The Cold War and its aftermath in the Americas: the search for a synthetic interpretation of U.S. policy

More than two decades have passed since the fall of the Berlin Wall and the transfer of the Cold War file from a daily preoccupation of policy makers to a more detached assessment by historians. Scholars of U.S.-Latin American relations are beginning to take advantage both of the distance in time and of newly opened archives to reflect on the four decades that, from the 1940s to the 1980s, divided the Americas, as they did much of the world. Others are seeking to understand U.S. policy and inter-American relations in the post-Cold War era, a period that not only lacks a clear definition but also still has no name. Still others have turned their gaze forward to offer policies in regard to the region for the new Obama administration. Numerous books and review essays have addressed these three subjects—the Cold War, the post-Cold War era, and current and future issues on the inter-American agenda. Few of these studies attempt, however, to connect the three subjects or to offer new and comprehensive theories to explain the course of U.S. policies from the beginning of the twentieth century until the present. Indeed, some works and policy makers continue to use the mind-sets of the Cold War as though that conflict were still being fought. With the benefit of newly opened archives, some scholars have nevertheless drawn insights from the depths of the Cold War that improve our understanding of U.S. policies and inter-American relations, but they do not address the question as to whether the United States has escaped the longer cycle of intervention followed by neglect that has characterized its relations with Latin America. Another question is whether U.S. policies differ markedly before, during, and after the Cold War. In what follows, we ask whether the books reviewed here provide any insights in this regard and whether they offer a compass for the future of inter-American relations. We also offer our own thoughts as to how their various perspectives could be synthesized to address these questions more comprehensively.