Modeling in-Hospital Patient Survival During the First 28 Days After Intensive Care Unit Admission: a Prognostic Model for Clinical Trials in General Critically Ill Patients

OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study was to develop a model for estimating patient 28-day in-hospital mortality using 2 different statistical approaches. DESIGN: The study was designed to develop an outcome prediction model for 28-day in-hospital mortality using (a) logistic regression with random effects and (b) a multilevel Cox proportional hazards model. SETTING: The study involved 305 intensive care units (ICUs) from the basic Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) 3 cohort. PATIENTS AND PARTICIPANTS: Patients (n = 17138) were from the SAPS 3 database with follow-up data pertaining to the first 28 days in hospital after ICU admission. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: The database was divided randomly into 5 roughly equal-sized parts (at the ICU level). It was thus possible to run the model-building procedure 5 times, each time taking four fifths of the sample as a development set and the remaining fifth as the validation set. At 28 days after ICU admission, 19.98% of the patients were still in the hospital. Because of the different sampling space and outcome variables, both models presented a better fit in this sample than did the SAPS 3 admission score calibrated to vital status at hospital discharge, both on the general population and in major subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: Both statistical methods can be used to model the 28-day in-hospital mortality better than the SAPS 3 admission model. However, because the logistic regression approach is specifically designed to forecast 28-day mortality, and given the high uncertainty associated with the assumption of the proportionality of risks in the Cox model, the logistic regression approach proved to be superior.

DISTINCT CELLULAR MIGRATION INDUCED BY Leishmania infantum chagasi AND SALIVA FROM Lutzomyia longipalpis IN A HEMORRHAGIC POOL MODEL

Recruitment of a specific cell population after Leishmania infection can influence the outcome of the disease. Cellular migration in response to Leishmania or vector saliva has been reported in air pouch model, however, cellular migration induced by Leishmania associated with host's blood and vector saliva in this model has not been described. Herein we investigated cellular migration into air pouch of hamster after stimulation with combination of L. chagasi and host's blood and Lutzomyia longipalpis saliva. Migration induced by saliva was 3-fold more than those induced by L. chagasi alone. Additionally, L. chagasi associated with blood and saliva induced significantly even more leukocytes into air pouch than Leishmania alone. L. chagasi recruited a diverse cell population; however, most of these cells seem to have not migrated to the inflammatory exudate, remaining in the pouch lining tissue. These results indicate that L. chagasi can reduce leukocyte accumulation to the initial site of infection, and when associated with vector saliva in the presence of blood components, increase the influx of more neutrophils than macrophages, suggesting that the parasite has developed a strategy to minimize the initial inflammatory response, allowing an unlimited progression within the host. This work reinforces the importance of studies on the salivary components of sand fly vectors of leishmaniasis in the transmission process and the establishment of the infection.

DOSE RESPONSE EFFECT OF Paracoccidioides brasiliensis IN AN EXPERIMENTAL MODEL OF ARTHRITIS

Paracoccidioidomycosis (PCM) is caused by the dimorphic fungus Paracoccidioides brasiliensis (Pb) and corresponds to prevalent systemic mycosis in Latin America. The aim of the present work was to evaluate the dose response effect of the fungal yeast phase for the standardization of an experimental model of septic arthritis. The experiments were performed with groups of 14 rats that received doses of 103, 104 or 105 P. brasiliensis (Pb18) cells. The fungi were injected in 50 µL of phosphate-buffered saline (PBS) directly into the knee joints of the animals. The following parameters were analyzed in this work: the formation of swelling in knees infused with yeast cells and the radiological and anatomopathological alterations, besides antibody titer by ELISA. After 15 days of infection, signs of inflammation were evident. At 45 days, some features of damage and necrosis were observed in the articular cartilage. The systemic dissemination of the fungus was observed in 11% of the inoculated animals, and it was concluded that the experimental model is able to mimic articular PCM in humans and that the dose of 105 yeast cells can be used as standard in this model.

A crop-land allocation model: A case study in La Rioja, Spain

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

Balancing and lot-sizing mixed-model lines in the footwear industry

This report describes the full research proposal for the project \Balancing and lot-sizing mixed-model lines in the footwear industry", to be developed as part of the master program in Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores - Sistemas de Planeamento Industrial of the Instituto Superior de Engenharia do Porto. The Portuguese footwear industry is undergoing a period of great development and innovation. The numbers speak for themselves, Portugal footwear exported 71 million pairs of shoes to over 130 countries in 2012. It is a diverse sector, which covers different categories of women, men and children shoes, each of them with various models. New and technologically advanced mixed-model assembly lines are being projected and installed to replace traditional mass assembly lines. Obviously there is a need to manage them conveniently and to improve their operations. This work focuses on balancing and lot-sizing stitching mixed-model lines in a real world environment. For that purpose it will be fundamental to develop and evaluate adequate effective solution methods. Different objectives may be considered, which are relevant for the companies, such as minimizing the number of workstations, and minimizing the makespan, while taking into account a lot of practical restrictions. The solution approaches will be based on approximate methods, namely by resorting to metaheuristics. To show the impact of having different lots in production the initial maximum amount for each lot is changed and a Tabu Search based procedure is used to improve the solutions. The developed approaches will be evaluated and tested. A special attention will be given to the solution of real applied problems. Future work may include the study of other neighbourhood structures related to Tabu Search and the development of ways to speed up the evaluation of neighbours, as well as improving the balancing solution method.

Yeast as a model system to study genetic and post-translational regulation of metabolic pathways in mammals

Dissertation presented to obtain the Ph.D degree in Biology

Optimal Cut-Off Value for Homeostasis Model Assessment (HOMA) Index of Insulin-Resistance in a Population of Patients Admitted Electively in a Portuguese Cardiology Ward

INTRODUCTION: Insulin resistance is the pathophysiological key to explain metabolic syndrome. Although clearly useful, the Homeostasis Model Assessment index (an insulin resistance measurement) hasn't been systematically applied in clinical practice. One of the main reasons is the discrepancy in cut-off values reported in different populations. We sought to evaluate in a Portuguese population the ideal cut-off for Homeostasis Model Assessment index and assess its relationship with metabolic syndrome. MATERIAL AND METHODS: We selected a cohort of individuals admitted electively in a Cardiology ward with a BMI < 25 Kg/m2 and no abnormalities in glucose metabolism (fasting plasma glucose < 100 mg/dL and no diabetes). The 90th percentile of the Homeostasis Model Assessment index distribution was used to obtain the ideal cut-off for insulin resistance. We also selected a validation cohort of 300 individuals (no exclusion criteria applied). RESULTS: From 7 000 individuals, and after the exclusion criteria, there were left 1 784 individuals. The 90th percentile for Homeostasis Model Assessment index was 2.33. In the validation cohort, applying that cut-off, we have 49.3% of individuals with insulin resistance. However, only 69.9% of the metabolic syndrome patients had insulin resistance according to that cut-off. By ROC curve analysis, the ideal cut-off for metabolic syndrome is 2.41. Homeostasis Model Assessment index correlated with BMI (r = 0.371, p < 0.001) and is an independent predictor of the presence of metabolic syndrome (OR 19.4, 95% CI 6.6 - 57.2, p < 0.001). DISCUSSION: Our study showed that in a Portuguese population of patients admitted electively in a Cardiology ward, 2.33 is the Homeostasis Model Assessment index cut-off for insulin resistance and 2.41 for metabolic syndrome. CONCLUSION: Homeostasis Model Assessment index is directly correlated with BMI and is an independent predictor of metabolic syndrome.

Invasive Assessment of the Coronary Microcirculation Using the Index of Microcirculatory Resistance: Description and Validation of an Animal Model

INTRODUCTION: The index of microcirculatory resistance (IMR) enables/provides quantitative, invasive, and real-time assessment of coronary microcirculation status. AIMS: The primary aim of this study was to validate the assessment of IMR in a large animal model, and the secondary aim was to compare two doses of intracoronary papaverine, 5 and 10 mg, for induction of maximal hyperemia and its evolution over time. METHODS: Measurements of IMR were performed in eight pigs. Mean distal pressure (Pd) and mean transit time (Tmn) were measured at rest and at maximal hyperemia induced with intracoronary papaverine, 5 and 10 mg, and after 2, 5, 8 and 10 minutes. Disruption of the microcirculation was achieved by selective injection of 40-μm microspheres via a microcatheter in the left anterior descending artery. RESULTS: In each animal 14 IMR measurements were made. There were no differences between the two doses of papaverine regarding Pd response and IMR values - 11 ± 4.5 U with 5 mg and 10.6 ± 3 U with 10 mg (p=0.612). The evolution of IMR over time was also similar with the two doses, with significant differences from resting values disappearing after five minutes of intracoronary papaverine administration. IMR increased with disrupted microcirculation in all animals (41 ± 16 U, p=0.001). CONCLUSIONS: IMR provides invasive and real-time assessment of coronary microcirculation. Disruption of the microvascular bed is associated with a significant increase in IMR. A 5-mg dose of intracoronary papaverine is as effective as a 10-mg dose in inducing maximal hyperemia. After five minutes of papaverine administration there is no significant difference from resting hemodynamic status.