Some implications of a sample of practical Turing tests

A series of imitation games involving 3-participant (simultaneous comparison of two hidden entities) and 2-participant (direct interrogation of a hidden entity) were conducted at Bletchley Park on the 100th anniversary of Alan Turing’s birth: 23 June 2012. From the ongoing analysis of over 150 games involving (expert and non-expert, males and females, adults and child) judges, machines and hidden humans (foils for the machines), we present six particular conversations that took place between human judges and a hidden entity that produced unexpected results. From this sample we focus on features of Turing’s machine intelligence test that the mathematician/code breaker did not consider in his examination for machine thinking: the subjective nature of attributing intelligence to another mind.

Gut microbiome modulates the toxicity of hydrazine: a metabonomic study

The influence of gut microbiota on the toxicity and metabolism of hydrazine has been investigated in germ-free and ‘conventional’ Sprague Dawley rats using 1H NMR based metabonomic analysis of urine and plasma. Toxicity was more severe in germ-free rats compared with conventional rats for equivalent exposures indicating that bacterial presence altered the nature or extent of response to hydrazine and that the toxic response can vary markedly in the absence of a functional microbiome.

Cesium toxicity in Arabidopsis

Cesium (Cs) is chemically similar to potassium (K). However, although K is an essential element, Cs is toxic to plants. Two contrasting hypotheses to explain Cs toxicity have been proposed: (1) extracellular Cs+ prevents K+ uptake and, thereby, induces K starvation; and (2) intracellular Cs+ interacts with vital K+-binding sites in proteins, either competitively or noncompetitively, impairing their activities. We tested these hypotheses with Arabidopsis (Arabidopsis thaliana). Increasing the Cs concentration in the agar (Cs(agar)) on which Arabidopsis were grown reduced shoot growth. Increasing the K concentration in the agar (K(agad)) increased the Cs(agar) at which Cs toxicity was observed. However, although increasing Cs(agar) reduced shoot K concentration (K(shoot)), the decrease in shoot growth appeared unrelated to K(shoot) per se. Furthermore, the changes in gene expression in Cs-intoxicated plants differed from those of K-starved plants, suggesting that Cs intoxication was not perceived genetically solely as K starvation. In addition to reducing K(shoot) increasing Cs(agar) also increased shoot Cs concentration (Cs(shoot)), but shoot growth appeared unrelated to Cs(shoot) per se. The relationship between shoot growth and Cs(shoot)/Kt(shoot) suggested that, at a nontoxic Cs(shoot) growth was determined by K(shoot) but that the growth of Cs-intoxicated plants was related to the Cs(shoot)/K(shoot) quotient. This is consistent with Cs intoxication resulting from competition between K+ and Cs+ for K+-binding sites on essential proteins.

Forecast encompassing tests and probability forecasts

We consider tests of forecast encompassing for probability forecasts, for both quadratic and logarithmic scoring rules. We propose test statistics for the null of forecast encompassing, present the limiting distributions of the test statistics, and investigate the impact of estimating the forecasting models' parameters on these distributions. The small-sample performance is investigated, in terms of small numbers of forecasts and model estimation sample sizes. We show the usefulness of the tests for the evaluation of recession probability forecasts from logit models with different leading indicators as explanatory variables, and for evaluating survey-based probability forecasts.

On the transfer of prior tests or study events to subsequent study

Tests, as learning events, are often more effective than are additional study opportunities, especially when recall is tested after a long retention interval. To what degree, though, do prior test or study events support subsequent study activities? We set out to test an implication of Bjork and Bjork’s (1992) new theory of disuse—that, under some circumstances, prior study may facilitate subsequent study more than does prior testing. Participants learned English–Swahili translations and then underwent a practice phase during which some items were tested (without feedback) and other items were restudied. Although tested items were better recalled after a 1-week delay than were restudied items, this benefit did not persist after participants had the opportunity to study the items again via feedback. In fact, after this additional study opportunity, items that had been restudied earlier were better recalled than were items that had been tested earlier. These results suggest that measuring the memorial consequences of testing requires more than a single test of retention and, theoretically, a consideration of the differing status of initially recallable and nonrecallable items.