Why is the global warming proceeding much slower than expected?

Upper air observations from radiosondes and microwave satellite instruments does not indicate any global warming during the last 19 years, contrary to surface measurements, where a warming trend is supposedly being found. This result is somewhat difficult to reconcile, since climate model experiments do indicate a reverse trend, namely, that upper tropospheric air should warm faster than the surface. To contribute toward an understanding of this difficulty, we have here undertaken some specific experiments to study the effect on climate due to the decrease in stratospheric ozone and the Mount Pinatubo eruption in 1991. The associated forcing was added to the forcing from greenhouse gases, sulfate aerosols (direct and indirect effect), and tropospheric ozone, which was investigated in a separate series of experiments. Furthermore, we have undertaken an ensemble study in order to explore the natural variability of an advanced climate model exposed to such a forcing over 19 years. The result shows that the reduction of stratospheric ozone cools not only the lower stratosphere but also the troposphere, in particular, the upper and middle part. In the upper troposphere the cooling from stratospheric ozone leads to a significant reduction of greenhouse warming. The modeled stratospheric aerosols from Mount Pinatubo generate a climate response (stratospheric warming and tropospheric cooling) in good agreement with microwave satellite measurements. Finally, analysis of a series of experiments with both stratospheric ozone and the Mount Pinatubo effect shows considerable variability in climate response, suggesting that an evolution having no warming in the period is as likely as another evolution showing modest warming. However, the observed trend of no warming in the midtroposphere and clear warming at the surface is not found in the model simulations.

Transient climate change simulations with a coupled atmosphere–ocean GCM including the tropospheric sulfur cycle

The time-dependent climate response to changing concentrations of greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols is studied using a coupled general circulation model of the atmosphere and the ocean (ECHAM4/OPYC3). The concentrations of the well-mixed greenhouse gases like CO2, CH4, N2O, and CFCs are prescribed for the past (1860–1990) and projected into the future according to International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenario IS92a. In addition, the space–time distribution of tropospheric ozone is prescribed, and the tropospheric sulfur cycle is calculated within the coupled model using sulfur emissions of the past and projected into the future (IS92a). The radiative impact of the aerosols is considered via both the direct and the indirect (i.e., through cloud albedo) effect. It is shown that the simulated trend in sulfate deposition since the end of the last century is broadly consistent with ice core measurements, and the calculated radiative forcings from preindustrial to present time are within the uncertainty range estimated by IPCC. Three climate perturbation experiments are performed, applying different forcing mechanisms, and the results are compared with those obtained from a 300-yr unforced control experiment. As in previous experiments, the climate response is similar, but weaker, if aerosol effects are included in addition to greenhouse gases. One notable difference to previous experiments is that the strength of the Indian summer monsoon is not fundamentally affected by the inclusion of aerosol effects. Although the monsoon is damped compared to a greenhouse gas only experiment, it is still more vigorous than in the control experiment. This different behavior, compared to previous studies, is the result of the different land–sea distribution of aerosol forcing. Somewhat unexpected, the intensity of the global hydrological cycle becomes weaker in a warmer climate if both direct and indirect aerosol effects are included in addition to the greenhouse gases. This can be related to anomalous net radiative cooling of the earth’s surface through aerosols, which is balanced by reduced turbulent transfer of both sensible and latent heat from the surface to the atmosphere.

Anionic metabolic profiling of urine from antibiotic-treated rats by capillary electrophoresis–mass spectrometry

A recently developed capillary electrophoresis (CE)-negative-ionisation mass spectrometry (MS) method was used to profile anionic metabolites in a microbial-host co-metabolism study. Urine samples from rats receiving antibiotics (penicillin G and streptomycin sulfate) for 0, 4, or 8 days were analysed. A quality control sample was measured repeatedly to monitor the performance of the applied CE-MS method. After peak alignment, relative standard deviations (RSDs) for migration time of five representative compounds were below 0.4 %, whereas RSDs for peak area were 7.9–13.5 %. Using univariate and principal component analysis of obtained urinary metabolic profiles, groups of rats receiving different antibiotic treatment could be distinguished based on 17 discriminatory compounds, of which 15 were downregulated and 2 were upregulated upon treatment. Eleven compounds remained down- or upregulated after discontinuation of the antibiotics administration, whereas a recovery effect was observed for others. Based on accurate mass, nine compounds were putatively identified; these included the microbial-mammalian co-metabolites hippuric acid and indoxyl sulfate. Some discriminatory compounds were also observed by other analytical techniques, but CE-MS uniquely revealed ten metabolites modulated by antibiotic exposure, including aconitic acid and an oxocholic acid. This clearly demonstrates the added value of CE-MS for nontargeted profiling of small anionic metabolites in biological samples.

Microbial−mammalian cometabolites dominate the age-associated urinary metabolic phenotype in Taiwanese and American populations

Understanding the metabolic processes associated with aging is key to developing effective management and treatment strategies for age-related diseases. We investigated the metabolic profiles associated with age in a Taiwanese and an American population. 1H NMR spectral profiles were generated for urine specimens collected from the Taiwanese Social Environment and Biomarkers of Aging Study (SEBAS; n = 857; age 54–91 years) and the Mid-Life in the USA study (MIDUS II; n = 1148; age 35–86 years). Multivariate and univariate linear projection methods revealed some common age-related characteristics in urinary metabolite profiles in the American and Taiwanese populations, as well as some distinctive features. In both cases, two metabolites—4-cresyl sulfate (4CS) and phenylacetylglutamine (PAG)—were positively associated with age. In addition, creatine and β-hydroxy-β-methylbutyrate (HMB) were negatively correlated with age in both populations (p < 4 × 10–6). These age-associated gradients in creatine and HMB reflect decreasing muscle mass with age. The systematic increase in PAG and 4CS was confirmed using ultraperformance liquid chromatography–mass spectrometry (UPLC–MS). Both are products of concerted microbial–mammalian host cometabolism and indicate an age-related association with the balance of host–microbiome metabolism.