Risk management under a two-factor model of the term structure of interest rates

This paper presents several applications to interest rate risk managementbased on a two-factor continuous-time model of the term structure of interestrates previously presented in Moreno (1996). This model assumes that defaultfree discount bond prices are determined by the time to maturity and twofactors, the long-term interest rate and the spread (difference between thelong-term rate and the short-term (instantaneous) riskless rate). Several newmeasures of ``generalized duration" are presented and applied in differentsituations in order to manage market risk and yield curve risk. By means ofthese measures, we are able to compute the hedging ratios that allows us toimmunize a bond portfolio by means of options on bonds. Focusing on thehedging problem, it is shown that these new measures allow us to immunize abond portfolio against changes (parallel and/or in the slope) in the yieldcurve. Finally, a proposal of solution of the limitations of conventionalduration by means of these new measures is presented and illustratednumerically.

Auctions of licences and market structure

This paper studies sequential auctions of licences to operate in amarket where those firms that obtain at least one licence then engage ina symmetric market game. I employ a new refinement of Nash equilibrium,the concept of {\sl Markovian recursively undominated equilibrium}.The unique solution satisfies the following properties: (i) when severalfirms own licences before the auction (incumbents), new entrants buylicences in each stage, and (ii) when there is no more than one incumbent,either the single firm preempts entry altogether or entry occurs inevery stage, depending on the parameter configuration.

A scaled difference chi-square test statistic for moment structure analysis

A family of scaling corrections aimed to improve the chi-square approximation of goodness-of-fit test statistics in small samples, large models, and nonnormal data was proposed in Satorra and Bentler (1994). For structural equations models, Satorra-Bentler's (SB) scaling corrections are available in standard computer software. Often, however, the interest is not on the overall fit of a model, but on a test of the restrictions that a null model say ${\cal M}_0$ implies on a less restricted one ${\cal M}_1$. If $T_0$ and $T_1$ denote the goodness-of-fit test statistics associated to ${\cal M}_0$ and ${\cal M}_1$, respectively, then typically the difference $T_d = T_0 - T_1$ is used as a chi-square test statistic with degrees of freedom equal to the difference on the number of independent parameters estimated under the models ${\cal M}_0$ and ${\cal M}_1$. As in the case of the goodness-of-fit test, it is of interest to scale the statistic $T_d$ in order to improve its chi-square approximation in realistic, i.e., nonasymptotic and nonnormal, applications. In a recent paper, Satorra (1999) shows that the difference between two Satorra-Bentler scaled test statistics for overall model fit does not yield the correct SB scaled difference test statistic. Satorra developed an expression that permits scaling the difference test statistic, but his formula has some practical limitations, since it requires heavy computations that are notavailable in standard computer software. The purpose of the present paper is to provide an easy way to compute the scaled difference chi-square statistic from the scaled goodness-of-fit test statistics of models ${\cal M}_0$ and ${\cal M}_1$. A Monte Carlo study is provided to illustrate the performance of the competing statistics.

Nest structure and occurrence of three species of Azteca (Hymenoptera, Formicidae) in Cecropia pachystachya (Urticaceae) in non-floodable and floodable pantanal areas

Thirty Cecropia pachystachya trees were examined in non-floodable and floodable areas to investigate the association between C. pachystachya and Azteca ants in the Pantanal of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil. The species Azteca ovaticeps, Azteca isthmica, and Azteca alfari were found nesting inside domatia of C. pachystachya. A. ovaticeps was the most frequent species in the trees in the floodable area, while A. isthmica and A. alfari, in the non-floodable area. A. ovaticeps and A. isthmica maintained more entrance/exit holes in comparison to A. alfari. All Azteca species maintained entrance/exit holes in the closest domatia to the apical area of the branch, due to proximity to Müllerian and pearl bodies, suggesting that these species of Azteca were influenced by their environment during evolution and became specialized. All internodal septa of each examined branch were perforated by ants, indicating the branches were inhabited by a single colony.

Modulation of angiogenic and inflammatory response in glioblastoma by hypoxia.

Glioblastoma are rapidly proliferating brain tumors in which hypoxia is readily recognizable, as indicated by focal or extensive necrosis and vascular proliferation, two independent diagnostic criteria for glioblastoma. Gene expression profiling of glioblastoma revealed a gene expression signature associated with hypoxia-regulated genes. The correlated gene set emerging from unsupervised analysis comprised known hypoxia-inducible genes involved in angiogenesis and inflammation such as VEGF and BIRC3, respectively. The relationship between hypoxia-modulated angiogenic genes and inflammatory genes was associated with outcome in our cohort of glioblastoma patients treated within prospective clinical trials of combined chemoradiotherapy. The hypoxia regulation of several new genes comprised in this cluster including ZNF395, TNFAIP3, and TREM1 was experimentally confirmed in glioma cell lines and primary monocytes exposed to hypoxia in vitro. Interestingly, the cluster seems to characterize differential response of tumor cells, stromal cells and the macrophage/microglia compartment to hypoxic conditions. Most genes classically associated with the inflammatory compartment are part of the NF-kappaB signaling pathway including TNFAIP3 and BIRC3 that have been shown to be involved in resistance to chemotherapy.Our results associate hypoxia-driven tumor response with inflammation in glioblastoma, hence underlining the importance of tumor-host interaction involving the inflammatory compartment.

A two-mean reverting-factor model of the term structure of interest rates

This paper presents a two--factor model of the term structure ofinterest rates. We assume that default free discount bond prices aredetermined by the time to maturity and two factors, the long--term interestrate and the spread (difference between the long--term rate and theshort--term (instantaneous) riskless rate). Assuming that both factorsfollow a joint Ornstein--Uhlenbeck process, a general bond pricing equationis derived. We obtain a closed--form expression for bond prices andexamine its implications for the term structure of interest rates. We alsoderive a closed--form solution for interest rate derivatives prices. Thisexpression is applied to price European options on discount bonds andmore complex types of options. Finally, empirical evidence of the model'sperformance is presented.