Multicointegration, polynomial cointegration and I(2) cointegration with structural breaks. An application to the sustainability of the US external deficit

In this paper we model the multicointegration relation, allowing for one structural break. Since multicointegration is a particular case of polynomial or I(2) cointegration, our proposal can also be applied in these cases. The paper proposes the use of a residualbased Dickey-Fuller class of statistic that accounts for one known or unknown structural break. Finite sample performance of the proposed statistic is investigated by using Monte Carlo simulations, which reveals that the statistic shows good properties in terms of empirical size and power. We complete the study with an empirical application of the sustainability of the US external deficit. Contrary to existing evidence, the consideration of one structural break leads to conclude in favour of the sustainability of the US external deficit.

Another Look at the Null of Stationary Real Exchange Rates: Panel Data with Structural Breaks and Cross-section Dependence

This paper re-examines the null of stationary of real exchange rate for a panel of seventeen OECD developed countries during the post-Bretton Woods era. Our analysis simultaneously considers both the presence of cross-section dependence and multiple structural breaks that have not received much attention in previous panel methods of long-run PPP. Empirical results indicate that there is little evidence in favor of PPP hypothesis when the analysis does not account for structural breaks. This conclusion is reversed when structural breaks are considered in computation of the panel statistics. We also compute point estimates of half-life separately for idiosyncratic and common factor components and find that it is always below one year.