Economic crises in England, 1270-1520: a statistical approach

The chapter examines how far medieval economic crises can be identified by analysing the residuals from a simultaneous equation model of the medieval English economy. High inflation, falls in gross domestic product and large intermittent changes in wage rates are all considered as potential indicators of crisis. Potential causal factors include bad harvests, wars and political instability. The chapter suggests that crises arose when a combination of different problems overwhelmed the capacity of government to address them. It may therefore be a mistake to look for a single cause of any crisis. The coincidence of separate problems is a more plausible explanation of many crises.

Statistical characterisation of the growth and spatial scales of the substorm onset arc

We present the first multi-event study of the spatial and temporal structuring of the aurora to provide statistical evidence of the near-Earth plasma instability which causes the substorm onset arc. Using data from ground-based auroral imagers, we study repeatable signatures of along-arc auroral beads, which are thought to represent the ionospheric projection of magnetospheric instability in the near-Earth plasma sheet. We show that the growth and spatial scales of these wave-like fluctuations are similar across multiple events, indicating that each sudden auroral brightening has a common explanation. We find statistically that growth rates for auroral beads peak at low wavenumber with the most unstable spatial scales mapping to an azimuthal wavelength λ≈1700 − 2500 km in the equatorial magnetosphere at around 9-12 RE. We compare growth rates and spatial scales with a range of theoretical predictions of magnetotail instabilities, including the cross-field current instability and the shear-flow ballooning instability. We conclude that, although the cross-field current instability can generate similar magnitude of growth rates, the range of unstable wavenumbers indicates that the shear-flow ballooning instability is the most likely explanation for our observations.

On the ability of statistical wind-wave models to capture the variability and long-term trends of the North Atlantic winter wave climate

A dynamical wind-wave climate simulation covering the North Atlantic Ocean and spanning the whole 21st century under the A1B scenario has been compared with a set of statistical projections using atmospheric variables or large scale climate indices as predictors. As a first step, the performance of all statistical models has been evaluated for the present-day climate; namely they have been compared with a dynamical wind-wave hindcast in terms of winter Significant Wave Height (SWH) trends and variance as well as with altimetry data. For the projections, it has been found that statistical models that use wind speed as independent variable predictor are able to capture a larger fraction of the winter SWH inter-annual variability (68% on average) and of the long term changes projected by the dynamical simulation. Conversely, regression models using climate indices, sea level pressure and/or pressure gradient as predictors, account for a smaller SWH variance (from 2.8% to 33%) and do not reproduce the dynamically projected long term trends over the North Atlantic. Investigating the wind-sea and swell components separately, we have found that the combination of two regression models, one for wind-sea waves and another one for the swell component, can improve significantly the wave field projections obtained from single regression models over the North Atlantic.

Thermodynamic and statistical analysis of soybean oil extraction process using renewable solvent

The main goal of this work was to evaluate thermodynamic parameters of the soybean oil extraction process using ethanol as solvent. The experimental treatments were as follows: aqueous solvents with water contents varying from 0 to 13% (mass basis) and extraction temperature varying from 50 to 100 degrees C. The distribution coefficients of oil at equilibrium have been used to calculate enthalpy, entropy and free energy changes. The results indicate that oil extraction process with ethanol is feasible and spontaneous, mainly under higher temperature. Also, the influence of water level in the solvent and temperature were analysed using the response surface methodology (RSM). It can be noted that the extraction yield was highly affected by both independent variables. A joint analysis of thermodynamic and RSM indicates the optimal level of solvent hydration and temperature to perform the extraction process.

On phantom thermodynamics

The thermodynamic properties of dark energy fluids described by an equation of state parameter omega = p/rho are rediscussed in the context of FRW type geometries. Contrarily to previous claims, it is argued here that the phantom regime omega < -1 is not physically possible since that both the temperature and the entropy of every physical fluids must be always positive definite. This means that one cannot appeal to negative temperature in order to save the phantom dark energy hypothesis as has been recently done in the literature. Such a result remains true as long as the chemical potential is zero. However, if the phantom fluid is endowed with a non-null chemical potential, the phantom field hypothesis becomes thermodynamically consistent, that is, there are macroscopic equilibrium states with T > 0 and S > 0 in the course of the Universe expansion. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Statistical analysis of proficiency testing results under elliptical distributions

The use of inter-laboratory test comparisons to determine the performance of individual laboratories for specific tests (or for calibration) [ISO/IEC Guide 43-1, 1997. Proficiency testing by interlaboratory comparisons - Part 1: Development and operation of proficiency testing schemes] is called Proficiency Testing (PT). In this paper we propose the use of the generalized likelihood ratio test to compare the performance of the group of laboratories for specific tests relative to the assigned value and illustrate the procedure considering an actual data from the PT program in the area of volume. The proposed test extends the test criteria in use allowing to test for the consistency of the group of laboratories. Moreover, the class of elliptical distributions are considered for the obtained measurements. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A statistical evaluation of the field emission for copper oxide nanostructures

A statistical data analysis methodology was developed to evaluate the field emission properties of many samples of copper oxide nanostructured field emitters. This analysis was largely done in terms of Seppen-Katamuki (SK) charts, field strength and emission current. Some physical and mathematical models were derived to describe the effect of small electric field perturbations in the Fowler-Nordheim (F-N) equation, and then to explain the trend of the data represented in the SK charts. The field enhancement factor and the emission area parameters showed to be very sensitive to variations in the electric field for most of the samples. We have found that the anode-cathode distance is critical in the field emission characterization of samples having a non-rigid nanostructure. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Statistical treatment of misalignments in particle accelerators

To know how much misalignment is tolerable for a particle accelerator is an important input for the design of these machines. In particle accelerators the beam must be guided and focused using bending magnets and magnetic lenses, respectively. The alignment of the lenses along a transport line aims to ensure that the beam passes through their optical axes and represents a critical point in the assembly of the machine. There are more and more accelerators in the world, many of which are very small machines. Because the existing literature and programs are mostly targeted for large machines. in this work we describe a method suitable for small machines. This method consists in determining statistically the alignment tolerance in a set of lenses. Differently from the methods used in standard simulation codes for particle accelerators, the statistical method we propose makes it possible to evaluate particle losses as a function of the alignment accuracy of the optical elements in a transport line. Results for 100 key electrons, on the 3.5-m long conforming beam stage of the IFUSP Microtron are presented as an example of use. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Statistical analysis of the Doppler broadening coincidence spectrum of electron-positron annihilation radiation in silicon

We report a statistical analysis of Doppler broadening coincidence data of electron-positron annihilation radiation in silicon using a (22)Na source. The Doppler broadening coincidence spectrum was fit using a model function that included positron annihilation at rest with 1s, 2s, 2p, and valence band electrons. In-flight positron annihilation was also fit. The response functions of the detectors accounted for backscattering, combinations of Compton effects, pileup, ballistic deficit, and pulse-shaping problems. The procedure allows the quantitative determination of positron annihilation with core and valence electron intensities as well as their standard deviations directly from the experimental spectrum. The results obtained for the core and valence band electron annihilation intensities were 2.56(9)% and 97.44(9)%, respectively. These intensities are consistent with published experimental data treated by conventional analysis methods. This new procedure has the advantage of allowing one to distinguish additional effects from those associated with the detection system response function. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Numerical analysis of an incremented statistical sampling procedure in MCNP

MCNP has stood so far as one of the main Monte Carlo radiation transport codes. Its use, as any other Monte Carlo based code, has increased as computers perform calculations faster and become more affordable along time. However, the use of Monte Carlo method to tally events in volumes which represent a small fraction of the whole system may turn to be unfeasible, if a straight analogue transport procedure (no use of variance reduction techniques) is employed and precise results are demanded. Calculations of reaction rates in activation foils placed in critical systems turn to be one of the mentioned cases. The present work takes advantage of the fixed source representation from MCNP to perform the above mentioned task in a more effective sampling way (characterizing neutron population in the vicinity of the tallying region and using it in a geometric reduced coupled simulation). An extended analysis of source dependent parameters is studied in order to understand their influence on simulation performance and on validity of results. Although discrepant results have been observed for small enveloping regions, the procedure presents itself as very efficient, giving adequate and precise results in shorter times than the standard analogue procedure. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.