Valuing Expansions of the Electricity Transmission Network under Uncertainty: The Binodal Case

Transmission investments are currently needed to meet an increasing electricity demand, to address security of supply concerns, and to reach carbon-emissions targets. A key issue when assessing the benefits from an expanded grid concerns the valuation of the uncertain cash flows that result from the expansion. We propose a valuation model that accommodates both physical and economic uncertainties following the Real Options approach. It combines optimization techniques with Monte Carlo simulation. We illustrate the use of our model in a simplified, two-node grid and assess the decision whether to invest or not in a particular upgrade. The generation mix includes coal-and natural gas-fired stations that operate under carbon constraints. The underlying parameters are estimated from observed market data.

The Economics of Gasification: A Market-Based Approach

This paper deals with the economics of gasification facilities in general and IGCC power plants in particular. Regarding the prospects of these systems, passing the technological test is one thing, passing the economic test can be quite another. In this respect, traditional valuations assume constant input and/or output prices. Since this is hardly realistic, we allow for uncertainty in prices. We naturally look at the markets where many of the products involved are regularly traded. Futures markets on commodities are particularly useful for valuing uncertain future cash flows. Thus, revenues and variable costs can be assessed by means of sound financial concepts and actual market data. On the other hand, these complex systems provide a number of flexibility options (e.g., to choose among several inputs, outputs, modes of operation, etc.). Typically, flexibility contributes significantly to the overall value of real assets. Indeed, maximization of the asset value requires the optimal exercise of any flexibility option available. Yet the economic value of flexibility is elusive, the more so under (price) uncertainty. And the right choice of input fuels and/or output products is a main concern for the facility managers. As a particular application, we deal with the valuation of input flexibility. We follow the Real Options approach. In addition to economic variables, we also address technical and environmental issues such as energy efficiency, utility performance characteristics and emissions (note that carbon constraints are looming). Lastly, a brief introduction to some stochastic processes suitable for valuation purposes is provided.

Hybrid Qm/Mm Simulation Of The Hydration Phenomena Of Dipalmitoylphosphatidylcholine Headgroup

The polar headgroup of dipalmitoylphosphatidylcholine (DPPC) molecule both in gas phase and aqueous Solution is investigated by the hybrid quantum mechanical/molecular mechanical (QM/MM) method, in which the polar head of DPPC molecule and the bound water molecules are treated with density functional theory (DFT), while the apolar hydrocarbon chain of DPPC molecule is treated with MM method. It is demonstrated that the hybrid QM/MM method is both accurate and efficient to describe the conformations of DPPC headgroup. Folded structures of headgroup are found in gas phase calculations. In this work, both monohydration and polyhydration phenomena are investigated. In monohydration, different water association sites are studied. Both the hydration energy and the quantum properties of DPPC and water molecules are calculated at the DFT level of theory after geometry optimization. The binding force of monohydration is estimated by using the scan method. In polyhydration, more extended conformations are found and hydration energies in different polyhydration styles are estimated. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

2,4-dimethylene-1,3-cyclobutanediyl and 2,4-dimethylenebicyclobutane. Synthesis, spectroscopy, and reactivity of a triplet biradical and its covalent isomer

The preparation and direct observation of triplet 2,4-dimethylene-1,3- cyclobutanediyl (1), the non-Kekule isomer of benzene, is described. The biradical was generated by photolysis of 5,6-dimethylene-2,3- diazabicyclo[2.1.1]hex-2-ene (2) (which was synthesized in several steps from benzvalene) under cryogenic, matrix-isolation conditions. Biradical 1 was characterized by EPR spectroscopy (‌‌‌‌‌│D/hc│ =0.0204 cm^(-1), │E/hc│ =0.0028 cm^(-1)) and found to have a triplet ground state. The Δm_s= 2 transition displays hyperfine splitting attributed to a 7.3-G coupling to the ring methine and a 5.9-G coupling to the exocyclic methylene protons. Several experiments, including application of the magnetophotoselection (mps) technique in the generation of biradical 1, have allowed a determination of the zero-field triplet sublevels as x = -0.0040, y = +0.0136, and z = -0.0096 cm^(-1), where x and y are respectively the long and short in-plane axes and z the out-of-plane axis of 1.

Triplet 1 is yellow-orange and displays highly structured absorption (λ_(max)= 506 nm) and fluorescence (λ_(max) = 510 nm) spectra, with vibronic spacings of 1520 and 620 cm^(-1) for absorption and 1570 and 620 cm^(-1) for emission. The spectra were unequivocally assigned to triplet 1 by the use of a novel technique that takes advantage of the biradical's photolability. The absorption є = 7200 M^(-1) cm^(-1) and f = 0.022, establishing that the transition is spin-allowed. Further use of the mps technique has demonstrated that the transition is x-polarized, and the excited state 1s therefore of B_(1g) symmetry, in accord with theoretical predictions.

Thermolysis or direct photolysis of diazene 2 in fluid solution produces 2,4- dimethylenebicyclo[l.l.0]butane (3), whose ^(l)H NMR spectrum (-80°C, CD_(2)Cl_(2)) consists of singlets at δ 4.22 and 3.18 in a 2:1 ratio. Compound 3 is thermally unstable and dimerizes with second-order kinetics between -80 and -25°C (∆H^(‡) = 6.8 kcal mol^(-1), (∆s^(‡) = -28 eu) by a mechanism involving direct combination of two molecules of 3 in the rate-determining step. This singlet-manifold reaction ultimately produces a mixture of two dimers, 3,8,9- trimethylenetricyclo[5.1.1.0^(2,5)]non-4-ene (75) and trans-3,10-dimethylenetricyclo[6.2.0.0^(2,5)]deca-4,8-diene (76t), with the former predominating. In contrast, triplet-sensitized photolysis of 2, which leads to triplet 1, provides, in addition to 75 and 76t, a substantial amount of trans-5,10- dimethylenetricyclo[6.2.0.0^(3,6)]deca-3,8-diene (77t) and small amounts of two unidentified dimers.

In addition, triplet biradical 1 ring-closes to 3 in rigid media both thermally (77-140 K) and photochemically. In solution 3 forms triplet 1 upon energy transfer from sensitizers having relatively low triplet energies. The implications of the thermal chemistry for the energy surfaces of the system are discussed.

Detailed properties of high redshift galaxies

Galaxies evolve throughout the history of the universe from the first star-forming sources, through gas-rich asymmetric structures with rapid star formation rates, to the massive symmetrical stellar systems observed at the present day. Determining the physical processes which drive galaxy formation and evolution is one of the most important questions in observational astrophysics. This thesis presents four projects aimed at improving our understanding of galaxy evolution from detailed measurements of star forming galaxies at high redshift.

We use resolved spectroscopy of gravitationally lensed z ≃ 2 - 3 star forming galaxies to measure their kinematic and star formation properties. The combination of lensing with adaptive optics yields physical resolution of ≃ 100 pc, sufficient to resolve giant Hii regions. We find that ~ 70 % of galaxies in our sample display ordered rotation with high local velocity dispersion indicating turbulent thick disks. The rotating galaxies are gravitationally unstable and are expected to fragment into giant clumps. The size and dynamical mass of giant Hii regions are in agreement with predictions for such clumps indicating that gravitational instability drives the rapid star formation. The remainder of our sample is comprised of ongoing major mergers. Merging galaxies display similar star formation rate, morphology, and local velocity dispersion as isolated sources, but their velocity fields are more chaotic with no coherent rotation.

We measure resolved metallicity in four lensed galaxies at z = 2.0 − 2.4 from optical emission line diagnostics. Three rotating galaxies display radial gradients with higher metallicity at smaller radii, while the fourth is undergoing a merger and has an inverted gradient with lower metallicity at the center. Strong gradients in the rotating galaxies indicate that they are growing inside-out with star formation fueled by accretion of metal-poor gas at large radii. By comparing measured gradients with an appropriate comparison sample at z = 0, we demonstrate that metallicity gradients in isolated galaxies must flatten at later times. The amount of size growth inferred by the gradients is in rough agreement with direct measurements of massive galaxies. We develop a chemical evolution model to interpret these data and conclude that metallicity gradients are established by a gradient in the outflow mass loading factor, combined with radial inflow of metal-enriched gas.

We present the first rest-frame optical spectroscopic survey of a large sample of low-luminosity galaxies at high redshift (L < L*, 1.5 < z < 3.5). This population dominates the star formation density of the universe at high redshifts, yet such galaxies are normally too faint to be studied spectroscopically. We take advantage of strong gravitational lensing magnification to compile observations for a sample of 29 galaxies using modest integration times with the Keck and Palomar telescopes. Balmer emission lines confirm that the sample has a median SFR ∼ 10 M_sun yr^−1 and extends to lower SFR than has been probed by other surveys at similar redshift. We derive the metallicity, dust extinction, SFR, ionization parameter, and dynamical mass from the spectroscopic data, providing the first accurate characterization of the star-forming environment in low-luminosity galaxies at high redshift. For the first time, we directly test the proposal that the relation between galaxy stellar mass, star formation rate, and gas phase metallicity does not evolve. We find lower gas phase metallicity in the high redshift galaxies than in local sources with equivalent stellar mass and star formation rate, arguing against a time-invariant relation. While our result is preliminary and may be biased by measurement errors, this represents an important first measurement that will be further constrained by ongoing analysis of the full data set and by future observations.

We present a study of composite rest-frame ultraviolet spectra of Lyman break galaxies at z = 4 and discuss implications for the distribution of neutral outflowing gas in the circumgalactic medium. In general we find similar spectroscopic trends to those found at z = 3 by earlier surveys. In particular, absorption lines which trace neutral gas are weaker in less evolved galaxies with lower stellar masses, smaller radii, lower luminosity, less dust, and stronger Lyα emission. Typical galaxies are thus expected to have stronger Lyα emission and weaker low-ionization absorption at earlier times, and we indeed find somewhat weaker low-ionization absorption at higher redshifts. In conjunction with earlier results, we argue that the reduced low-ionization absorption is likely caused by lower covering fraction and/or velocity range of outflowing neutral gas at earlier epochs. This result has important implications for the hypothesis that early galaxies were responsible for cosmic reionization. We additionally show that fine structure emission lines are sensitive to the spatial extent of neutral gas, and demonstrate that neutral gas is concentrated at smaller galactocentric radii in higher redshift galaxies.

The results of this thesis present a coherent picture of galaxy evolution at high redshifts 2 ≲ z ≲ 4. Roughly 1/3 of massive star forming galaxies at this period are undergoing major mergers, while the rest are growing inside-out with star formation occurring in gravitationally unstable thick disks. Star formation, stellar mass, and metallicity are limited by outflows which create a circumgalactic medium of metal-enriched material. We conclude by describing some remaining open questions and prospects for improving our understanding of galaxy evolution with future observations of gravitationally lensed galaxies.

The diagnostics of density distribution for inhomogeneous dense DT plasmas using fast protons

The density distribution of inhomogeneous dense deuterium-tritium plasmas in laser fusion is revealed by the energy loss of fast protons going through the plasma. In our simulation of a plasma density diagnostics, the fast protons used for the diagnostics may be generated in the laser-plasma interaction. Dividing a two-dimensional area into grids and knowing the initial and final energies of the protons, we can obtain a large linear and ill-posed equation set. for the densities of all grids, which is solved with the Tikhonov regularization method. We find that the accuracy of the set plan with four proton sources is better than those of the set plans with less than four proton sources. Also we have done the density reconstruction especially. for four proton sources with and without assuming circularly symmetrical density distribution, and find that the accuracy is better for the reconstruction assuming circular symmetry. The error is about 9% when no noise is added to the final energy for the reconstruction of four proton sources assuming circular symmetry. The accuracies for different random noises to final proton energies with four proton sources are also calculated.