CO2 emissions and economic activity: heterogeneity across countries and non stationary series

This paper explores the homogeneity of the functional form, the parameters, and the turning point, when appropriate, of the relationship between CO2 emissions and economic activity for 31 countries (28 OECD, Brazil, China, and India) during the period 1950 to 2006 using cointegration analysis. With a sample highly overlapped over time between countries, the result reveals that the homogeneity across countries is rejected, both in functional form and in the parameters of long term relationship. This confirms the relevance of considering the heterogeneity in exploring the relationship between air pollution and economic activity to avoid spurious parameter estimates and infer a wrong behavior of the functional form, which could lead to induce that the relationship is reversed when in fact it is direct.

Policy evaluation and uncertainty about the effects of oil prices on economic activity

This paper addresses the issue of policy evaluation in a context in which policymakers are uncertain about the effects of oil prices on economic performance. I consider models of the economy inspired by Solow (1980), Blanchard and Gali (2007), Kim and Loungani (1992) and Hamilton (1983, 2005), which incorporate different assumptions on the channels through which oil prices have an impact on economic activity. I first study the characteristics of the model space and I analyze the likelihood of the different specifications. I show that the existence of plausible alternative representations of the economy forces the policymaker to face the problem of model uncertainty. Then, I use the Bayesian approach proposed by Brock, Durlauf and West (2003, 2007) and the minimax approach developed by Hansen and Sargent (2008) to integrate this form of uncertainty into policy evaluation. I find that, in the environment under analysis, the standard Taylor rule is outperformed under a number of criteria by alternative simple rules in which policymakers introduce persistence in the policy instrument and respond to changes in the real price of oil.

A comparison of the inhibitory activity of selective PDE4 inhibitors on eosinophil recruitment in guinea pig skin

The elevation of intracellular cyclic AMP by phosphodiesterase (PDE)4 inhibitors in eosinophils is associated with inhibition of the activation and recruitment of these cells. We have previously shown that systemic treatment with the PDE4 inhibitor rolipram effectively inhibt eosinophil migration in guinea pig skin. In the present study we compare the oral potency and efficacy of the PDE4 inhibitors rolipram, RP 73401 and CDP 840 on allergic and PAF-induced eosinophil recruitment. Rolipram and RP 73401 were equally effective and potent when given by the oral route and much more active than the PDE4 inhibitor CDP 840. We suggest that this guinea pig model of allergic and mediator-induced eosinophil recruitment is both a sensitive and simple tool to test the efficacy and potency of PDE4 inhibitors in vivo.