Philippe Ariès ja lapsuuden historia

Kirjoitus perustuu "Philippe Ariès ja mentaliteettien historia" -seminaarissa pidettyyn esitelmään

Are niche-based species distribution models transferable in space?

Aim To assess the geographical transferability of niche-based species distribution models fitted with two modelling techniques. Location Two distinct geographical study areas in Switzerland and Austria, in the subalpine and alpine belts. Methods Generalized linear and generalized additive models (GLM and GAM) with a binomial probability distribution and a logit link were fitted for 54 plant species, based on topoclimatic predictor variables. These models were then evaluated quantitatively and used for spatially explicit predictions within (internal evaluation and prediction) and between (external evaluation and prediction) the two regions. Comparisons of evaluations and spatial predictions between regions and models were conducted in order to test if species and methods meet the criteria of full transferability. By full transferability, we mean that: (1) the internal evaluation of models fitted in region A and B must be similar; (2) a model fitted in region A must at least retain a comparable external evaluation when projected into region B, and vice-versa; and (3) internal and external spatial predictions have to match within both regions. Results The measures of model fit are, on average, 24% higher for GAMs than for GLMs in both regions. However, the differences between internal and external evaluations (AUC coefficient) are also higher for GAMs than for GLMs (a difference of 30% for models fitted in Switzerland and 54% for models fitted in Austria). Transferability, as measured with the AUC evaluation, fails for 68% of the species in Switzerland and 55% in Austria for GLMs (respectively for 67% and 53% of the species for GAMs). For both GAMs and GLMs, the agreement between internal and external predictions is rather weak on average (Kulczynski's coefficient in the range 0.3-0.4), but varies widely among individual species. The dominant pattern is an asymmetrical transferability between the two study regions (a mean decrease of 20% for the AUC coefficient when the models are transferred from Switzerland and 13% when they are transferred from Austria). Main conclusions The large inter-specific variability observed among the 54 study species underlines the need to consider more than a few species to test properly the transferability of species distribution models. The pronounced asymmetry in transferability between the two study regions may be due to peculiarities of these regions, such as differences in the ranges of environmental predictors or the varied impact of land-use history, or to species-specific reasons like differential phenotypic plasticity, existence of ecotypes or varied dependence on biotic interactions that are not properly incorporated into niche-based models. The lower variation between internal and external evaluation of GLMs compared to GAMs further suggests that overfitting may reduce transferability. Overall, a limited geographical transferability calls for caution when projecting niche-based models for assessing the fate of species in future environments.

Risk factor profile and management of cerebrovascular patients in the REACH Registry.

BACKGROUND: Cerebrovascular disease (CVD) is a global public health problem. CVD patients are at high risk of recurrent stroke and other atherothrombotic events. Prevalence of risk factors, comorbidities, utilization of secondary prevention therapies and adherence to guidelines all influence the recurrent event rate. We assessed these factors in 18,992 CVD patients within a worldwide registry of stable outpatients. METHODS: The Reduction of Atherothrombosis for Continued Health Registry recruited >68,000 outpatients (44 countries). The subjects were mainly recruited by general practitioners (44%) and internists (29%) if they had symptomatic CVD, coronary artery disease, peripheral arterial disease (PAD) and/or >or=3 atherothrombotic risk factors. RESULTS: The 18,992 CVD patients suffered a stroke (53.7%), transient ischemic attack (TIA) (27.7%) or both (18.5%); 40% had symptomatic atherothrombotic disease in >or=1 additional vascular beds: 36% coronary artery disease; 10% PAD and 6% both. The prevalence of risk factors at baseline was higher in the TIA subgroup than in the stroke group: treated hypertension (83.5/82.0%; p = 0.02), body mass index >or=30 (26.7/20.8%; p < 0.0001), hypercholesterolemia (65.1/52.1%; p < 0.0001), atrial fibrillation (14.7/11.9%; p < 0.0001) and carotid artery disease (42.3/29.7%; p < 0.0001). CVD patients received antiplatelet agents (81.7%), oral anticoagulants (17.3%), lipid-lowering agents (61.2%) and antihypertensives (87.9%), but guideline treatment targets were frequently not achieved (54.5% had elevated blood pressure at baseline, while 4.5% had untreated diabetes). CONCLUSIONS: A high percentage of CVD patients have additional atherothrombotic disease manifestations. The risk profile puts CVD patients, especially the TIA subgroup, at high risk for future atherothrombotic events. Undertreatment is common worldwide and adherence to guidelines needs to be enforced.

Implantación de microcogeneración en el equipamiento municipal : "Centro de Historia de Zaragoza"

A raíz de la evolución del precio de la energía y de las medidas adoptadas a nivel mundial para el llamado “desarrollo sostenible”, la legislación europea ha liderado las correcciones a efectuar en los procesos protagonistas del consumo de recursos y de contaminación del medio ambiente. En la última década el proceso viene acelerándose para cumplir con los objetivos marcados, amparándose en unas ya consolidadas estadísticas sobre las repercusiones prácticas de cada una de las iniciativas proyectadas. Una de las tecnologías a emplear es la cogeneración, es decir, la producción simultánea de calor y electricidad. A diferencia de otras soluciones más ambiciosas, y por tanto con mayor incertidumbre en su aplicación práctica, la cogeneración es una respuesta ya madura y viable, directamente aplicable a industrias y con un claro apoyo institucional. El objetivo principal de este trabajo es demostrar mediante un estudio técnico – económico, la viabilidad de la solución planteada en este tipo de edificios, mediante la aportación de datos reales y contrastados. Así como establecer los parámetros e indicadores de medición que permitan elegir dicha tecnología como la solución óptima para el ahorro y eficiencia económica en su sector de aplicación. Entre las conclusiones más destacadas de este proyecto están los beneficios que aporta tanto al usuario del sistema como al conjunto de la sociedad, siendo este último aspecto fundamental en su financiación y subvención. Por otra parte, son instalaciones desconocidas en ciertos edificios por lo que este trabajo debe contribuir a su desarrollo y adopción por parte de las empresas de servicios energéticos.

El Palatí : la formació dels Palaus Imperials a Roma

El Palatí. La formació dels palaus imperials a Roma neix d’un projecte iniciat el 1988 amb l’excavació arqueològica de la zona situada al voltant del temple de Júpiter Stator, als peus del Palatí, un dels turons més emblemàtics de Roma. Aquest treball de camp va durar gairebé 18 anys i, durant tot aquest temps, Ricardo Mar va portar a terme una recerca molt àmplia sobre la topografia arqueològica del Palatí. El resultat d’aquest treball és aquesta obra, que descriu l’evolució del turó, des de l’època de la Roma primitiva fins a la darreria de la República, i entra després en el que constitueix el cos fonamental del llibre: el naixement, la formació i l’evolució dels palaus imperials de Roma a partir del moment en què August va decidir situar-hi casa seva. L’obra, de 355 pàgines, inclou, a més, tres annexos: el primer, del mateix Ricardo Mar, amb les dades de l’excavació. Un segon, de Natàlia Alonso, amb l’anàlisi de sediments de les clavegueres aparegudes durant l’excavació. I, finalment, un tercer, d’Ana Rodríguez, amb l’estudi de la presència de la família Fragipane al Palatí durant l’edat mitjana. Les conclusions de l’estudi apareixen traduïdes a l’anglès. A banda, s’inclou una carpeta amb 12 plànols DIN-A2 en color amb la planimetria dels palaus imperials al Palatí en diferents períodes.

At-risk drinking and drug use among patients seeking care in an emergency department.

OBJECTIVE: This study reports the frequency of alcohol use and associated tobacco and drug use among emergency department (ED) patients, in order to increase physician awareness and treatment of women and men seeking care in ED settings. METHOD: All adults seen in the ED at the University Hospital in Lausanne, Switzerland, between 11 AM and 11 PM were screened by direct interview for at-risk drinking, tobacco use, drug use, and depression during an 18-month period. RESULTS: A total of 8,599 patients (4,006 women and 4,593 men) participated in the screening procedure and provided full data on the variables in our analysis. The mean age was 51.9 years for women and 45.0 years for men; 57.5% (n = 2,304) of women and 58.5% (n = 2,688) of men were being treated for trauma. Based on guidelines of the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism, 13.1% (n = 523) of the women were at-risk drinkers, 57.3% (n = 2,301) were low-risk drinkers, and 29.6% (n = 1,182) were abstinent. Among men, 32.8% (n = 1,507) met criteria for at-risk drinking, 51.8% (n = 2,380) met criteria for low-risk drinking, and 15.4% (n = 706) were abstinent. Younger individuals (ages 18-30) had significantly higher rates of episodic heavy drinking episodes, whereas at-risk older patients were more likely to drink on a daily basis. A binary model found that women and men who drank at at-risk levels are more likely to use tobacco (odds ratio [OR] = 2.48, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.0-3.08) and illicit drugs (OR = 5.91, CI: 3.32- 10.54) compared with abstinent and low-risk drinkers. CONCLUSIONS: This study supports systematic alcohol screening of women and men seen in EDs and suggests that patterns of alcohol and drug use vary by age and gender.

1.° Francisci Maurolyci demonstrationes in duodecimum librum Euclidis elementorum. — 2.° Ejusdem modus fabricandi astrolabium, cum demonstrationibus geometricis. — 3.° Ejusdem opusculum de fabrica et usu quadrati horarii, ad omnem horisontem accommodati. — 4.° Collectanea ex fabula et historia antiqua.

Colbertinus