Panel index VAR models: Specification, Estimation, Testing and Leading Indicators

This paper proposes a method to conduct inference in panel VAR models with cross unit interdependencies and time variations in the coefficients. The approach can be used to obtain multi-unit forecasts and leading indicators and to conduct policy analysis in a multiunit setups. The framework of analysis is Bayesian and MCMC methods are used to estimate the posterior distribution of the features of interest. The model is reparametrized to resemble an observable index model and specification searches are discussed. As an example, we construct leading indicators for inflation and GDP growth in the Euro area using G-7 information.

Communication, Coordination, and Efficiency in Evolutionary One-population Models

We analyze the role of commitment in pre-play communication for ensuring efficient evolutionarily stable outcomes in coordination games. All players are a priori identical as they are drawn from the same population. In games where efficient outcomes can be reached by players coordinating on the same action we find commitment to be necessary to enforce efficiency. In games where efficienct outcomes only result from play of different actions, communication without commitment is most effective although efficiency can no longer be guaranteed. Only when there are many messages then inefficient outcomes are negligible as their basins of attraction become very small.

Business Cycles, Unemployment Insurance, and the Calibration of Matching Models

This paper points out an empirical puzzle that arises when an RBC economy with a job matching function is used to model unemployment. The standard model can generate sufficiently large cyclical fluctuations in unemployment, or a sufficiently small response of unemployment to labor market policies, but it cannot do both. Variable search and separation, finite UI benefit duration, efficiency wages, and capital all fail to resolve this puzzle. However, both sticky wages and match-specific productivity shocks help the model reproduce the stylized facts: both make the firm's flow of surplus more procyclical, thus making hiring more procyclical too.

TECTONICS OF THE HELVETIC NAPPE SYSTEM (W SWITZERLAND): CONTROL OF STRAIN LOCALIZATION AND BASEMENT-COVER DEFORMATION. Insights from models based on continuum mechanics

The Helvetic nappe system in Western Switzerland is a stack of fold nappes and thrust sheets em-placed at low grade metamorphism. Fold nappes and thrust sheets are also some of the most common features in orogens. Fold nappes are kilometer scaled recumbent folds which feature a weakly deformed normal limb and an intensely deformed overturned limb. Thrust sheets on the other hand are characterized by the absence of overturned limb and can be defined as almost rigid blocks of crust that are displaced sub-horizontally over up to several tens of kilometers. The Morcles and Doldenhom nappe are classic examples of fold nappes and constitute the so-called infra-Helvetic complex in Western and Central Switzerland, respectively. This complex is overridden by thrust sheets such as the Diablerets and Wildhörn nappes in Western Switzerland. One of the most famous example of thrust sheets worldwide is the Glariis thrust sheet in Central Switzerland which features over 35 kilometers of thrusting which are accommodated by a ~1 m thick shear zone. Since the works of the early Alpine geologist such as Heim and Lugeon, the knowledge of these nappes has been steadily refined and today the geometry and kinematics of the Helvetic nappe system is generally agreed upon. However, despite the extensive knowledge we have today of the kinematics of fold nappes and thrust sheets, the mechanical process leading to the emplacement of these nappe is still poorly understood. For a long time geologist were facing the so-called 'mechanical paradox' which arises from the fact that a block of rock several kilometers high and tens of kilometers long (i.e. nappe) would break internally rather than start moving on a low angle plane. Several solutions were proposed to solve this apparent paradox. Certainly the most successful is the theory of critical wedges (e.g. Chappie 1978; Dahlen, 1984). In this theory the orogen is considered as a whole and this change of scale allows thrust sheet like structures to form while being consistent with mechanics. However this theoiy is intricately linked to brittle rheology and fold nappes, which are inherently ductile structures, cannot be created in these models. When considering the problem of nappe emplacement from the perspective of ductile rheology the problem of strain localization arises. The aim of this thesis was to develop and apply models based on continuum mechanics and integrating heat transfer to understand the emplacement of nappes. Models were solved either analytically or numerically. In the first two papers of this thesis we derived a simple model which describes channel flow in a homogeneous material with temperature dependent viscosity. We applied this model to the Morcles fold nappe and to several kilometer-scale shear zones worldwide. In the last paper we zoomed out and studied the tectonics of (i) ductile and (ii) visco-elasto-plastic and temperature dependent wedges. In this last paper we focused on the relationship between basement and cover deformation. We demonstrated that during the compression of a ductile passive margin both fold nappes and thrust sheets can develop and that these apparently different structures constitute two end-members of a single structure (i.e. nappe). The transition from fold nappe to thrust sheet is to first order controlled by the deformation of the basement. -- Le système des nappes helvétiques en Suisse occidentale est un empilement de nappes de plis et de nappes de charriage qui se sont mis en place à faible grade métamorphique. Les nappes de plis et les nappes de charriage sont parmi les objets géologiques les plus communs dans les orogènes. Les nappes de plis sont des plis couchés d'échelle kilométrique caractérisés par un flanc normal faiblement défor-mé, au contraire de leur flanc inverse, intensément déformé. Les nappes de charriage, à l'inverse se caractérisent par l'absence d'un flanc inverse bien défini. Elles peuvent être définies comme des blocs de croûte terrestre qui se déplacent de manière presque rigide qui sont déplacés sub-horizontalement jusqu'à plusieurs dizaines de kilomètres. La nappe de Mordes et la nappe du Doldenhorn sont des exemples classiques de nappes de plis et constitue le complexe infra-helvétique en Suisse occidentale et centrale, respectivement. Ce complexe repose sous des nappes de charriages telles les nappes des Diablerets et du Widlhörn en Suisse occidentale. La nappe du Glariis en Suisse centrale se distingue par un déplacement de plus de 35 kilomètres qui s'est effectué à la faveur d'une zone de cisaillement basale épaisse de seulement 1 mètre. Aujourd'hui la géométrie et la cinématique des nappes alpines fait l'objet d'un consensus général. Malgré cela, les processus mécaniques par lesquels ces nappes se sont mises en place restent mal compris. Pendant toute la première moitié du vingtième siècle les géologues les géologues ont été confrontés au «paradoxe mécanique». Celui-ci survient du fait qu'un bloc de roche haut de plusieurs kilomètres et long de plusieurs dizaines de kilomètres (i.e., une nappe) se fracturera de l'intérieur plutôt que de se déplacer sur une surface frictionnelle. Plusieurs solutions ont été proposées pour contourner cet apparent paradoxe. La solution la plus populaire est la théorie des prismes d'accrétion critiques (par exemple Chappie, 1978 ; Dahlen, 1984). Dans le cadre de cette théorie l'orogène est considéré dans son ensemble et ce simple changement d'échelle solutionne le paradoxe mécanique (la fracturation interne de l'orogène correspond aux nappes). Cette théorie est étroitement lié à la rhéologie cassante et par conséquent des nappes de plis ne peuvent pas créer au sein d'un prisme critique. Le but de cette thèse était de développer et d'appliquer des modèles basés sur la théorie de la méca-nique des milieux continus et sur les transferts de chaleur pour comprendre l'emplacement des nappes. Ces modèles ont été solutionnés de manière analytique ou numérique. Dans les deux premiers articles présentés dans ce mémoire nous avons dérivé un modèle d'écoulement dans un chenal d'un matériel homogène dont la viscosité dépend de la température. Nous avons appliqué ce modèle à la nappe de Mordes et à plusieurs zone de cisaillement d'échelle kilométrique provenant de différents orogènes a travers le monde. Dans le dernier article nous avons considéré le problème à l'échelle de l'orogène et avons étudié la tectonique de prismes (i) ductiles, et (ii) visco-élasto-plastiques en considérant les transferts de chaleur. Nous avons démontré que durant la compression d'une marge passive ductile, a la fois des nappes de plis et des nappes de charriages peuvent se développer. Nous avons aussi démontré que nappes de plis et de charriages sont deux cas extrêmes d'une même structure (i.e. nappe) La transition entre le développement d'une nappe de pli ou d'une nappe de charriage est contrôlé au premier ordre par la déformation du socle. -- Le système des nappes helvétiques en Suisse occidentale est un emblement de nappes de plis et de nappes de chaînage qui se sont mis en place à faible grade métamoiphique. Les nappes de plis et les nappes de charriage sont parmi les objets géologiques les plus communs dans les orogènes. Les nappes de plis sont des plis couchés d'échelle kilométrique caractérisés par un flanc normal faiblement déformé, au contraire de leur flanc inverse, intensément déformé. Les nappes de charriage, à l'inverse se caractérisent par l'absence d'un flanc inverse bien défini. Elles peuvent être définies comme des blocs de croûte terrestre qui se déplacent de manière presque rigide qui sont déplacés sub-horizontalement jusqu'à plusieurs dizaines de kilomètres. La nappe de Morcles and la nappe du Doldenhorn sont des exemples classiques de nappes de plis et constitue le complexe infra-helvétique en Suisse occidentale et centrale, respectivement. Ce complexe repose sous des nappes de charriages telles les nappes des Diablerets et du Widlhörn en Suisse occidentale. La nappe du Glarüs en Suisse centrale est certainement l'exemple de nappe de charriage le plus célèbre au monde. Elle se distingue par un déplacement de plus de 35 kilomètres qui s'est effectué à la faveur d'une zone de cisaillement basale épaisse de seulement 1 mètre. La géométrie et la cinématique des nappes alpines fait l'objet d'un consensus général parmi les géologues. Au contraire les processus physiques par lesquels ces nappes sont mises en place reste mal compris. Les sédiments qui forment les nappes alpines se sont déposés à l'ère secondaire et à l'ère tertiaire sur le socle de la marge européenne qui a été étiré durant l'ouverture de l'océan Téthys. Lors de la fermeture de la Téthys, qui donnera naissance aux Alpes, le socle et les sédiments de la marge européenne ont été déformés pour former les nappes alpines. Le but de cette thèse était de développer et d'appliquer des modèles basés sur la théorie de la mécanique des milieux continus et sur les transferts de chaleur pour comprendre l'emplacement des nappes. Ces modèles ont été solutionnés de manière analytique ou numérique. Dans les deux premiers articles présentés dans ce mémoire nous nous sommes intéressés à la localisation de la déformation à l'échelle d'une nappe. Nous avons appliqué le modèle développé à la nappe de Morcles et à plusieurs zones de cisaillement provenant de différents orogènes à travers le monde. Dans le dernier article nous avons étudié la relation entre la déformation du socle et la défonnation des sédiments. Nous avons démontré que nappe de plis et nappes de charriages constituent les cas extrêmes d'un continuum. La transition entre nappe de pli et nappe de charriage est intrinsèquement lié à la déformation du socle sur lequel les sédiments reposent.

Incorporating waiting time in competitive location models: formulations and heuristics

In this paper we propose a metaheuristic to solve a new version of the Maximum Capture Problem. In the original MCP, market capture is obtained by lower traveling distances or lower traveling time, in this new version not only the traveling time but also the waiting time will affect the market share. This problem is hard to solve using standard optimization techniques. Metaheuristics are shown to offer accurate results within acceptable computing times.

Instrumental and ethical aspects of experimental research with animal models

Experimental animal models offer possibilities of physiology knowledge, pathogenesis of disease and action of drugs that are directly related to quality nursing care. This integrative review describes the current state of the instrumental and ethical aspects of experimental research with animal models, including the main recommendations of ethics committees that focus on animal welfare and raises questions about the impact of their findings in nursing care. Data show that, in Brazil, the progress in ethics for the use of animals for scientific purposes was consolidated with Law No. 11.794/2008 establishing ethical procedures, attending health, genetic and experimental parameters. The application of ethics in handling of animals for scientific and educational purposes and obtaining consistent and quality data brings unquestionable contributions to the nurse, as they offer subsidies to relate pathophysiological mechanisms and the clinical aspect on the patient.

Manifestações Patológicas em Empreendimentos Habitacionais de Baixa Renda Executados em Alvenaria Estrutural: Uma Análise da Relação de Causa e Efeito

A alvenaria estrutural vem ganhando um grande impulso no Brasil ao longo das últimas décadas, sendo cada vez mais utilizada, principalmente em empreendimentos habitacionais de interesse social. No caso específico do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul, nos últimos dois anos, a maioria dos empreendimentos habitacionais de baixa renda foram executados com esse processo construtivo. Por exigência dos órgãos financiadores destes tipos de empreendimentos, as empresas construtoras dos mesmos devem ser possuidoras de certificação do seu sistema de gestão da qualidade. Entretanto, apesar desta certificação, tem-se observado a presença de manifestações patológicas, com predominância de fissuras, nos empreendimentos de baixa renda, por elas executadas. As causas das manifestações patológicas em empreendimentos construídos em alvenaria estrutural têm sido objeto de estudo de diversas pesquisas. Porém, não se fez até então um estudo das possíveis causas destas manifestações do ponto de vista multicausal, envolvendo as várias etapas do processo construtivo. Neste sentido, a presente pesquisa teve como objetivo principal analisar as relações de causa e efeito entre as fissuras dos empreendimentos construídos em alvenaria estrutural e as suas causas, utilizando-se de ferramentas de melhorias da qualidade que adotam uma visão multi-casual, muito utilizadas em outras indústrias. Para este estudo foram utilizados relatórios de monitoramento de execução de empreendimentos que pertencem aos modos de provisão habitacional do Programa de Arrendamento Residencial (PAR) e Imóvel na Planta (IP), no Estado do Rio Grande do Sul, ambos gerenciados pela Caixa Econômica Federal. A pesquisa consistiu em: (a) revisão bibliográfica; (b) levantamento e análise dos dados provenientes dos relatórios, identificando falhas, recomendações técnicas e boas práticas adotadas pelas empresas construtoras; (c) aplicação de um método de análise de relações de causa e efeito composto por ferramentas da qualidade; e (d) geração de mapas de relações de causa e efeito, recomendações para tratamento das principais causas e listagem de algumas boas práticas construtivas. Através desta pesquisa foi possível verificar as principais falhas ao longo do processo construtivo em vários níveis de análise e analisar as relações de causa e efeito entre eles e propor uma priorização de melhorias da qualidade. Com base nesta priorização foi sistematizado um conjunto de recomendações técnicas e de boas práticas que podem ser disseminadas entre as empresas construtoras tendo em vista a melhoria da qualidade dos empreendimentos em estudo.

A Comparison of the Management Models of Protected Areas between China and the Southern African Region

A Comparison of the Management Models of Protected Areas between China and the African South Region allows reading and evaluating the similarities and differences in the use of management model as a management tool for protected areas in China and South African Region. Specifically, some positive and negative features of the management approaches for the two regions. Secondary data was collected from various related literature such as policy documents, students‟ dissertations/thesis, scientific articles and magazines. Based on the method above, the study found out that China's first nature reserve was the Dingus Mountain Nature Reserve in Zhaoqing, Guangdong province established in 1956. By the end of 2005, about 2,349 nature reserves of various kinds were set up throughout the country, covering a total area of 149.95 million ha and accounting for 15 percent of the total land territory. The study further found that Southern Africa has approximately 4,390 protected areas out of 11487920 total land areas and Eastern Africa has approximately 1838144 protected areas, which is equivalent to 15.0% of the total land areas. South Africa in this region had its first declared natural park in 1926 after Paul Kruger (a war hero) had alerted the authorities of the extinguishing threat of some animal species of region.

Study of parental models: building an instrument for their exploration

Objective: This research presents the construction of an attributional questionnaire concerning the different parental models and factors that are involved in family interactions. Method: A mixed methodology was used as a foundation to develop items and respective pilots that allowed checking the validity and internal consistency of the instrument using expert judgment. Results: An instrument of 36 statements was organized into 12 categories to explore the parental models according to the following factors: parental models, breeding patterns, attachment bonds and guidelines for success, and promoted inside family contexts. Analyzing these factors contributes to the children’s development within the familiar frown, and the opportunity for socio-educational intervention. Conclusion: It is assumed that the family context is as decisive as the school context; therefore, exploring the nature of parental models is required to understand the features and influences that contribute to the development of young people in any social context.