Red-shifts and red herrings in geographical ecology

I draw attention to the need for ecologists to take spatial structure into account more seriously in hypothesis testing. If spatial autocorrelation is ignored, as it usually is, then analyses of ecological patterns in terms of environmental factors can produce very misleading results. This is demonstrated using synthetic but realistic spatial patterns with known spatial properties which are subjected to classical correlation and multiple regression analyses. Correlation between an autocorrelated response variable and each of a set of explanatory variables is strongly biased in favour of those explanatory variables that are highly autocorrelated - the expected magnitude of the correlation coefficient increases with autocorrelation even if the spatial patterns are completely independent. Similarly, multiple regression analysis finds highly autocorrelated explanatory variables "significant" much more frequently than it should. The chances of mistakenly identifying a "significant" slope across an autocorrelated pattern is very high if classical regression is used. Consequently, under these circumstances strongly autocorrelated environmental factors reported in the literature as associated with ecological patterns may not actually be significant. It is likely that these factors wrongly described as important constitute a red-shifted subset of the set of potential explanations, and that more spatially discontinuous factors (those with bluer spectra) are actually relatively more important than their present status suggests. There is much that ecologists can do to improve on this situation. I discuss various approaches to the problem of spatial autocorrelation from the literature and present a randomisation test for the association of two spatial patterns which has advantages over currently available methods.

Recombinant canine distemper virus strain Snyder Hill expressing green or red fluorescent proteins causes meningoencephalitis in the ferret

The propensity of canine distemper virus (CDV) to spread to the central nervous system is one of the primary features of distemper. Therefore, we developed a reverse genetics system based on the neurovirulent Snyder Hill (SH) strain of CDV (CDV(SH)) and show that this virus rapidly circumvents the blood-brain and blood-cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) barriers to spread into the subarachnoid space to induce dramatic viral meningoencephalitis. The use of recombinant CDV(SH) (rCDV(SH)) expressing enhanced green fluorescent protein (EGFP) or red fluorescent protein (dTomato) facilitated the sensitive pathological assessment of routes of virus spread in vivo. Infection of ferrets with these viruses led to the full spectrum of clinical signs typically associated with distemper in dogs during a rapid, fatal disease course of approximately 2 weeks. Comparison with the ferret-adapted CDV(5804P) and the prototypic wild-type CDV(R252) showed that hematogenous infection of the choroid plexus is not a significant route of virus spread into the CSF. Instead, viral spread into the subarachnoid space in rCDV(SH)-infected animals was triggered by infection of vascular endothelial cells and the hematogenous spread of virus-infected leukocytes from meningeal blood vessels into the subarachnoid space. This resulted in widespread infection of cells of the pia and arachnoid mater of the leptomeninges over large areas of the cerebral hemispheres. The ability to sensitively assess the in vivo spread of a neurovirulent strain of CDV provides a novel model system to study the mechanisms of virus spread into the CSF and the pathogenesis of acute viral meningitis.

Lead contamination and associated disease in captive and reintroduced red kites Milvus milvus in England

Since 1989, a red kite Milvus milvus reintroduction programme has been underway in the United Kingdom, with 4-6 week old nestlings brought into captivity and held for 6-8 weeks before reintroduction. As scavengers, red kites may consume unretrieved game, and ingest shot or lead (Pb) fragments in their prey's flesh. We evaluated exposure to Pb in captive and wild red kites by taking blood samples from 125 captive young red kites prior to release, through analysing 264 pellets (regurgitated by wild birds) collected from under a roost site, and analysing Pb concentrations in livers and/or bones of 87 red kites found dead between 1995 and 2003. Lead isotope analyses of livers were also conducted in an effort to identify Pb exposure routes. Forty-six (36.8%) kites sampled prior to release had elevated blood Pb concentrations (201-3340 microg l(-1)). The source of this Pb was probably small fragments of lead ammunition in the carcasses of birds or mammals either fed to the nestlings by their parents or, more likely, subsequently whilst in captivity. Once released, kites were also exposed to lead shot in their food, and a minimum of 1.5-2.3% of regurgitated pellets contained Pb gunshot. Seven of 44 red kites found dead or that were captured sick and died within a few days had elevated (>6 mg kg(-1) dry weight [d.w.]) liver Pb concentrations, and six of these (14%) had concentrations of >15 mg kg(-1) d.w., compatible with fatal Pb poisoning. Post-mortem analyses indicated that two of these birds had died of other causes (poisoning by rodenticide and a banned agricultural pesticide); the remaining four (9%) probably died of Pb poisoning. Bone samples from 86 red kites showed a skewed distribution of Pb concentration, and 18 samples (21%) had Pb concentrations >20 mg kg(-1) d.w., indicating elevated exposure to Pb at some stage in the birds' life. Lead isotopic signatures (Pb (208/206); Pb (206/207)) in liver samples of the majority of kites were compatible with those found in lead shot extracted from regurgitated pellets. Lead isotope ratios found in the livers of kites with very low Pb concentrations were distinct from UK petrol Pb isotopic signatures, indicating that birds were exposed to little residual petrol Pb. We conclude that the primary source of Pb to which red kites are exposed is lead ammunition (shotgun pellets or rifle bullets), or fragments thereof, in their food sources; in some cases exposure appears sufficient to be fatal. We make recommendations to reduce Pb poisoning in both captive and wild red kites and other scavenging species.

Levels and patterns of population genetic diversity in the red seaweed Chondrus crispus (Florideophyceae): a direct comparison of single nucleotide polymorphisms and microsatellites

Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are predicted to supersede microsatellites as the marker of choice for population genetic studies in the near future. To date, however, very few studies have directly compared both marker systems in natural populations, particularly in non-model organisms. In the present study, we compared the utility of SNPs and microsatellites for population genetic analysis of the red seaweed Chondrus crispus (Florideophyceae). Six SNP loci yielded very different patterns of intrapopulation genetic diversity compared to those obtained using seven moderately (mean 5.2 alleles) polymorphic microsatellite loci, although Bayesian clustering analysis gave largely congruent results between the two marker classes. A weak but significant pattern of isolation-by-distance was observed across scales from a few hundred metres to approximately 200?km using the combined SNP and microsatellite data set of 13 loci. Over larger scales, however, there was little correlation between genetic divergence and geographical distance. Our findings suggest that even a moderate number of SNPs is sufficient to determine patterns of genetic diversity across natural populations, and also highlight the fact that patterns of genetic variation in seaweeds arise through a complex interplay of short- and long-term natural processes, as well as anthropogenic influence.