Willingness-to-pay for a probabilistic flood forecast: a risk-based decision-making game

Probabilistic hydro-meteorological forecasts have over the last decades been used more frequently to communicate forecastuncertainty. This uncertainty is twofold, as it constitutes both an added value and a challenge for the forecaster and the user of the forecasts. Many authors have demonstrated the added (economic) value of probabilistic over deterministic forecasts across the water sector (e.g. flood protection, hydroelectric power management and navigation). However, the richness of the information is also a source of challenges for operational uses, due partially to the difficulty to transform the probability of occurrence of an event into a binary decision. This paper presents the results of a risk-based decision-making game on the topic of flood protection mitigation, called “How much are you prepared to pay for a forecast?”. The game was played at several workshops in 2015, which were attended by operational forecasters and academics working in the field of hydrometeorology. The aim of this game was to better understand the role of probabilistic forecasts in decision-making processes and their perceived value by decision-makers. Based on the participants’ willingness-to-pay for a forecast, the results of the game show that the value (or the usefulness) of a forecast depends on several factors, including the way users perceive the quality of their forecasts and link it to the perception of their own performances as decision-makers.

Microstructure and Mineral Composition of Dental Enamel of Permanent and Deciduous Teeth

Purpose: This study evaluated and compared in vitro the microstructure and mineral composition of permanent and deciduous teeth`s dental enamel. Methods: Sound third molars (n = 12) and second primary molars (n = 12) were selected and randomly assigned to the following groups, according to the analysis method performed (n = 4): Scanning electron microscopy (SEM), X-Ray diffraction (XRD) and Energy dispersive X-ray spectrometer (EDS). Qualitative and quantitative comparisons of the dental enamel were done. The microscopic findings were analyzed statistically by a nonparametric test (Kruskal-Wallis). The measurements of the prisms number and thickness were done in SEM photomicrographs. The relative amounts of calcium (Ca) and phosphorus (P) were determined by EDS investigation. Chemical phases present in both types of teeth were observed by the XRD analysis. Results: The mean thickness measurements observed in the deciduous teeth enamel was 1.14 mm and in the permanent teeth enamel was 2.58 mm. The mean rod head diameter in deciduous teeth was statistically similar to that of permanent teeth enamel, and a slightly decrease from the outer enamel surface to the region next to the enamel-dentine junction was assessed. The numerical density of enamel rods was higher in the deciduous teeth, mainly near EDJ, that showed statistically significant difference. The percentage of Ca and P was higher in the permanent teeth enamel. Conclusions: The primary enamel structure showed a lower level of Ca and P, thinner thickness and higher numerical density of rods. Microsc. Res. Tech. 73:572-577, 2010. (C) 2009 Wiley-Liss. Inc.

Influence of body composition on bone mass in postmenopausal osteoporotic women

We aimed at evaluating the relationship of lean and fat mass to bone mass in osteoporotic postmenopausal women. We invited 65 women who were being treated at the Sao Paulo Hospital osteoporosis outpatients` clinic to participate. Body composition and bone mineral density (BMD) measurements were performed using Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry methodology (DXA). The mean age and weight were 69.7 +/- 6.4 years and 56.3 +/- 7.6 kg, respectively. Accordingly to the body mass index (BMI), 52.8% were of normal weight and 47.1% of the patients were overweight. Overweight women had significantly higher bone mass. Similarly, skeletal muscle index (SMI) showed a positive effect on BMD measurements and women with sarcopenia had significantly lower BMD measurements in total femur and femoral neck. In multiple regression analysis only lean mass and age, after adjustments to fat mass and BMI, were able to predict total body bone mineral content (BMC) (R(2) = 28%). Also lean mass adjusted to age and BMI were able to predict femoral neck BMD (R(2) = 14%). On the other hand, none of the components of the body composition (lean mass or fat mass) contributed significantly to explaining total femur BMD and neither body composition measurements were associated with spine BMD. These findings suggest that lean mass has a relevant role in BMC and BMD measurements. In addition, lower BMI and lean mass loss (sarcopenia) is associated to lower BMC and BMD of femoral neck and total femur and possible higher risk of osteoporotic fracture. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fatty acid composition of intramuscular fat from Nellore steers fed dry or high moisture corn and calcium salts of fatty acids

The purpose of this work was to evaluate the fatty acid composition of the Longissimus muscle from carcasses of Nellore steers fed diets with calcium salts of fatty acids (CSFA) and high moisture corn. Forty eight steers were fed during 70 days four diets containing dry corn (DC), high moisture corn (HM). dry corn plus CSFA (DC-CSFA) or high moisture corn plus CSFA (HM-CSFA). Fatty acid composition of the Longissimus muscle was determined by gas chromatography. Corn type had no effect on the ether extract percentage and in the content of the majority of the fatty acids, although steers fed HMC showed higher levels of polyunsaturated fatty acids and polyunsaturated/saturated ratio. Feeding CSFA increased ether extract percentage but had no effect on total of saturated, unsaturated and saturated: unsaturated ratio. Both high moisture corn and calcium salts of fatty acids increased CIA (cis9, trans11) and total CIA concentrations in intramuscular fat (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of natural weathering on microstructure and mineral composition of cementitious roofing tiles reinforced with fique fibre

The objective of the present work was to evaluate the effects of 14 years of weathering exposition on the microstructure and mineral composition of cementitious roofing tiles, still in service, reinforced with fique fibres (Furcrae gender). The results show that tiles under weathering exposition presented higher water absorption and apparent void volume than tiles under laboratory exposition. The continuous hydration of cement and natural carbonation filled the smaller pores but contrarily the large pores remained in the porous fibre to matrix interface in the samples exposed to weathering. On the other hand, their microstructure presented lower air permeability than samples aged in the internal environment of the laboratory. Besides, in the weathering aged tiles takes place a more intensive hydration process as it was identified greater amount of hydrated phases than in the laboratory aged specimens. The present results contribute to understanding the consequences of tropical weathering on the fibre-cement degradation. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

COMPOSITION OF SUPERCRITICAL CARBON DIOXIDE EXTRACTS OF PITANGA (EUGENIA UNIFLORA L.) LEAVES

The leaves of the Pitanga bush (Eugenia uniflora L.) are considered to be effective against many diseases. Extracts from Pitanga leaves have been found to show pronounced anti-inflammatory action and to have antimicrobial and antifungal activities, among other properties. In this work, extracts from Pitanga leaves were obtained by hydrodistillation and by extraction with supercritical carbon dioxide (SC-CO(2)) at three conditions of temperature and pressure. In the SC-CO(2) extractions also were collected the components that are lost with the CO(2) in the exit of the system using Porapak-Q polymer trap. All extracts were analyzed by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS). Thirty-nine compounds were found in the extracts and twenty-six were identified. The main components identified in the extracts in decreasing quantitative order were: curzerene, germacrene B, C(15)H(20)O(2) and beta-elemene for hydrodistillation; C(15)H(20)O(2) and curzerene for SC-CO(2) extracts and 3-hexen-1-ol, curzerene, C(15)H(20)O(2), beta-elemene and germacrene B for SC-CO(2) extracts captured in Porapak-Q. PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS The natural extracts are a potential source of compounds possessing biological activities. They can be used in foods, pharmaceutics and cosmetics. Pitanga is an exotic fruit from Brazil and extracts from its leaves have been used against many diseases in Brazilian folk medicine. Supercritical extraction is an interesting process for the production of natural extracts because it is a clean process and the knowledge of composition of extracts is crucial for the identification of the probable active components.

Influence of Viral Infection on Essential Oil Composition of Ocimum basilicum (Lamiaceae)

Ocimum basilicum L., popularly known as sweet basil, is a Lamiaceae species whose essential oil is mainly composed of monoterpenes, sesquiterpenes and phenylpropanoids. The contents of these compounds can be affected by abiotic and biotic factors such as infections caused by viruses. The main goal of this research was an investigation of the effects of viral infection on the essential oil profile of common basil. Seeds of O. basilicum L. cv. Genovese were sowed and kept in a greenhouse. Plants presenting two pairs of leaves above the cotyledons were inoculated with an unidentified virus isolated from a field plant showing chlorotic yellow spots and foliar deformation. Essential oils of healthy and infected plants were extracted by hydrodistillation and analyzed by GCMS. Changes in essential oil composition due to viral infection were observed. Methyleugenol and p-cresol,2,6-di-tert-butyl were the main constituents. However, methyleugenol contents were significantly decreased in infected plants.