Forging the synergy between anticipation and innovation : the futures action model

This paper presents the theory and practice of the Futures Action Model (FAM). FAM has been in development for over a decade, in a number of contexts and iterations. It is a creative methodology that uses a variety of concepts and tools to guide participants through the conception and modeling of enterprises, services, social innovations and projects in the context of emerging futures. It is used to generate strategic options that people can utilise to build opportunities for value creation as they move into the future. This paper details examples in its development, and provides theoretical and practical guidelines for educators and business facilitators to use the FAM system in their own workplaces.

Existence of travelling wave solutions for a model of tumour invasion

The existence of travelling wave solutions to a haptotaxis dominated model is analysed. A version of this model has been derived in Perumpanani et al. (1999) to describe tumour invasion, where diffusion is neglected as it is assumed to play only a small role in the cell migration. By instead allowing diffusion to be small, we reformulate the model as a singular perturbation problem, which can then be analysed using geometric singular perturbation theory. We prove the existence of three types of physically realistic travelling wave solutions in the case of small diffusion. These solutions reduce to the no diffusion solutions in the singular limit as diffusion as is taken to zero. A fourth travelling wave solution is also shown to exist, but that is physically unrealistic as it has a component with negative cell population. The numerical stability, in particular the wavespeed of the travelling wave solutions is also discussed.

A geometric construction of travelling wave solutions to the Keller–Segel model

We study a version of the Keller–Segel model for bacterial chemotaxis, for which exact travelling wave solutions are explicitly known in the zero attractant diffusion limit. Using geometric singular perturbation theory, we construct travelling wave solutions in the small diffusion case that converge to these exact solutions in the singular limit.

Spatial prediction of N2O emissions in pasture : a Bayesian model averaging analysis

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is one of the greenhouse gases that can contribute to global warming. Spatial variability of N2O can lead to large uncertainties in prediction. However, previous studies have often ignored the spatial dependency to quantify the N2O - environmental factors relationships. Few researches have examined the impacts of various spatial correlation structures (e.g. independence, distance-based and neighbourhood based) on spatial prediction of N2O emissions. This study aimed to assess the impact of three spatial correlation structures on spatial predictions and calibrate the spatial prediction using Bayesian model averaging (BMA) based on replicated, irregular point-referenced data. The data were measured in 17 chambers randomly placed across a 271 m(2) field between October 2007 and September 2008 in the southeast of Australia. We used a Bayesian geostatistical model and a Bayesian spatial conditional autoregressive (CAR) model to investigate and accommodate spatial dependency, and to estimate the effects of environmental variables on N2O emissions across the study site. We compared these with a Bayesian regression model with independent errors. The three approaches resulted in different derived maps of spatial prediction of N2O emissions. We found that incorporating spatial dependency in the model not only substantially improved predictions of N2O emission from soil, but also better quantified uncertainties of soil parameters in the study. The hybrid model structure obtained by BMA improved the accuracy of spatial prediction of N2O emissions across this study region.

Total heat transfer measurements on a flight investigation of reentry environment model

Stagnation-point total heat transfer was measured on a 1:27.7 model of the Flight Investigation of Reentry Environment II flight vehicle. Experiments were performed in the X1 expansion tube at an equivalent flight velocity and static enthalpy of 11 km/s and 12.7 MJ/kg, respectively. Conditions were chosen to replicate the flight condition at a total flight time of 1639.5 s, where radiation contributed an estimated 17-36% of the total heat transfer. This contribution is theorized to reduce to <2% in the scaled experiments, and the heating environment on the test model was expected to be dominated by convection. A correlation between reported flight heating rates and expected experimental heating, referred to as the reduced flight value, was developed to predict the level of heating expected on the test model. At the given flow conditions, the reduced flight value was calculated to be 150 MW/m2. Average stagnation-point total heat transfer was measured to be 140 ± 7% W/m2, showing good agreement with the predicted value. Experimentally measured heat transfer was found to have good agreement of between 5 and 15% with a number of convective heating correlations, confirming that convection dominates the tunnel heating environment, and that useful experimental measurements could be made in weakly coupled radiating flow