Web based expert elicitation of uncertainties in environmental model inputs

When constructing and using environmental models, it is typical that many of the inputs to the models will not be known perfectly. In some cases, it will be possible to make observations, or occasionally physics-based uncertainty propagation, to ascertain the uncertainty on these inputs. However, such observations are often either not available or even possible, and another approach to characterising the uncertainty on the inputs must be sought. Even when observations are available, if the analysis is being carried out within a Bayesian framework then prior distributions will have to be specified. One option for gathering or at least estimating this information is to employ expert elicitation. Expert elicitation is well studied within statistics and psychology and involves the assessment of the beliefs of a group of experts about an uncertain quantity, (for example an input / parameter within a model), typically in terms of obtaining a probability distribution. One of the challenges in expert elicitation is to minimise the biases that might enter into the judgements made by the individual experts, and then to come to a consensus decision within the group of experts. Effort is made in the elicitation exercise to prevent biases clouding the judgements through well-devised questioning schemes. It is also important that, when reaching a consensus, the experts are exposed to the knowledge of the others in the group. Within the FP7 UncertWeb project (http://www.uncertweb.org/), there is a requirement to build a Webbased tool for expert elicitation. In this paper, we discuss some of the issues of building a Web-based elicitation system - both the technological aspects and the statistical and scientific issues. In particular, we demonstrate two tools: a Web-based system for the elicitation of continuous random variables and a system designed to elicit uncertainty about categorical random variables in the setting of landcover classification uncertainty. The first of these examples is a generic tool developed to elicit uncertainty about univariate continuous random variables. It is designed to be used within an application context and extends the existing SHELF method, adding a web interface and access to metadata. The tool is developed so that it can be readily integrated with environmental models exposed as web services. The second example was developed for the TREES-3 initiative which monitors tropical landcover change through ground-truthing at confluence points. It allows experts to validate the accuracy of automated landcover classifications using site-specific imagery and local knowledge. Experts may provide uncertainty information at various levels: from a general rating of their confidence in a site validation to a numerical ranking of the possible landcover types within a segment. A key challenge in the web based setting is the design of the user interface and the method of interacting between the problem owner and the problem experts. We show the workflow of the elicitation tool, and show how we can represent the final elicited distributions and confusion matrices using UncertML, ready for integration into uncertainty enabled workflows.We also show how the metadata associated with the elicitation exercise is captured and can be referenced from the elicited result, providing crucial lineage information and thus traceability in the decision making process.

Time controlled photo-oxidation of polyolefins by polymer bound additives

A variety of iron compounds containing vinyl or thiol functional groups (used as photoactivators) have been synthesised and some of these were successfully bound to both polyethylene and polypropylene backbones during processing in the presence of peroxide and interlinking agent. Concentrates (masterbatches) of the photoactivators in PP and PE were prepared and the pro-oxidant effect of the diluted masterbatches in absence and presence of an antioxidant was evaluated. An antioxidant photoactivator (FeDNC ) was found to sensitise the photoactivity of pro-oxidants (Metone A / Metone M) whereas an antioxidant (ZnDNC) was found to stabilise the polymer (PP and PE) containing both of these combinations. It was observed that the lower concentration of FeDNC sensitises the stability of the polymer containing very small concentration of NiDNC whereas higher concentration of FeDNC stabilises the polymer (LDPE) containing same amount of NiDNC compared to FeDNC alone. The photostability of unstabilised PP containing FeAc could be varied by varying the concentration of ZnDEC. Both the induction period and the UV - life time of the polymer increased by increasing concentration of ZnDEC. It is suggested that ligand exchange reaction may take place between FeAc and ZnDNC. A polymer bound UV stabiliser (HAEB) and a thermal stabiliser (DBBA) were used with a non extractable photoactivator (FeAc) in PP. Small concentrations of the stabilisers (HAEB and DBBA) in combination with the photoactivator (FeAc) sensitise the polymer. The antioxidant present in commercial polymer (LDPE and PP) was found to be of a hindered phenol type, which was found to antagonise with ZnDNC when used in combination with the photoactivators.

Apodisation of photo-induced waveguide gratings using double-exposure with complementary duty cycles

We present a novel apodisation scheme for photo-induced waveguide gratings. The apodisation is implemented with double exposures that have reversely varying duty cycles. We have successfully applied the proposed scheme to remove the sidelobes of long period gratings (LPGs). We also observed for the first time super strong sidelobes in LPGs when creating them with only a single varying-duty-cycle exposure. The strong sidelobes can be well explained with a Mach-Zehnder interference model.

Maintenance of communication in primary classrooms : some evidence for the role of elicitation and code-switching in English medium schools in Kenya, with implications for teaching

This is a study of specific aspects of classroom interaction primary school level in Kenya. The study entailed the identification of the sources of particular communication problems during the change-over period from Kiswahili to English medium teaching in two primary schools. There was subsequently an examination of the language resources which were employed by teachers to maintain pupil participation in communication in the light of the occurrence of possibility of occurrence of specific communication problems. The language resources which were found to be significant in this regard concerned firstly the use of different elicitation types by teachers to stimulate pupils into giving responses and secondly teachers' recourse to code-switching from English to Kiswahili and vice-versa. It was also found in this study that although the use of English as the medium of instruction in the classrooms which were observed resulted in certain communication problems, some of these problems need not have arisen if teachers had been more careful in their use of language. The consideration of this finding, after taking into account the role of different elicitation types and code-switching as interpretable from data samples had certain implications which are specified in the study for teaching in Kenyan primary schools. The corpus for the study consisted of audio-recordings of English, Science and Number-Work lessons which were later transcribed. Relevant data samples were subsequently extracted from transcripts for analysis. Many of the samples have examples of cases of communication breakdowns, but they also illustrate how teachers maintained interaction with pupils who had yet to acquire an operational mastery of English. This study thus differs from most studies on classroom interaction because of its basic concern with the examination of the resources available to teachers for overcoming the problem areas of classroom communication.