An improved approach for predicting the distribution of rare and endangered species from occurrence and pseudo-absence data

1. Few examples of habitat-modelling studies of rare and endangered species exist in the literature, although from a conservation perspective predicting their distribution would prove particularly useful. Paucity of data and lack of valid absences are the probable reasons for this shortcoming. Analytic solutions to accommodate the lack of absence include the ecological niche factor analysis (ENFA) and the use of generalized linear models (GLM) with simulated pseudo-absences. 2. In this study we tested a new approach to generating pseudo-absences, based on a preliminary ENFA habitat suitability (HS) map, for the endangered species Eryngium alpinum. This method of generating pseudo-absences was compared with two others: (i) use of a GLM with pseudo-absences generated totally at random, and (ii) use of an ENFA only. 3. The influence of two different spatial resolutions (i.e. grain) was also assessed for tackling the dilemma of quality (grain) vs. quantity (number of occurrences). Each combination of the three above-mentioned methods with the two grains generated a distinct HS map. 4. Four evaluation measures were used for comparing these HS maps: total deviance explained, best kappa, Gini coefficient and minimal predicted area (MPA). The last is a new evaluation criterion proposed in this study. 5. Results showed that (i) GLM models using ENFA-weighted pseudo-absence provide better results, except for the MPA value, and that (ii) quality (spatial resolution and locational accuracy) of the data appears to be more important than quantity (number of occurrences). Furthermore, the proposed MPA value is suggested as a useful measure of model evaluation when used to complement classical statistical measures. 6. Synthesis and applications. We suggest that the use of ENFA-weighted pseudo-absence is a possible way to enhance the quality of GLM-based potential distribution maps and that data quality (i.e. spatial resolution) prevails over quantity (i.e. number of data). Increased accuracy of potential distribution maps could help to define better suitable areas for species protection and reintroduction.

Carbonate Rock Pore Size Distribution Determination through Iowa Pore Index Testing, MLR-15-01, 2015

The Iowa Pore Index (IPI) measures the pore system of carbonate (limestone and dolomite) rocks using pressurized water to infiltrate the pore system. This technique provides quantitative results for the primary and capillary (secondary) pores in carbonate rocks. These results are used in conjunction with chemical and mineralogical test results to calculate a quality number, which is used as a predictor of aggregate performance in Portland cement concrete (PCC) leading to the durability classification of the aggregate. This study had two main objectives: to determine the effect different aggregate size has on IPI test results and to establish the precision of IPI test and test apparatus. It was found that smaller aggregate size fractions could be correlated to the standard 1/2”-3/4” size sample. Generally, a particle size decrease was accompanied by a slight decrease in IPI values. The IPI testing also showed fairly good agreement of the secondary pore index number between the 1/2”-3/4”and the 3/8”-1/2” fraction. The #4-3/8” showed a greater difference of the secondary number from the 1/2”-3/4” fraction. The precision of the IPI test was established as a standard deviation (Sr) of 2.85 (Primary) and 0.87 (Secondary) with a repeatability limit (%r) of 8.5% and 14.9% for the primary and secondary values, respectively.

Report on the Iowa Department of Human Services – Central Distribution Center for the year ended June 30, 2014

Report on the Iowa Department of Human Services – Central Distribution Center for the year ended June 30, 2014

Effects of parental larval diet on egg size and offspring traits in Drosophila.

If a mother's nutritional status predicts the nutritional environment of the offspring, it would be adaptive for mothers experiencing nutritional stress to prime their offspring for a better tolerance to poor nutrition. We report that in Drosophila melanogaster, parents raised on poor larval food laid 3-6% heavier eggs than parents raised on standard food, despite being 30 per cent smaller. Their offspring developed 14 h (4%) faster on the poor food than offspring of well-fed parents. However, they were slightly smaller as adults. Thus, the effects of parental diet on offspring performance under malnutrition apparently involve both adaptive plasticity and maladaptive effects of parental stress.

Do stacked species distribution models reflect altitudinal diversity patterns?

The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of stacked species distribution models in predicting the alpha and gamma species diversity patterns of two important plant clades along elevation in the Andes. We modelled the distribution of the species in the Anthurium genus (53 species) and the Bromeliaceae family (89 species) using six modelling techniques. We combined all of the predictions for the same species in ensemble models based on two different criteria: the average of the rescaled predictions by all techniques and the average of the best techniques. The rescaled predictions were then reclassified into binary predictions (presence/absence). By stacking either the original predictions or binary predictions for both ensemble procedures, we obtained four different species richness models per taxa. The gamma and alpha diversity per elevation band (500 m) was also computed. To evaluate the prediction abilities for the four predictions of species richness and gamma diversity, the models were compared with the real data along an elevation gradient that was independently compiled by specialists. Finally, we also tested whether our richness models performed better than a null model of altitudinal changes of diversity based on the literature. Stacking of the ensemble prediction of the individual species models generated richness models that proved to be well correlated with the observed alpha diversity richness patterns along elevation and with the gamma diversity derived from the literature. Overall, these models tend to overpredict species richness. The use of the ensemble predictions from the species models built with different techniques seems very promising for modelling of species assemblages. Stacking of the binary models reduced the over-prediction, although more research is needed. The randomisation test proved to be a promising method for testing the performance of the stacked models, but other implementations may still be developed.

Recent Observations of the Distribution and Status of Bluntnose Darters and Crystal Darters in Iowa

The distribution and status of Iowa's fishes were last extensively described in Iowa Fish and Fishing (Harlan et al. 1987). Since then, numerous fish collections have been made in Iowa's interior and bordering rivers and streams. Excluding non-native species, there have been three documented accounts of new fish species distributional records in Iowa since 1987. In this paper, I describe new collections of Crystal Darter (Crystallaria asprella) and Bluntnose Darter (Etheostoma chlorosomum) from the Mississippi River. The first documented specimen of C. asprella in Iowa was collected in Pool 11 of the Upper Mississippi River (UMR) in 1995. One specimen of E. chlorosomum was collected in Pool 13 of the UMR in 1998, and another was collected in 1999. The bluntnose darter had not been collected since 1975 and was generally thought to be extirpated in Iowa.

Pathologic ventricular hypertrophy in the offspring of diabetic mothers: a retrospective study.

AIMS: Diabetes in pregnant women is increasing and with that the complications in their offspring. We studied our population of diabetic mothers (2003-2005) for pathologic ventricular hypertrophy (PVH). METHODS AND RESULTS: In our retrospective study of all 87 diabetic pregnancies (92 neonates), 16 were type 1, 17 were type 2, and 54 were gestational diabetes (GD). Haemoglobin glycated (HbA1c) median was 5.8% (5.3-6.5): 17 with HbA1c above normal 2 with congenital heart disease (CHD) and six with PVH. A total of 75 neonates were normal, five had CHD, and 12 had PVH (1/12 died post-natally, 1/12 stillborn, 2/12 required premature delivery, 8/12 normal). The 16 type 1 pregnancies resulted in three neonates with CHD and in 50% PVH, including one death, one premature Cesarean section because of PVH. The 17 neonates of type 2 pregnancies showed in one CHD and in 25% PVH. Of the 54 GD pregnancies, one had CHD and one had PVH. CONCLUSION: Pregnancies of both type 1 and 2 diabetes carry an increased risk for foetal development of PVH compared with those with GD. The insufficient effect of preventive glycaemia controls leads to conclude that although no definite predictive parameters for malignant outcome can be presented, close monitoring of these pregnancies may prevent perinatal catastrophes.