Kernel-based local order estimation of nonlinear nonparametric systems

We consider the local order estimation of nonlinear autoregressive systems with exogenous inputs (NARX), which may have different local dimensions at different points. By minimizing the kernel-based local information criterion introduced in this paper, the strongly consistent estimates for the local orders of the NARX system at points of interest are obtained. The modification of the criterion and a simple procedure of searching the minimum of the criterion, are also discussed. The theoretical results derived here are tested by simulation examples.

Ranking Spatial and Temporal Hotspots for Road Safety Interventions Using a Nonlinear Aggregation Approach

In recent years, the concept of a composite performance index, brought from economic and business statistics, has gained popularity in the field of road safety. The construction of the Composite Safety Performance Index (CSPI) involves the following key steps: the selection of the most appropriate indicators to be aggregated and the method used to aggregate them.

Over the last decade, various aggregation methods for estimating the CSPI have been suggested in the literature. However, recent studies indicates that most of these methods suffer from many deficiencies at both the theoretical and operational level; these include the correlation and compensability between indicators, as well as their high “degree of freedom” which enables one to readily manipulate them to produce desired outcomes.

The purpose of this study is to introduce an alternative aggregation method for the estimation of the CSPI, which is free from the aforementioned deficiencies. In contrast with the current aggregation methods, which generally use linear combinations of road safety indicators to estimate a CSPI, the approach advocated in this study is based on non-linear combinations of indicators and can be summarized into the following two main steps: the pairwise comparison of road safety indicators and the development of marginal and composite road safety performance functions. The introduced method has been successfully applied to identify and rank temporal and spatial hotspots for Northern Ireland, using road traffic collision data recorded in the UK STATs19 database. The obtained results highlight the promising features of the proposed approach including its stability and consistency, which enables significantly reduced deficiencies associated with the current aggregation methods. Progressively, the introduced method could evolve into an intelligent support system for road safety assessment.

Ultrahigh Brilliance Multi-MeV γ-Ray Beams from Nonlinear Relativistic Thomson Scattering

We report on the generation of a narrow divergence (θγ<2.5mrad), multi-MeV (Emax≈18MeV) and ultrahigh peak brilliance (>1.8×1020photonss-1mm-2mrad-2 0.1% BW) γ-ray beam from the scattering of an ultrarelativistic laser-wakefield accelerated electron beam in the field of a relativistically intense laser (dimensionless amplitude a0≈2). The spectrum of the generated γ-ray beam is measured, with MeV resolution, seamlessly from 6 to 18 MeV, giving clear evidence of the onset of nonlinear relativistic Thomson scattering. To the best of our knowledge, this photon source has the highest peak brilliance in the multi-MeV regime ever reported in the literature.

The organizational ecology of ethnic cleavages: The nonlinear effects of ethnic diversity on party system fragmentation

The conventional wisdom regarding party system fragmentation assumes that the effects of electoral systems and social cleavages are linear. However, recent work applying organizational ecology theories to the study of party systems has challenged the degree to which electoral system effects are linear. This paper applies such concepts to the study of social cleavages. Drawing from theories of organizational ecology and the experience of many ethnically diverse African party systems, I argue that the effects of ethnic diversity are nonlinear, with party system fragmentation increasing until reaching moderate levels of diversity before declining as diversity reaches extreme values. Examining this argument cross-nationally, the results show that accounting for nonlinearity in ethnic diversity effects significantly improves model fit.

Modeling relativistic soliton interactions in overdense plasmas: A perturbed nonlinear Schrodinger equation framework

We investigate the dynamics of localized solutions of the relativistic cold-fluid plasma model in the small but finite amplitude limit, for slightly overcritical plasma density. Adopting a multiple scale analysis, we derive a perturbed nonlinear Schrodinger equation that describes the evolution of the envelope of circularly polarized electromagnetic field. Retaining terms up to fifth order in the small perturbation parameter, we derive a self-consistent framework for the description of the plasma response in the presence of localized electromagnetic field. The formalism is applied to standing electromagnetic soliton interactions and the results are validated by simulations of the full cold-fluid model. To lowest order, a cubic nonlinear Schrodinger equation with a focusing nonlinearity is recovered. Classical quasiparticle theory is used to obtain analytical estimates for the collision time and minimum distance of approach between solitons. For larger soliton amplitudes the inclusion of the fifth-order terms is essential for a qualitatively correct description of soliton interactions. The defocusing quintic nonlinearity leads to inelastic soliton collisions, while bound states of solitons do not persist under perturbations in the initial phase or amplitude