Problems with binary pattern measures for flood model evaluation

As the calibration and evaluation of flood inundation models are a prerequisite for their successful application, there is a clear need to ensure that the performance measures that quantify how well models match the available observations are fit for purpose. This paper evaluates the binary pattern performance measures that are frequently used to compare flood inundation models with observations of flood extent. This evaluation considers whether these measures are able to calibrate and evaluate model predictions in a credible and consistent way, i.e. identifying the underlying model behaviour for a number of different purposes such as comparing models of floods of different magnitudes or on different catchments. Through theoretical examples, it is shown that the binary pattern measures are not consistent for floods of different sizes, such that for the same vertical error in water level, a model of a flood of large magnitude appears to perform better than a model of a smaller magnitude flood. Further, the commonly used Critical Success Index (usually referred to as F<2 >) is biased in favour of overprediction of the flood extent, and is also biased towards correctly predicting areas of the domain with smaller topographic gradients. Consequently, it is recommended that future studies consider carefully the implications of reporting conclusions using these performance measures. Additionally, future research should consider whether a more robust and consistent analysis could be achieved by using elevation comparison methods instead.

Buzz-words in international management education

Buzz words are used by professional academics to signal that the author or speaker is aware of current trends in the subject. Buzz worfds are usually introduced in a specific context, but as they become more popular they are used in other contexts where their meaning is less clear. This creates ambiguity, whhich can be deployed to advance spurious arguments that are difficult for opponents to refute. This thesis is illustrated by reference to the use of the 'strategy' concept in intermnational management education

Endocannabinoids in neuroendopsychology: multiphasic control of mitochondrial function

The endocannabinoid system (ECS) is a construct based on the discovery of receptors that are modulated by the plant compound tetrahydrocannabinol and the subsequent identification of a family of nascent ligands, the 'endocannabinoids'. The function of the ECS is thus defined by modulation of these receptors-in particular, by two of the best-described ligands (2-arachidonyl glycerol and anandamide), and by their metabolic pathways. Endocannabinoids are released by cell stress, and promote both cell survival and death according to concentration. The ECS appears to shift the immune system towards a type 2 response, while maintaining a positive energy balance and reducing anxiety. It may therefore be important in resolution of injury and inflammation. Data suggest that the ECS could potentially modulate mitochondrial function by several different pathways; this may help explain its actions in the central nervous system. Dose-related control of mitochondrial function could therefore provide an insight into its role in health and disease, and why it might have its own pathology, and possibly, new therapeutic directions.

Inflammatory modulation of exercise salience: using hormesis to return to a healthy lifestyle

Most of the human population in the western world has access to unlimited calories and leads an increasingly sedentary lifestyle. The propensity to undertake voluntary exercise or indulge in spontaneous physical exercise, which might be termed "exercise salience", is drawing increased scientific attention. Despite its genetic aspects, this complex behaviour is clearly modulated by the environment and influenced by physiological states. Inflammation is often overlooked as one of these conditions even though it is known to induce a state of reduced mobility. Chronic subclinical inflammation is associated with the metabolic syndrome; a largely lifestyle-induced disease which can lead to decreased exercise salience. The result is a vicious cycle that increases oxidative stress and reduces metabolic flexibility and perpetuates the disease state. In contrast, hormetic stimuli can induce an anti-inflammatory phenotype, thereby enhancing exercise salience, leading to greater biological fitness and improved functional longevity. One general consequence of hormesis is upregulation of mitochondrial function and resistance to oxidative stress. Examples of hormetic factors include calorie restriction, extreme environmental temperatures, physical activity and polyphenols. The hormetic modulation of inflammation, and thus, exercise salience, may help to explain the highly heterogeneous expression of voluntary exercise behaviour and therefore body composition phenotypes of humans living in similar obesogenic environments.

Endocannabinoids, FOXO and the metabolic syndrome: redox, function and tipping point--the view from two systems

The endocannabinoid system (ECS) was only 'discovered' in the 1990s. Since then, many new ligands have been identified, as well as many new intracellular targets--ranging from the PPARs, to mitochondria, to lipid rafts. It was thought that blocking the CB-1 receptor might reverse obesity and the metabolic syndrome. This was based on the idea that the ECS was dysfunctional in these conditions. This has met with limited success. The reason may be that the ECS is a homeostatic system, which integrates energy seeking and storage behaviour with resistance to oxidative stress. It could be viewed as having thrifty actions. Thriftiness is an innate property of life, which is programmed to a set point by both environment and genetics, resulting in an epigenotype perfectly adapted to its environment. This thrifty set point can be modulated by hormetic stimuli, such as exercise, cold and plant micronutrients. We have proposed that the physiological and protective insulin resistance that underlies thriftiness encapsulates something called 'redox thriftiness', whereby insulin resistance is determined by the ability to resist oxidative stress. Modern man has removed most hormetic stimuli and replaced them with a calorific sedentary lifestyle, leading to increased risk of metabolic inflexibility. We suggest that there is a tipping point where lipotoxicity in adipose and hepatic cells induces mild inflammation, which switches thrifty insulin resistance to inflammation-driven insulin resistance. To understand this, we propose that the metabolic syndrome could be seen from the viewpoint of the ECS, the mitochondrion and the FOXO group of transcription factors. FOXO has many thrifty actions, including increasing insulin resistance and appetite, suppressing oxidative stress and shifting the organism towards using fatty acids. In concert with factors such as PGC-1, they also modify mitochondrial function and biogenesis. Hence, the ECS and FOXO may interact at many points; one of which may be via intracellular redox signalling. As cannabinoids have been shown to modulate reactive oxygen species production, it is possible that they can upregulate anti-oxidant defences. This suggests they may have an 'endohormetic' signalling function. The tipping point into the metabolic syndrome may be the result of a chronic lack of hormetic stimuli (in particular, physical activity), and thus, stimulus for PGC-1, with a resultant reduction in mitochondrial function and a reduced lipid capacitance. This, in the context of a positive calorie environment, will result in increased visceral adipose tissue volume, abnormal ectopic fat content and systemic inflammation. This would worsen the inflammatory-driven pathological insulin resistance and inability to deal with lipids. The resultant oxidative stress may therefore drive a compensatory anti-oxidative response epitomised by the ECS and FOXO. Thus, although blocking the ECS (e.g. via rimonabant) may induce temporary weight loss, it may compromise long-term stress resistance. Clues about how to modulate the system more safely are emerging from observations that some polyphenols, such as resveratrol and possibly, some phytocannabinoids, can modulate mitochondrial function and might improve resistance to a modern lifestyle.

Lifestyle-induced metabolic inflexibility and accelerated ageing syndrome: insulin resistance, friend or foe?

The metabolic syndrome may have its origins in thriftiness, insulin resistance and one of the most ancient of all signalling systems, redox. Thriftiness results from an evolutionarily-driven propensity to minimise energy expenditure. This has to be balanced with the need to resist the oxidative stress from cellular signalling and pathogen resistance, giving rise to something we call 'redox-thriftiness'. This is based on the notion that mitochondria may be able to both amplify membrane-derived redox growth signals as well as negatively regulate them, resulting in an increased ATP/ROS ratio. We suggest that 'redox-thriftiness' leads to insulin resistance, which has the effect of both protecting the individual cell from excessive growth/inflammatory stress, while ensuring energy is channelled to the brain, the immune system, and for storage. We also suggest that fine tuning of redox-thriftiness is achieved by hormetic (mild stress) signals that stimulate mitochondrial biogenesis and resistance to oxidative stress, which improves metabolic flexibility. However, in a non-hormetic environment with excessive calories, the protective nature of this system may lead to escalating insulin resistance and rising oxidative stress due to metabolic inflexibility and mitochondrial overload. Thus, the mitochondrially-associated resistance to oxidative stress (and metabolic flexibility) may determine insulin resistance. Genetically and environmentally determined mitochondrial function may define a 'tipping point' where protective insulin resistance tips over to inflammatory insulin resistance. Many hormetic factors may induce mild mitochondrial stress and biogenesis, including exercise, fasting, temperature extremes, unsaturated fats, polyphenols, alcohol, and even metformin and statins. Without hormesis, a proposed redox-thriftiness tipping point might lead to a feed forward insulin resistance cycle in the presence of excess calories. We therefore suggest that as oxidative stress determines functional longevity, a rather more descriptive term for the metabolic syndrome is the 'lifestyle-induced metabolic inflexibility and accelerated ageing syndrome'. Ultimately, thriftiness is good for us as long as we have hormetic stimuli; unfortunately, mankind is attempting to remove all hormetic (stressful) stimuli from his environment.