Understanding Uncertainties in Non-Linear Population Trajectories: A Bayesian Semi-Parametric Hierarchical Approach to Large-Scale Surveys of Coral Cover

Recently, attempts to improve decision making in species management have focussed on uncertainties associated with modelling temporal fluctuations in populations. Reducing model uncertainty is challenging; while larger samples improve estimation of species trajectories and reduce statistical errors, they typically amplify variability in observed trajectories. In particular, traditional modelling approaches aimed at estimating population trajectories usually do not account well for nonlinearities and uncertainties associated with multi-scale observations characteristic of large spatio-temporal surveys. We present a Bayesian semi-parametric hierarchical model for simultaneously quantifying uncertainties associated with model structure and parameters, and scale-specific variability over time. We estimate uncertainty across a four-tiered spatial hierarchy of coral cover from the Great Barrier Reef. Coral variability is well described; however, our results show that, in the absence of additional model specifications, conclusions regarding coral trajectories become highly uncertain when considering multiple reefs, suggesting that management should focus more at the scale of individual reefs. The approach presented facilitates the description and estimation of population trajectories and associated uncertainties when variability cannot be attributed to specific causes and origins. We argue that our model can unlock value contained in large-scale datasets, provide guidance for understanding sources of uncertainty, and support better informed decision making

SAIVT-ADMRG @ MediaEval 2014 social event detection

This paper outlines the approach taken by the Speech, Audio, Image and Video Technologies laboratory, and the Applied Data Mining Research Group (SAIVT-ADMRG) in the 2014 MediaEval Social Event Detection (SED) task. We participated in the event based clustering subtask (subtask 1), and focused on investigating the incorporation of image features as another source of data to aid clustering. In particular, we developed a descriptor based around the use of super-pixel segmentation, that allows a low dimensional feature that incorporates both colour and texture information to be extracted and used within the popular bag-of-visual-words (BoVW) approach.

Transnational preservice teachers in local education programs : a critical realist approach to narratives

This study explores how preservice teachers with non-Australian educational backgrounds and prerequisite qualifications make their way into and through a local teacher education program. It is informed by Margaret Archer's sociology of reflexivity to understand the interplay between these people's personal resources and institutional constraints and enablements. Data were collected from seven participants through narrative interviews. A narrative analysis identified big and small stories. Findings show that these preservice teachers purposefully exercise their agency as they invest in a common project for a variety of transnational goals. The outcome of that project emerges from the interaction between structure and agency.

Integrated approach to optimize open-pit mine block sequencing

Critical stage in open-pit mining is to determine the optimal extraction sequence of blocks, which has significant impacts on mining profitability. In this paper, a more comprehensive block sequencing optimisation model is developed for the open-pit mines. In the model, material characteristics of blocks, grade control, excavator and block sequencing are investigated and integrated to maximise the short-term benefit of mining. Several case studies are modeled and solved by CPLEX MIP and CP engines. Numerical investigations are presented to illustrate and validate the proposed methodology.

Combining opinions for use in Bayesian networks: A measurement error approach

Bayesian networks (BNs) are graphical probabilistic models used for reasoning under uncertainty. These models are becoming increasing popular in a range of fields including ecology, computational biology, medical diagnosis, and forensics. In most of these cases, the BNs are quantified using information from experts, or from user opinions. An interest therefore lies in the way in which multiple opinions can be represented and used in a BN. This paper proposes the use of a measurement error model to combine opinions for use in the quantification of a BN. The multiple opinions are treated as a realisation of measurement error and the model uses the posterior probabilities ascribed to each node in the BN which are computed from the prior information given by each expert. The proposed model addresses the issues associated with current methods of combining opinions such as the absence of a coherent probability model, the lack of the conditional independence structure of the BN being maintained, and the provision of only a point estimate for the consensus. The proposed model is applied an existing Bayesian Network and performed well when compared to existing methods of combining opinions.

Identifying influential users of micro-blogging services : a dynamic action-based network approach

In this paper, we present a dynamic model to identify influential users of micro-blogging services. Micro-blogging services, such as Twitter, allow their users (twitterers) to publish tweets and choose to follow other users to receive tweets. Previous work on user influence on Twitter, concerns more on following link structure and the contents user published, seldom emphasizes the importance of interactions among users. We argue that, by emphasizing on user actions in micro-blogging platform, user influence could be measured more accurately. Since micro-blogging is a powerful social media and communication platform, identifying influential users according to user interactions has more practical meanings, e.g., advertisers may concern how many actions – buying, in this scenario – the influential users could initiate rather than how many advertisements they spread. By introducing the idea of PageRank algorithm, innovatively, we propose our model using action-based network which could capture the ability of influential users when they interacting with micro-blogging platform. Taking the evolving prosperity of micro-blogging into consideration, we extend our actionbaseduser influence model into a dynamic one, which could distinguish influential users in different time periods. Simulation results demonstrate that our models could support and give reasonable explanations for the scenarios that we considered.

Exploring the effect of political risks in large infrastructure projects in politically unstable countries using a probabilistic modelling approach

This research aims to explore and identify political risks on a large infrastructure project in an exaggerated environment to ascertain whether sufficient objective information can be gathered by project managers to utilise risk modelling techniques. During the study, the author proposes a new definition of political risk; performs a detailed project study of the Neelum Jhelum Hydroelectric Project in Pakistan; implements a probabilistic model using the principle of decomposition and Bayes probabilistic theorem and answers the question: was it possible for project managers to obtain all the relevant objective data to implement a probabilistic model?

A Gaussian pseudolikelihood approach for quantile regression with repeated measurements

To enhance the efficiency of regression parameter estimation by modeling the correlation structure of correlated binary error terms in quantile regression with repeated measurements, we propose a Gaussian pseudolikelihood approach for estimating correlation parameters and selecting the most appropriate working correlation matrix simultaneously. The induced smoothing method is applied to estimate the covariance of the regression parameter estimates, which can bypass density estimation of the errors. Extensive numerical studies indicate that the proposed method performs well in selecting an accurate correlation structure and improving regression parameter estimation efficiency. The proposed method is further illustrated by analyzing a dental dataset.