Reexamining the science of marine protected areas: Linking knowledge to action

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are often implemented to conserve or restore species, fisheries, habitats, ecosystems, and ecological functions and services; buffer against the ecological effects of climate change; and alleviate poverty in coastal communities. Scientific research provides valuable insights into the social and ecological impacts of MPAs, as well as the factors that shape these impacts, providing useful guidance or "rules of thumb" for science-based MPA policy. Both ecological and social factors foster effective MPAs, including substantial coverage of representative habitats and oceanographic conditions; diverse size and spacing; protection of habitat bottlenecks; participatory decisionmaking arrangements; bounded and contextually appropriate resource use rights; active and accountable monitoring and enforcement systems; and accessible conflict resolution mechanisms. For MPAs to realize their full potential as a tool for ocean governance, further advances in policy-relevant MPA science are required. These research frontiers include MPA impacts on nontarget and wide-ranging species and habitats; impacts beyond MPA boundaries, on ecosystem services, and on resource-dependent human populations, as well as potential scale mismatches of ecosystem service flows. Explicitly treating MPAs as "policy experiments" and employing the tools of impact evaluation holds particular promise as a way for policy-relevant science to inform and advance science-based MPA policy. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Computer modelling of human behaviour in aircraft fire accidents

The mathematical simulation of the evacuation process has a wide and largely untapped scope of application within the aircraft industry. The function of the mathematical model is to provide insight into complex behaviour by allowing designers, legislators, and investigators to ask ‘what if’ questions. Such a model, EXODUS, is currently under development, and this paper describes its evolution and potential applications. EXODUS is an egress model designed to simulate the evacuation of large numbers of individuals from an enclosure, such as an aircraft. The model tracks the trajectory of each individual as they make their way out of the enclosure or are overcome by fire hazards, such as heat and toxic gases. The software is expert system-based, the progressive motion and behaviour of each individual being determined by a set of heuristics or rules. EXODUS comprises five core interacting components: (i) the Movement Submodel — controls the physical movement of individual passengers from their current position to the most suitable neighbouring location; (ii) the Behaviour Submodel — determines an individual's response to the current prevailing situation; (iii) the Passenger Submodel — describes an individual as a collection of 22 defining attributes and variables; (iv) the Hazard Submodel — controls the atmospheric and physical environment; and (v) the Toxicity Submodel — determines the effects on an individual exposed to the fire products, heat, and narcotic gases through the Fractional Effective Dose calculations. These components are briefly described and their capabilities and limitations are demonstrated through comparison with experimental data and several hypothetical evacuation scenarios.

The AASK database V4.0: aircraft accident statistics and knowledge. A database to record human experience of evacuation in aviation accidents

This paper describes the AASK database. The AASK database is unique as it is a record of human behaviour during survivable aviation accidents. The AASK database is compiled from interview data compiled by agencies such as the NTSB and the AAIB. The database can be found on the website http://fseg.gre.ac.uk

Aircraft accident statistics and knowledge database: analyzing passenger behavior in aviation accidents

The Aircraft Accident Statistics and Knowledge (AASK) database is a repository of passenger accounts from survivable aviation accidents/incidents compiled from interview data collected by agencies such as the US NTSB. Its main purpose is to store observational and anecdotal data from the actual interviews of the occupants involved in aircraft accidents. The database has wide application to aviation safety analysis, being a source of factual data regarding the evacuation process. It also plays a significant role in the development of the airEXODUS aircraft evacuation model, where insight into how people actually behave during evacuation from survivable aircraft crashes is required. This paper describes the latest version of the database (Version 4.0) and includes some analysis of passenger behavior during actual accidents/incidents.

An analysis of the passenger to cabin crew ratio and exit reliability based on past survivable aviation accidents

A hotly debated issue in the area of aviation safety is the number of cabin crew members required to evacuate an aircraft in the event of an emergency. Most countries regulate the minimum number required for the safe operation of an aircraft, but these rulings are based on little if any scientific evidence. Another issue of concern is the failure rate of exits and slides. This paper examines these issues using the latest version of Aircraft Accident Statistics and Knowledge database AASK V4.0, which contains information from 105 survivable crashes and more than 2,000 survivors, including accounts from 155 cabin crew members.

CAA paper 2006/01: a database to record human experience of evacuation in aviation accidents: the aircraft accident statistics and knowledge database (AASK)

This report concerns the development of the AASK V4.0 database (CAA Project 560/SRG/R+AD). AASK is the Aircraft Accident Statistics and Knowledge database, which is a repository of survivor accounts from aviation accidents. Its main purpose is to store observational and anecdotal data from interviews of the occupants involved in aircraft accidents. The AASK database has wide application to aviation safety analysis, being a source of factual data regarding the evacuation process. It is also key to the development of aircraft evacuation models such as airEXODUS, where insight into how people actually behave during evacuation from survivable aircraft crashes is required. With support from the UK CAA (Project 277/SRG/R&AD), AASK V3.0 was developed. This was an on-line prototype system available over the internet to selected users and included a significantly increased number of passenger accounts compared with earlier versions, the introduction of cabin crew accounts, the introduction of fatality information and improved functionality through the seat plan viewer utility. The most recently completed AASK project (Project 560/SRG/R+AD) involved four main components: a) analysis of the data collected in V3.0; b) continued collection and entry of data into AASK; c) maintenance and functional development of the AASK database; and d) user feedback survey. All four components have been pursued and completed in this two-year project. The current version developed in the last year of the project is referred to as AASK V4.0. This report provides summaries of the work done and the results obtained in relation to the project deliverables.

Reinforcement corrosion initiation and activation times in concrete structures exposed to severe marine environments

The corrosion of steel reinforcement bars in reinforced concrete structures exposed to severe marine environments usually is attributed to the aggressive nature of chloride ions. In some cases in practice corrosion has been observed to commence already within a few years of exposure even with considerable concrete cover to the reinforcement and apparently high quality concretes. However, there are a number of other cases in practice for which corrosion initiation took much longer, even in cases with quite modest concrete cover and modest concrete quality. Many of these structures show satisfactory long-term structural performance, despite having high levels of localized chloride concentrations at the reinforcement. This disparity was noted already more than 50 years ago, but appears still not fully explained. This paper presents a systematic overview of cases reported in the engineering and corrosion literature and considers possible reasons for these differences. Consistent with observations by others, the data show that concretes made from blast furnace cements have better corrosion durability properties. The data also strongly suggest that concretes made with limestone or non-reactive dolomite aggregates or sufficiently high levels of other forms of calcium carbonates have favourable reinforcement corrosion properties. Both corrosion initiation and the onset of significant damage are delayed. Some possible reasons for this are explored briefly.