Improved principal component monitoring using the local approach

This paper shows that current multivariate statistical monitoring technology may not detect incipient changes in the variable covariance structure nor changes in the geometry of the underlying variable decomposition. To overcome these deficiencies, the local approach is incorporated into the multivariate statistical monitoring framework to define two new univariate statistics for fault detection. Fault isolation is achieved by constructing a fault diagnosis chart which reveals changes in the covariance structure resulting from the presence of a fault. A theoretical analysis is presented and the proposed monitoring approach is exemplified using application studies involving recorded data from two complex industrial processes. © 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Response of farmland biodiversity to the introduction of bioenergy crops: effects of local factors and surrounding landscape context

The recent growth in bioenergy crop cultivation, stimulated by the need to implement measures to reduce net CO emissions, is driving major land-use changes with consequences for biodiversity and ecosystem service provision. Although the type of bioenergy crop and its associated management is likely to affect biodiversity at the local (field) scale, landscape context and its interaction with crop type may also influence biodiversity on farms. In this study, we assessed the impact of replacing conventional agricultural crops with two model bioenergy crops (either oilseed rape Brassica napus or Miscanthus × giganteus) on vascular plant, bumblebee, solitary bee, hoverfly and carabid beetle richness, diversity and abundance in 50 sites in Ireland. We assessed whether within-field biodiversity was also related to surrounding landscape structure. We found that local- and landscape-scale variables correlated with biodiversity in these agricultural landscapes. Overall, the differences between the bioenergy crops and the conventional crops on farmland biodiversity were mostly positive (e.g. higher vascular plant richness in Miscanthus planted on former conventional tillage, higher solitary bee abundance and richness in Miscanthus and oilseed rape compared with conventional crops) or neutral (e.g. no differences between crop types for hoverflies and bumblebees). We showed that these crop type effects were independent of (i.e. no interactions with) the surrounding landscape composition and configuration. However, surrounding landscape context did relate to biodiversity in these farms, negatively for carabid beetles and positively for hoverflies. Although we conclude that the bioenergy crops compared favourably with conventional crops in terms of biodiversity of the taxa studied at the field scale, the effects of large-scale planting in these landscapes could result in very different impacts. Maintaining ecosystem functioning and the delivery of ecosystem services will require a greater understanding of impacts at the landscape scale to ensure the sustainable development of climate change mitigation measures.

Patterns of synchrony in natterjack toad breeding activity and reproductive success at local and regional scales

Empirical studies of the spatiotemporal dynamics of populations are required to better understand natural fluctuations in abundance and reproductive success, and to better target conservation and monitoring programmes. In particular, spatial synchrony in amphibian populations remains little studied. We used data from a comprehensive three year study of natterjack toad Bufo calamita populations breeding at 36 ponds to assess whether there was spatial synchrony in the toad breeding activity (start and length of breeding season, total number of egg strings) and reproductive success (premetamorphic survival and production of metamorphs). We defined a novel approach to assess the importance of short-term synchrony at both local and regional scales. The approach employs similarity indices and quantifies the interaction between the temporal and spatial components of populations using mixed effects models. There was no synchrony in the toad breeding activity and reproductive success at the local scale, suggesting that populations function as individual clusters independent of each other. Regional synchrony was apparent in the commencement and duration of the breeding season and in the number of egg strings laid (indicative of female population size). Regional synchrony in both rainfall and temperature are likely to explain the patterns observed (e.g. Moran effect). There was no evidence supporting regional synchrony in reproductive success, most likely due to spatial variability in the environmental conditions at the breeding ponds, and to differences in local population fitness (e.g. fecundity). The small scale asynchronous dynamics and regional synchronous dynamics in the number of breeding females indicate that it is best to monitor several populations within a subset of regions. Importantly, variations in the toad breeding activity and reproductive success are not synchronous, and it is thus important to consider them both when assessing the conservation status of pond-breeding amphibians. © 2012 The Authors. Ecography © 2012 Nordic Society Oikos.