¿Son excesivamente suaves las series de contabilidad nacional trimestral?

Este trabajo analiza si las series de Contabilidad Nacional Trimestral de España son excesivamente suaves y, por lo tanto, si son realmente informativas de la evolución de la economía española a corto plazo. Mediante la utilización de las técnicas de análisis espectral se observa que las series trimestrales españolas presentan una variabilidad mayor que las de otros países de la OCDE en el intervalo de frecuencias más bajas (asociadas al comportamiento de la serie a largo plazo ) y una variabilidad menor en el intervalo de frecuencias más altas (asociadas al ruido que contiene la serie). El motivo de este comportamiento diferencial de las series trimestrales españolas se encuentra en el método utilizado por el Instituto Nacional de Estadística por estimar la señal ciclo-tendencia de los indicadores utilizados como referencia, concretamente, el conocido como filtro de líneas aéreas modificado (LAM)

Option valuation as an expectation in the complex domain: The Black-Scholes case

It is very well known that the first succesful valuation of a stock option was done by solving a deterministic partial differential equation (PDE) of the parabolic type with some complementary conditions specific for the option. In this approach, the randomness in the option value process is eliminated through a no-arbitrage argument. An alternative approach is to construct a replicating portfolio for the option. From this viewpoint the payoff function for the option is a random process which, under a new probabilistic measure, turns out to be of a special type, a martingale. Accordingly, the value of the replicating portfolio (equivalently, of the option) is calculated as an expectation, with respect to this new measure, of the discounted value of the payoff function. Since the expectation is, by definition, an integral, its calculation can be made simpler by resorting to powerful methods already available in the theory of analytic functions. In this paper we use precisely two of those techniques to find the well-known value of a European call

On the consequences of misspecifing assumptions concerning residuals distribution in a repeated measures and nonlinear mixed modelling context

In this paper we describe the results of a simulation study performed to elucidate the robustness of the Lindstrom and Bates (1990) approximation method under non-normality of the residuals, under different situations. Concerning the fixed effects, the observed coverage probabilities and the true bias and mean square error values, show that some aspects of this inferential approach are not completely reliable. When the true distribution of the residuals is asymmetrical, the true coverage is markedly lower than the nominal one. The best results are obtained for the skew normal distribution, and not for the normal distribution. On the other hand, the results are partially reversed concerning the random effects. Soybean genotypes data are used to illustrate the methods and to motivate the simulation scenarios

Impact of incorrect assumptions on the covariance structure of random effects and/or residuals in nonlinear mixed models for repeated measures data

In this paper we analyse, using Monte Carlo simulation, the possible consequences of incorrect assumptions on the true structure of the random effects covariance matrix and the true correlation pattern of residuals, over the performance of an estimation method for nonlinear mixed models. The procedure under study is the well known linearization method due to Lindstrom and Bates (1990), implemented in the nlme library of S-Plus and R. Its performance is studied in terms of bias, mean square error (MSE), and true coverage of the associated asymptotic confidence intervals. Ignoring other criteria like the convenience of avoiding over parameterised models, it seems worst to erroneously assume some structure than do not assume any structure when this would be adequate.

Spanning avalanches in the three-dimensional Gaussian random-field Ising model with metastable dynamics: Field dependence and geometrical properties

Spanning avalanches in the 3D Gaussian Random Field Ising Model (3D-GRFIM) with metastable dynamics at T=0 have been studied. Statistical analysis of the field values for which avalanches occur has enabled a Finite-Size Scaling (FSS) study of the avalanche density to be performed. Furthermore, a direct measurement of the geometrical properties of the avalanches has confirmed an earlier hypothesis that several types of spanning avalanches with two different fractal dimensions coexist at the critical point. We finally compare the phase diagram of the 3D-GRFIM with metastable dynamics with the same model in equilibrium at T=0.

Introducció de l'ensenyament en línia en Humanitats: estudis de cas sobre l'acceptació d'activitats en línia per part del professorat de llengües clàssiques

L'objectiu d'aquest article és mostrar les percepcions del professorat de llengües clàssiques (grec antic i llatí) amb relació a les activitats en línia fetes durant els cursos. L'estudi es va fer a tres països: Grècia (a tres universitats importants), Espanya (a la Universitat de Barcelona) i els Estats Units (a la Universitat de Califòrnia a Berkeley) amb la participació de trenta-tres professors. Segons el nivell d'ús i d'acceptació de les TIC i a partir de la classificació de G. Moore, vam separar els docents participants en tres grups: els conservadors, el corrent principal i els adoptadors primerencs. El fet que el grup més petit sigui el tercer mostra clarament que hi ha una necessitat de preparació i formació dels professors abans d'introduir projectes innovadors a l'aula. Com que el punt d'inici de l'aplicació d'innovació a l'aula és el professorat, els responsable dels projectes d'innovació s'haurien de centrar a ajudar-los a conscienciar-se dels canvis en els mètodes d'ensenyament i a incloure la seva opinió durant el disseny dels esmentats projectes.

Collective dynamic properties in simple crystals: Influence of the structural disorder

Collective dynamic properties in Lennard-Jones crystals are investigated by molecular dynamics simulation. The study is focused on properties such as the dynamic structure factors, the longitudinal and transverse currents and the density of states. The influence on these properties of the structural disorder is analyzed by comparing the results for one-component crystals with those for liquids and supercooled liquids at analogous conditions. The effects of species-disorder on the collective properties of binary crystals are also discussed.

Self-dynamic structure factor of dense liquids: Theory and simulation

The self-intermediate dynamic structure factor Fs(k,t) of liquid lithium near the melting temperature is calculated by molecular dynamics. The results are compared with the predictions of several theoretical approaches, paying special attention to the Lovesey model and the Wahnstrm and Sjgren mode-coupling theory. To this end the results for the Fs(k,t) second memory function predicted by both models are compared with the ones calculated from the simulations.

Periodic points of holomorphic maps via Lefschetz numbers

In this paper we study the set of periods of holomorphic maps on compact manifolds, using the periodic Lefschetz numbers introduced by Dold and Llibre, which can be computed from the homology class of the map. We show that these numbers contain information about the existence of periodic points of a given period; and, if we assume the map to be transversal, then they give us the exact number of such periodic orbits. We apply this result to the complex projective space of dimension n and to some special type of Hopf surfaces, partially characterizing their set of periods. In the first case we also show that any holomorphic map of CP(n) of degree greater than one has infinitely many distinct periodic orbits, hence generalizing a theorem of Fornaess and Sibony. We then characterize the set of periods of a holomorphic map on the Riemann sphere, hence giving an alternative proof of Baker's theorem.