Effects of Study Area Size on Geographic Characterizations of Health Events: Prostate Cancer Incidence in Southern New England, USA, 1994-1998.

ABSTRACT : BACKGROUND : We consider how representations of geographic variation in prostate cancer incidence across Southern New England, USA may be affected by selection of study area and/or properties of the statistical analysis. METHOD : A spatial scan statistic was used to monitor geographic variation among 35,167 incident prostate cancer cases diagnosed in Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island from 1994 to 1998, in relation to the 1990 populations of men 20+ years of age living in that region. Results from the combined-states analysis were compared to those from single-states. Impact of scanning procedures set to examine up to 50% or no more than10% of at-risk populations also was evaluated. RESULTS : With scanning set to 50%, 5 locations in the combined-states analysis were identified with markedly distinct incidence rates. Fewer than expected cases were estimated for nearly all Connecticut, Rhode Island and West Central Massachusetts, whereas census tracts on and around Cape Cod, and areas of Southwestern Connecticut and adjacent to greater Boston were estimated to have yielded more than expected incidence. Results of single-state analyses exhibited several discrepancies from the combined-states analysis. More conservative scanning found many more locations with varying incidence, but discrepancies between the combined- and single-state analysis were fewer. CONCLUSION : It is important to acknowledge the conditional nature of spatial analyses and carefully consider whether a true cluster of events is identified or artifact stemming from selection of study area size and/or scanning properties.

Chemical composition of Lake George (New York) iron-manganese nodules and underlying sediment

Lake George, New York, is the site of a new discovery of iron-manganese nodules. These nodules occur at a water depth between 21 and 36 m along a stretch of lake extending for about 5 mi north and south of the Narrows, a constricted island-dotted area which separates the north and south Lake George basins. Nodules occur on or within the uppermost 5 cm of a varved glacial clay. Some areas are solidly floored with a carpet of nodules in areas where active currents keep the nodules exposed. The nodules form around nuclei which consist of clay and less commonly of spore capsules, detrital particles, or bark. By their shape we recognize three types of nodules: spherical, discoidal, and lumps. On X-ray examination all nodules show small goethite peaks; in one nodule the manganese mineral birnessite was identified. Manganese and part of the iron appears to be in X-ray amorphous ferromanganese compounds. The Lake George nodules are enriched in iron with respect to marine nodules but are lower in manganese. They have a higher trace element concentration than nodules from other known freshwater lake occurrences, but a lower concentration than marine nodules.

Isotopic composition of ground ice, ebullition gases and thermokarst lake water, North America

Thermokarst lakes are thought to have been an important source of methane (CH4) during the last deglaciation when atmospheric CH4 concentrations increased rapidly. Here we demonstrate that meltwater from permafrost ice serves as an H source to CH4 production in thermokarst lakes, allowing for region-specific reconstructions of dD-CH4 emissions from Siberian and North American lakes. dD CH4 reflects regionally varying dD values of precipitation incorporated into ground ice at the time of its formation. Late Pleistocene-aged permafrost ground ice was the dominant H source to CH4 production in primary thermokarst lakes, whereas Holocene-aged permafrost ground ice contributed H to CH4 production in later generation lakes. We found that Alaskan thermokarst lake dD-CH4 was higher (-334 ± 17 per mil) than Siberian lake dD-CH4 (-381 ± 18 per mil). Weighted mean dD CH4 values for Beringian lakes ranged from -385 per mil to -382 per mil over the deglacial period. Bottom-up estimates suggest that Beringian thermokarst lakes contributed 15 ± 4 Tg CH4 /yr to the atmosphere during the Younger Dryas and 25 ± 5 Tg CH4 /yr during the Preboreal period. These estimates are supported by independent, top-down isotope mass balance calculations based on ice core dD-CH4 and d13C-CH4 records. Both approaches suggest that thermokarst lakes and boreal wetlands together were important sources of deglacial CH4.

(Table 1) Estimated e-Nd(0) input calculated using the relative fraction of ODP Hole 105-647A amphibole grains originated from different provinces of the North America

Many marine radiogenic isotope records show both spatial and temporal variations, reflecting both the degree of mixing of distinct sources in the oceans and changes in the distribution of chemical weathering on the continents. However, changes in weathering and transport processes may themselves affect the composition of radiogenic isotopes released into seawater. The provenance of physically weathered material in the Labrador Sea, constrained through the use of Ar-Ar ages of individual detrital minerals, has been used to estimate the relative contributions of chemically weathered terranes releasing radiogenic isotopes into the Labrador Sea. A simple box-model approach for balancing observed Nd-isotope variations has been used to constrain the relative importance of localised input in the Labrador Sea, and the subsequent mixing of Labrador Sea Water into North Atlantic Deep-Water. The long-term pattern of erosion and deep-water formation around the North Atlantic seems to have been a relatively stable feature since 1.5 Ma, although there has been a dramatic shift in the nature of physical and chemical weathering affecting the release of Hf and Pb isotopes. The modelled Nd isotopes imply a relative decrease in water mass advection into the Labrador Sea between 2.4 and 1.5 Ma, accompanied by a decrease in the rate of overturning, possibly caused by an increased freshwater input into the Labrador Sea.