Large-scale dynamics associated with clustering of extratropical cyclones affecting Western Europe

Some recent winters in Western Europe have been characterized by the occurrence of multiple extratropical cyclones following a similar path. The occurrence of such cyclone clusters leads to large socio-economic impacts due to damaging winds, storm surges, and floods. Recent studies have statistically characterized the clustering of extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic and Europe and hypothesized potential physical mechanisms responsible for their formation. Here we analyze 4 months characterized by multiple cyclones over Western Europe (February 1990, January 1993, December 1999, and January 2007). The evolution of the eddy driven jet stream, Rossby wave-breaking, and upstream/downstream cyclone development are investigated to infer the role of the large-scale flow and to determine if clustered cyclones are related to each other. Results suggest that optimal conditions for the occurrence of cyclone clusters are provided by a recurrent extension of an intensified eddy driven jet toward Western Europe lasting at least 1 week. Multiple Rossby wave-breaking occurrences on both the poleward and equatorward flanks of the jet contribute to the development of these anomalous large-scale conditions. The analysis of the daily weather charts reveals that upstream cyclone development (secondary cyclogenesis, where new cyclones are generated on the trailing fronts of mature cyclones) is strongly related to cyclone clustering, with multiple cyclones developing on a single jet streak. The present analysis permits a deeper understanding of the physical reasons leading to the occurrence of cyclone families over the North Atlantic, enabling a better estimation of the associated cumulative risk over Europe.

Energy-balance mechanisms underlying consistent large-scale temperature responses in warm and cold climates

Climate simulations show consistent large-scale temperature responses including amplified land–ocean contrast, high-latitude/low-latitude contrast, and changes in seasonality in response to year-round forcing, in both warm and cold climates, and these responses are proportional and nearly linear across multiple climate states. We examine the possibility that a small set of common mechanisms controls these large-scale responses using a simple energy-balance model to decompose the temperature changes shown in multiple lgm and abrupt4 × CO 2 simulations from the CMIP5 archive. Changes in the individual components of the energy balance are broadly consistent across the models. Although several components are involved in the overall temperature responses, surface downward clear-sky longwave radiation is the most important component driving land–ocean contrast and high-latitude amplification in both warm and cold climates. Surface albedo also plays a significant role in promoting high-latitude amplification in both climates and in intensifying the land–ocean contrast in the warm climate case. The change in seasonality is a consequence of the changes in land–ocean and high-latitude/low-latitude contrasts rather than an independent temperature response. This is borne out by the fact that no single component stands out as being the major cause of the change in seasonality, and the relative importance of individual components is different in cold and warm climates.

Propagation of the Madden–Julian Oscillation and scale interaction with the diurnal cycle in a high-resolution GCM

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the chief source of tropical intra-seasonal variability, but is simulated poorly by most state-of-the-art GCMs. Common errors include a lack of eastward propagation at the correct frequency and zonal extent, and too small a ratio of eastward- to westward-propagating variability. Here it is shown that HiGEM, a high-resolution GCM, simulates a very realistic MJO with approximately the correct spatial and temporal scale. Many MJO studies in GCMs are limited to diagnostics which average over a latitude band around the equator, allowing an analysis of the MJO’s structure in time and longitude only. In this study a wider range of diagnostics is applied. It is argued that such an approach is necessary for a comprehensive analysis of a model’s MJO. The standard analysis of Wheeler and Hendon (Mon Wea Rev 132(8):1917–1932, 2004; WH04) is applied to produce composites, which show a realistic spatial structure in the MJO envelopes but for the timing of the peak precipitation in the inter-tropical convergence zone, which bifurcates the MJO signal. Further diagnostics are developed to analyse the MJO’s episodic nature and the “MJO inertia” (the tendency to remain in the same WH04 phase from one day to the next). HiGEM favours phases 2, 3, 6 and 7; has too much MJO inertia; and dies out too frequently in phase 3. Recent research has shown that a key feature of the MJO is its interaction with the diurnal cycle over the Maritime Continent. This interaction is present in HiGEM but is unrealistically weak.

The Cognitive Behaviour Therapy Scale for Children and Young People (CBTS-CYP): development and psychometric properties

Background: There is increased interest in developing training in cognitive behaviour therapy (CBT) with children and young people. However, the assessment of clinical competence has relied upon the use of measures such as the Cognitive Therapy Scale-Revised (CTSR: Blackburn et al., 2001) which has been validated to assess competence with adults. The appropriateness of this measure to assess competence when working with children and young people has been questioned. Aim: This paper describes the development and initial evaluation of the Cognitive Behaviour Therapy Scale for Children and Young People (CBTSCYP) developed specifically to assess competence in CBT with children and young people. Method: A cross section of child CBT practitioners (n = 61) were consulted to establish face validity. Internal reliability, convergent validity and discriminative ability were assessed in two studies. In the first, 12 assessors independently rated a single video using both the Cognitive Behaviour Therapy Scale for Children and Young People (CBTS-CYP) and Cognitive Therapy Scale-Revised (CTS-Revised: Blackburn et al., 2001). In the second, 48 different recordings of CBT undertaken with children and young people were rated on both the CBTS-CYP and CTS-R. Results: Face validity and internal reliability of the CBTS-CYP were high, and convergent validity with the CTS-R was good. The CBTS-CYP compared well with the CTSR in discriminative ability. Conclusion: The CBTS-CYP provides an appropriate way of assessing competence in using CBT with children and young people. Further work is required to assess robustness with younger children and the impact of group training in reducing interrater variations.

Global scale transcriptome analysis of Arabidopsis embryogenesis in vitro

Background Somatic embryogenesis (SE) in plants is a process by which embryos are generated directly from somatic cells, rather than from the fused products of male and female gametes. Despite the detailed expression analysis of several somatic-to-embryonic marker genes, a comprehensive understanding of SE at a molecular level is still lacking. The present study was designed to generate high resolution transcriptome datasets for early SE providing the way for future research to understand the underlying molecular mechanisms that regulate this process. We sequenced Arabidopsis thaliana somatic embryos collected from three distinct developmental time-points (5, 10 and 15 d after in vitro culture) using the Illumina HiSeq 2000 platform. Results This study yielded a total of 426,001,826 sequence reads mapped to 26,520 genes in the A. thaliana reference genome. Analysis of embryonic cultures after 5 and 10 d showed differential expression of 1,195 genes; these included 778 genes that were more highly expressed after 5 d as compared to 10 d. Moreover, 1,718 genes were differentially expressed in embryonic cultures between 10 and 15 d. Our data also showed at least eight different expression patterns during early SE; the majority of genes are transcriptionally more active in embryos after 5 d. Comparison of transcriptomes derived from somatic embryos and leaf tissues revealed that at least 4,951 genes are transcriptionally more active in embryos than in the leaf; increased expression of genes involved in DNA cytosine methylation and histone deacetylation were noted in embryogenic tissues. In silico expression analysis based on microarray data found that approximately 5% of these genes are transcriptionally more active in somatic embryos than in actively dividing callus and non-dividing leaf tissues. Moreover, this identified 49 genes expressed at a higher level in somatic embryos than in other tissues. This included several genes with unknown function, as well as others related to oxidative and osmotic stress, and auxin signalling. Conclusions The transcriptome information provided here will form the foundation for future research on genetic and epigenetic control of plant embryogenesis at a molecular level. In follow-up studies, these data could be used to construct a regulatory network for SE; the genes more highly expressed in somatic embryos than in vegetative tissues can be considered as potential candidates to validate these networks.

Assessing the ability of rural agrarian areas to provide Cultural Ecosystem Services (CES): a Multi Scale Social Indicator Framework (MSIF)

Assessing the ways in which rural agrarian areas provide Cultural Ecosystem Services (CES) is proving difficult to achieve. This research has developed an innovative methodological approach named as Multi Scale Indicator Framework (MSIF) for capturing the CES embedded into the rural agrarian areas. This framework reconciles a literature review with a trans-disciplinary participatory workshop. Both of these sources reveal that societal preferences diverge upon judgemental criteria which in turn relate to different visual concepts that can be drawn from analysing attributes, elements, features and characteristics of rural areas. We contend that it is now possible to list a group of possible multi scale indicators for stewardship, diversity and aesthetics. These results might also be of use for improving any existing European indicators frameworks by also including CES. This research carries major implications for policy at different levels of governance, as it makes possible to target and monitor policy instruments to the physical rural settings so that cultural dimensions are adequately considered. There is still work to be developed on regional specific values and thresholds for each criteria and its indicator set. In practical terms, by developing the conceptual design within a common framework as described in this paper, a considerable step forward towards the inclusion of the cultural dimension in European wide assessments can be made.