Associations between elevated atmospheric temperature and human mortality: a critical review of the literature

The effects of the anomalously warm European summer of 2003 highlighted the importance of understanding the relationship between elevated atmospheric temperature and human mortality. This review is an extension of the brief evidence examining this relationship provided in the IPCC’s Assessment Reports. A comprehensive and critical review of the literature is presented, which highlights avenues for further research, and the respective merits and limitations of the methods used to analyse the relationships. In contrast to previous reviews that concentrate on the epidemiological evidence, this review acknowledges the inter-disciplinary nature of the topic and examines the evidence presented in epidemiological, environmental health, and climatological journals. As such, present temperature–mortality relationships are reviewed, followed by a discussion of how these are likely to change under climate change scenarios. The importance of uncertainty, and methods to include it in future work, are also considered.

Some transition metal complexes derived from mono- and di-ethynyl perfluorobenzenes

Transition metal alkynyl complexes containing perfluoroaryl groups have been prepared directly from trimethylsilyl-protected mono- and di-ethynyl perfluoroarenes by simple desilylation/metallation reaction sequences. Reactions between Me3SiC CC6F5 and RuCl(dppe)Cp'[Cp' = Cp, Cp*] in the presence of KF in MeOH give the monoruthenium complexes Ru(C CC6F5)(dppe)Cp'[Cp' = Cp (2); Cp* (3)], which are related to the known compound Ru(C CC6F5)(PPh3)(2)Cp (1). Treatment of Me3SiC CC6F5 with Pt-2(mu-dppm)(2)Cl-2 in the presence of NaOMe in MeOH gave the bis(alkynyl) complex Pt-2(mu-dppm)(2)(C CC6F5)(2) (4). The Pd(0)/Cu(I)-catalysed reactions between Au(C CC6F5)(PPh3) and Mo( CBr)(CO)(2) Tp* [Tp* = hydridotris(3.5-dimethylpyrazoyl)borate], Co-3(mu(3)-CBr)(mu-dppm)(CO)(7) or IC CFc [Fc = (eta(5)-C5H4)FeCp] afford Mo( CC CC6F5)(CO)(2)Tp* (5), Co-3(mu 3-CC CC6F5)(mu-dppm)(CO)(7) (6) and FcC CC CC6F5 (7), respectively. The diruthenium complexes 1,4-{Cp'(PP)RuC C}(2)C6F4 [(PP)Cp'=(PPh3)(2)Cp (8); (dppe)Cp (9); (dppe)Cp* (10)] are prepared from 1,4-(Me3SiC C)(2)C6F4 in a manner similar to that described for the monoruthenium complexes 1-3. The non-fluorinated complexes 1,4-{Cp'(PP)RuC C}(2)C6H4 [(PP)Cp' = (PPh3)(2)Cp (11); ( dppe) Cp (12); ( dppe) Cp* (13)], prepared for comparison, are obtained from 1,4-(Me3SiC C)(2)C6H4. Spectro-electrochemical studies of the ruthenium aryl and arylene alkynyl complexes 2-3 and 8-13, together with DFT-based computational studies on suitable model systems, indicate that perfluorination of the aromatic ring has little effect on the electronic structures of these compounds, and that the frontier orbitals have appreciable diethynylphenylene character. Molecular structure determinations are reported for the fluoroaromatic complexes 1, 2, 3, 6 and 10.

Effect of changing the amount and type of fat and carbohydrate on insulin sensitivity and cardiovascular risk: the RISCK (Reading, Imperial, Surrey, Cambridge, and Kings) trial

Background: Insulin sensitivity (Si) is improved by weight loss and exercise, but the effects of the replacement of saturated fatty acids (SFAs) with monounsaturated fatty acids (MUFAs) or carbohydrates of high glycemic index (HGI) or low glycemic index (LGI) are uncertain. Objective: We conducted a dietary intervention trial to study these effects in participants at risk of developing metabolic syndrome. Design: We conducted a 5-center, parallel design, randomized controlled trial [RISCK (Reading, Imperial, Surrey, Cambridge, and Kings)]. The primary and secondary outcomes were changes in Si (measured by using an intravenous glucose tolerance test) and cardiovascular risk factors. Measurements were made after 4 wk of a high-SFA and HGI (HS/HGI) diet and after a 24-wk intervention with HS/HGI (reference), high-MUFA and HGI (HM/HGI), HM and LGI (HM/LGI), low-fat and HGI (LF/HGI), and LF and LGI (LF/LGI) diets. Results: We analyzed data for 548 of 720 participants who were randomly assigned to treatment. The median Si was 2.7 × 10−4 mL · μU−1 · min−1 (interquartile range: 2.0, 4.2 × 10−4 mL · μU−1 · min−1), and unadjusted mean percentage changes (95% CIs) after 24 wk treatment (P = 0.13) were as follows: for the HS/HGI group, −4% (−12.7%, 5.3%); for the HM/HGI group, 2.1% (−5.8%, 10.7%); for the HM/LGI group, −3.5% (−10.6%, 4.3%); for the LF/HGI group, −8.6% (−15.4%, −1.1%); and for the LF/LGI group, 9.9% (2.4%, 18.0%). Total cholesterol (TC), LDL cholesterol, and apolipoprotein B concentrations decreased with SFA reduction. Decreases in TC and LDL-cholesterol concentrations were greater with LGI. Fat reduction lowered HDL cholesterol and apolipoprotein A1 and B concentrations. Conclusions: This study did not support the hypothesis that isoenergetic replacement of SFAs with MUFAs or carbohydrates has a favorable effect on Si. Lowering GI enhanced reductions in TC and LDL-cholesterol concentrations in subjects, with tentative evidence of improvements in Si in the LF-treatment group. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as ISRCTN29111298.

Sea-breeze modification of the growth of a marine internal boundary layer

A numerical mesoscale model is used to make a high-resolution simulation of the marine boundary layer in the Persian Gulf, during conditions of offshore flow from Saudi Arabia. A marine internal boundary layer (MIBL) and a sea-breeze circulation (SBC) are found to co-exist. The sea breeze develops in the mid-afternoon, at which time its front is displaced several tens of kilometres offshore. Between the coast and the sea-breeze system, the MIBL that occurs is consistent with a picture described in the existing literature. However, the MIBL is perturbed by the SBC, the boundary layer deepening significantly seaward of the sea-breeze front. Our analysis suggests that this strong, localized deepening is not a direct consequence of frontal uplift, but rather that the immediate cause is the retardation of the prevailing, low-level offshore wind by the SBC. The simulated boundary-layer development can be accounted for by using a simple 1D Lagrangian model of growth driven by the surface heat flux. This model is obtained as a straightforward modification of an established MIBL analytic growth model.

Numerical modeling of the propagation environment in the atmospheric boundary layer over the Persian Gulf

Strong vertical gradients at the top of the atmospheric boundary layer affect the propagation of electromagnetic waves and can produce radar ducts. A three-dimensional, time-dependent, nonhydrostatic numerical model was used to simulate the propagation environment in the atmosphere over the Persian Gulf when aircraft observations of ducting had been made. A division of the observations into high- and low-wind cases was used as a framework for the simulations. Three sets of simulations were conducted with initial conditions of varying degrees of idealization and were compared with the observations taken in the Ship Antisubmarine Warfare Readiness/Effectiveness Measuring (SHAREM-115) program. The best results occurred with the initialization based on a sounding taken over the coast modified by the inclusion of data on low-level atmospheric conditions over the Gulf waters. The development of moist, cool, stable marine internal boundary layers (MIBL) in air flowing from land over the waters of the Gulf was simulated. The MIBLs were capped by temperature inversions and associated lapses of humidity and refractivity. The low-wind MIBL was shallower and the gradients at its top were sharper than in the high-wind case, in agreement with the observations. Because it is also forced by land–sea contrasts, a sea-breeze circulation frequently occurs in association with the MIBL. The size, location, and internal structure of the sea-breeze circulation were realistically simulated. The gradients of temperature and humidity that bound the MIBL cause perturbations in the refractivity distribution that, in turn, lead to trapping layers and ducts. The existence, location, and surface character of the ducts were well captured. Horizontal variations in duct characteristics due to the sea-breeze circulation were also evident. The simulations successfully distinguished between high- and low-wind occasions, a notable feature of the SHAREM-115 observations. The modeled magnitudes of duct depth and strength, although leaving scope for improvement, were most encouraging.