The diversity of postharvest losses in cassava value chains in selected developing countries

The extent of physical and economic postharvest losses at different stages of cassava value chains has been estimated in four countries that differ considerably in the way cassava is cultivated, processed and consumed and in the relationships and linkages among the value chain actors. Ghana incurs by far the highest losses because a high proportion of roots reach the consumers in the fresh form. Most losses occur at the last stage of the value chain. In Nigeria and Vietnam processors incur most of the losses while in Thailand most losses occur during harvesting. Poorer countries incur higher losses despite their capacity to absorb sub-standard products (therefore transforming part of the physical losses into economic losses) and less strict buyer standards. In monetary terms the impact of losses is particularly severe in Ghana and estimated at about half a billion US dollar per annum while in the other countries it is at the most about USD 50 million. This comparison shows that there are no “one-size-fits-all" solutions for addressing postharvest losses but rather these must be tailor-made to the specific characteristics of the different value chains.

The prediction of seasonal and inter-annual climate variations and their impacts on the water resources in the eastern seaboard of Thailand

The research of this thesis dissertation covers developments and applications of short-and long-term climate predictions. The short-term prediction emphasizes monthly and seasonal climate, i.e. forecasting from up to the next month over a season to up to a year or so. The long-term predictions pertain to the analysis of inter-annual- and decadal climate variations over the whole 21st century. These two climate prediction methods are validated and applied in the study area, namely, Khlong Yai (KY) water basin located in the eastern seaboard of Thailand which is a major industrial zone of the country and which has been suffering from severe drought and water shortage in recent years. Since water resources are essential for the further industrial development in this region, a thorough analysis of the potential climate change with its subsequent impact on the water supply in the area is at the heart of this thesis research. The short-term forecast of the next-season climate, such as temperatures and rainfall, offers a potential general guideline for water management and reservoir operation. To that avail, statistical models based on autoregressive techniques, i.e., AR-, ARIMA- and ARIMAex-, which includes additional external regressors, and multiple linear regression- (MLR) models, are developed and applied in the study region. Teleconnections between ocean states and the local climate are investigated and used as extra external predictors in the ARIMAex- and the MLR-model and shown to enhance the accuracy of the short-term predictions significantly. However, as the ocean state – local climate teleconnective relationships provide only a one- to four-month ahead lead time, the ocean state indices can support only a one-season-ahead forecast. Hence, GCM- climate predictors are also suggested as an additional predictor-set for a more reliable and somewhat longer short-term forecast. For the preparation of “pre-warning” information for up-coming possible future climate change with potential adverse hydrological impacts in the study region, the long-term climate prediction methodology is applied. The latter is based on the downscaling of climate predictions from several single- and multi-domain GCMs, using the two well-known downscaling methods SDSM and LARS-WG and a newly developed MLR-downscaling technique that allows the incorporation of a multitude of monthly or daily climate predictors from one- or several (multi-domain) parent GCMs. The numerous downscaling experiments indicate that the MLR- method is more accurate than SDSM and LARS-WG in predicting the recent past 20th-century (1971-2000) long-term monthly climate in the region. The MLR-model is, consequently, then employed to downscale 21st-century GCM- climate predictions under SRES-scenarios A1B, A2 and B1. However, since the hydrological watershed model requires daily-scale climate input data, a new stochastic daily climate generator is developed to rescale monthly observed or predicted climate series to daily series, while adhering to the statistical and geospatial distributional attributes of observed (past) daily climate series in the calibration phase. Employing this daily climate generator, 30 realizations of future daily climate series from downscaled monthly GCM-climate predictor sets are produced and used as input in the SWAT- distributed watershed model, to simulate future streamflow and other hydrological water budget components in the study region in a multi-realization manner. In addition to a general examination of the future changes of the hydrological regime in the KY-basin, potential future changes of the water budgets of three main reservoirs in the basin are analysed, as these are a major source of water supply in the study region. The results of the long-term 21st-century downscaled climate predictions provide evidence that, compared with the past 20th-reference period, the future climate in the study area will be more extreme, particularly, for SRES A1B. Thus, the temperatures will be higher and exhibit larger fluctuations. Although the future intensity of the rainfall is nearly constant, its spatial distribution across the region is partially changing. There is further evidence that the sequential rainfall occurrence will be decreased, so that short periods of high intensities will be followed by longer dry spells. This change in the sequential rainfall pattern will also lead to seasonal reductions of the streamflow and seasonal changes (decreases) of the water storage in the reservoirs. In any case, these predicted future climate changes with their hydrological impacts should encourage water planner and policy makers to develop adaptation strategies to properly handle the future water supply in this area, following the guidelines suggested in this study.

Diversity and nutritional properties of Pakistani dates: implications for sustainable value chain and decent living perspectives of rural households

Date palm (Phoenix dactylifera L.) occupies almost three percent of the total worldwide cultivated area, with an annual production of seven million tonnes (t). Pakistan is an ideal place for the cultivation of date palm due to its sandy loam soil and semi-arid climate. In 2012, Pakistan produced 600,000 t of dates, on an area of 95,000 ha. Baluchistan province is the country’s top date producer, followed by Sindh, Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) provinces. More than 300 date varieties are known to exist in Pakistan and some commercially important cultivars are: Karbalaen, Aseel, Muzawati, Fasli, Begum Jhangi, Hillawi, Dashtiari, Sabzo, Koharaba, Jaan Swore, Rabai and Dhakki. Six districts from the four provinces of Pakistan (Jhang, Muzaffargarh and Bahawalpur (Punjab), Dera Ismail Khan (KPK), Khairpur (Sindh) and Panjgur (Baluchistan)) with largest area under date palm cultivation were selected to conduct socio-economic surveys including the income sources of date palm growers. A structured questionnaire with open-ended and closed questions was used for face-to-face interviews of 170 date palm growers. At each location after selection of a first farmer through a local guide, the former was requested to provide names and addresses of three other date growers in his area. From these three names, one was randomly selected for the next sampling. Additionally, date palm fronds and fruits of all available cultivars were collected for morphological and nutritional analyses. Soil samples were collected from the groves for subsequent chemical and physical analyses. Almost all farmers used dates as a food item for their families and some were using low quality dates as a feed for their livestock. Apart from dates, other date palm components (trunk, spadix, frond, inflorescence and seed) were used by date palm growers as a raw material for making many by-products for their families. Date palm had a major contribution in the income of households, 24% received 91-100% of their income from date palms. More than half of the surveyed farmers had date palm groves, but scattered plantations, home gardens and intercropping systems with cereal and other fruits were also present. Dhakki, Muzawati, Aseel, and Karbalaen were the most important commercial cultivars grown in the provinces of KPK, Baluchistan, and Sindh. Aseel, Karoch, Haleni, Karbalaen, and Muzawati cultivars had the most firm fruit and good total soluble sugar, calcium and magnesium contents. The amount of magnesium found in dates of studied cultivars ranged from 0.143 to 0.876 mg g-1. A great variation in frond morphology was recorded among the cultivars. Fruit length and fruit weight was highest in Dhakki date, making it visually more attractive for customers in addition to its good nutritional properties. The seed weight of the studied cultivars ranged from 0.7-2.0 g, while Desi dates had largest seed, making them less attractive for marketing. However, in terms of nutritional value and fruit size, most of the investigated varieties can compete with globally important commercial dates.

A FRAMEWORK FOR ACHIEVING LIFECYCLE VALUE IN AEROSPACE PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT

Creation of lifecycle value - a balance of performance with cost and other attributes - represents a challenge for the development of aerospace products in the twenty-first century. This paper examines the concept of lifecycle value that stems from existing approaches of value management and analysis, lifecycle costing, and systems engineering. To ascertain common characteristics of lifecycle value creation, case studies were done for four aircraft programs: F/A- 18E/F, JAS 39 Gripen, F-16C/D, and B-777. A lifecycle value creation framework is introduced, comprised of three phases: value identification, value proposition, value delivery. Based upon observed practices in the four case studies, six value creation attributes were identified. Capability maturity models for the six attributes and three value creation phases are presented. The resulting framework represents a starting point for programs seeking to create lifecycle value for aerospace products.

A Proposal for Enterprise Value Phase of the Lean Aerospace Initiative

The Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) submits this proposal for the Enterprise Value Phase of the Lean Aerospace Initiative (LAI) in response to the October 9, 2002 Request for Proposal (RFP) F33615-02-2-5501 from the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL/MLKT), Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, Ohio. This proposal addresses the conduct of the LAI as set forth in the Enterprise Value Phase Concept of Operations (final draft dated 5 June 2002. The creation of this Enterprise Value Phase Concept of Operations (ConOps) was the result of extensive interaction among all stakeholders in the LAI consortium. The proposed products and research topics have been developed by the MIT LAI team based on this extended interaction with the Lean Aerospace Initiative consortium members during the concept of operations development. This proposal is in consonance with the Enterprise Value Phase vision, and mission as set forth in the concept of operations so as to meet stakeholder needs to achieve the goals and deliverables desired, prioritized to fit available funding.

Lifecycle Value Framework for Tactical Aircraft Product Development

Due to a dramatic reduction in defense procurement, the benchmark for developing new defense systems today is performance at an affordable cost. In an attempt to encircle a more holistic perspective of value, lifecycle value has evolved as a concept within the Lean Aerospace Initiative, LAI. The implication of this is development of products incorporating lifecycle and long-term focus instead of a shortsighted cost cutting focus. The interest to reduce total cost of ownership while still improving performance, availability, and sustainability, other dimensions taken into account within the lifecycle value approach, falls well within this context. Several factors prevent enterprises from having a holistic perspective during product development. Some important aspects are increased complexity of the products and significant technological uncertainty. The combination of complexity in system design and the limits of individual human comprehension typically prevent a best value solution to be envisioned. The purpose of this research was to examine relative contributions in product development and determine factors that significantly promote abilities to consider and achieve lifecycle value. This paper contributes a maturity matrix based on important practices and lessons learned through extensive interview based case studies of three tactical aircraft programs, including experiences from more than 100 interviews.

Measuring Value in Product Development

“What is value in product development?” is the key question of this paper. The answer is critical to the creation of lean in product development. By knowing how much value is added by product development (PD) activities, decisions can be more rationally made about how to allocate resources, such as time and money.

Output from the 1998 Product Development Value Stream Workshop: A Framework for Understanding Information Flow in the Product Development Process

The descriptions below and the attached diagrams are outputs of the 1998 LAI Product Development Focus Team workshop on the Value Chain in Product Development. A working group at that workshop was asked to model the product development process: in terms of the phases of product development and their interfaces, boundaries and outputs. Their work has proven to be generally useful to LAI researchers and industry members, and so is formalized here.

Value Creation in Product Development

-Definitions -Value concepts -Value creation framework -Value creation and product development