Bayesian methods for estimation, optimization and experimental design

Mathematical models often contain parameters that need to be calibrated from measured data. The emergence of efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods has made the Bayesian approach a standard tool in quantifying the uncertainty in the parameters. With MCMC, the parameter estimation problem can be solved in a fully statistical manner, and the whole distribution of the parameters can be explored, instead of obtaining point estimates and using, e.g., Gaussian approximations. In this thesis, MCMC methods are applied to parameter estimation problems in chemical reaction engineering, population ecology, and climate modeling. Motivated by the climate model experiments, the methods are developed further to make them more suitable for problems where the model is computationally intensive. After the parameters are estimated, one can start to use the model for various tasks. Two such tasks are studied in this thesis: optimal design of experiments, where the task is to design the next measurements so that the parameter uncertainty is minimized, and model-based optimization, where a model-based quantity, such as the product yield in a chemical reaction model, is optimized. In this thesis, novel ways to perform these tasks are developed, based on the output of MCMC parameter estimation. A separate topic is dynamical state estimation, where the task is to estimate the dynamically changing model state, instead of static parameters. For example, in numerical weather prediction, an estimate of the state of the atmosphere must constantly be updated based on the recently obtained measurements. In this thesis, a novel hybrid state estimation method is developed, which combines elements from deterministic and random sampling methods.

Design Aspects of Megawatt-Range Direct-Driven Permanent MagnetWind Generators

Direct-driven permanent magnet synchronous generator is one of the most promising topologies for megawatt-range wind power applications. The rotational speed of the direct-driven generator is very low compared with the traditional electrical machines. The low rotational speed requires high torque to produce megawatt-range power. The special features of the direct-driven generators caused by the low speed and high torque are discussed in this doctoral thesis. Low speed and high torque set high demands on the torque quality. The cogging torque and the load torque ripple must be as low as possible to prevent mechanical failures. In this doctoral thesis, various methods to improve the torque quality are compared with each other. The rotor surface shaping, magnet skew, magnet shaping, and the asymmetrical placement of magnets and stator slots are studied not only by means of torque quality, but also the effects on the electromagnetic performance and manufacturability of the machine are discussed. The heat transfer of the direct-driven generator must be designed to handle the copper losses of the stator winding carrying high current density and to keep the temperature of the magnets low enough. The cooling system of the direct-driven generator applying the doubly radial air cooling with numerous radial cooling ducts was modeled with a lumped-parameter-based thermal network. The performance of the cooling system was discussed during the steady and transient states. The effect of the number and width of radial cooling ducts was explored. The large number of radial cooling ducts drastically increases the impact of the stack end area effects, because the stator stack consists of numerous substacks. The effects of the radial cooling ducts on the effective axial length of the machine were studied by analyzing the crosssection of the machine in the axial direction. The method to compensate the magnet end area leakage was considered. The effect of the cooling ducts and the stack end area effects on the no-load voltages and inductances of the machine were explored by using numerical analysis tools based on the three-dimensional finite element method. The electrical efficiency of the permanent magnet machine with different control methods was estimated analytically over the whole speed and torque range. The electrical efficiencies achieved with the most common control methods were compared with each other. The stator voltage increase caused by the armature reaction was analyzed. The effect of inductance saturation as a function of load current was implemented to the analytical efficiency calculation.

A design and a prototype for a mobile information service for tourists

Tourism is one of the biggest industry branches with billions of tourists traveling every year around the world. Therefore, solutions providing tourist information have to be up to date with both changes in the industry and the world’s technological progress. The aim of this thesis is to present a design and a prototype of a tourist mobile service which is individual-oriented, cost-free for the end user, and secure. On the information providers’ side, the solution is implemented as a Webbased database. The end users access the information through a Bluetooth application on their mobile devices. The Bluetooth-based solution allows to avoid any costs for the end users, that is tourists. The study shows that, even with small data transfers, the tourists could save significantly when compared to possible roaming charges for data transfer. Also, the proposed mobile service is not intrusive, as it is provided through an application installed by tourists voluntarily on their mobile devices. Through design and implementation this work shows that it is possible to build a system which can be used to provide information services to tourists through mobile phones. The work achieved a successful ongoing synchronization between the client and the server databases. Implementation and usage were limited to smart phones only, as they provide better technological support for the solution having features like maps, GPS, Wi-Fi, Bluetooth and Databases. Moreover, the design of this system shows how Bluetooth technology can be used effectively as a means of communication while minimizing its shortcomings and risks, such as security, by bypassing Bluetooth server service discovery protocol (SDP) and connecting directly to the device. Apart from showing the design and implementation of the end-user costfree mobile information service, the results of this work also highlight the possible business opportunities to the provider of the service.

Design and development of the architecture of an agricultural mobile robot

Parameters such as tolerance, scale and agility utilized in data sampling for using in Precision Agriculture required an expressive number of researches and development of techniques and instruments for automation. It is highlighted the employment of methodologies in remote sensing used in coupled to a Geographic Information System (GIS), adapted or developed for agricultural use. Aiming this, the application of Agricultural Mobile Robots is a strong tendency, mainly in the European Union, the USA and Japan. In Brazil, researches are necessary for the development of robotics platforms, serving as a basis for semi-autonomous and autonomous navigation systems. The aim of this work is to describe the project of an experimental platform for data acquisition in field for the study of the spatial variability and development of agricultural robotics technologies to operate in agricultural environments. The proposal is based on a systematization of scientific work to choose the design parameters utilized for the construction of the model. The kinematic study of the mechanical structure was made by the virtual prototyping process, based on modeling and simulating of the tension applied in frame, using the.

Economic optimization method to design telescope irrigation of multiples outlets

In this study is presented an economic optimization method to design telescope irrigation laterals (multidiameter) with regular spaced outlets. The proposed analytical hydraulic solution was validated by means of a pipeline composed of three different diameters. The minimum acquisition cost of the telescope pipeline was determined by an ideal arrangement of lengths and respective diameters for each one of the three segments. The mathematical optimization method based on the Lagrange multipliers provides a strategy for finding the maximum or minimum of a function subject to certain constraints. In this case, the objective function describes the acquisition cost of pipes, and the constraints are determined from hydraulic parameters as length of irrigation laterals and total head loss permitted. The developed analytical solution provides the ideal combination of each pipe segment length and respective diameter, resulting in a decreased of the acquisition cost.

Powder flow criteria for design of vertical silo walls

For design of vertical silos walls involving the storage of bulk solids to be safe and reliable, it is important knowing the largest possible number of variables such as: flow properties, silo geometry and pattern of flow desired. In order to validate the theories of flow prediction and design of conical hoppers, the flow properties of two bulk solids were determined, the theories of Jenike's flowability and Enstad and Walker for hopper design were analyzed and the results were compared with those experimentally obtained in a reduced model of a semicircular-section silo. Results show that Enstad theory for the hopper design is adequate to occur mass flow inside the silo, and for the sizing of the discharge outlet, the Walker's theory was closer to the appropriate than Jenike's theory, which was higher around 100% than the experimental hopper outlet.

Managing without growth : slower by design, not disaster

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