The retrieval of ice water content from radar reflectivity factor and temperature and its use in evaluating a mesoscale model

Ice clouds are an important yet largely unvalidated component of weather forecasting and climate models, but radar offers the potential to provide the necessary data to evaluate them. First in this paper, coordinated aircraft in situ measurements and scans by a 3-GHz radar are presented, demonstrating that, for stratiform midlatitude ice clouds, radar reflectivity in the Rayleigh-scattering regime may be reliably calculated from aircraft size spectra if the "Brown and Francis" mass-size relationship is used. The comparisons spanned radar reflectivity values from -15 to +20 dBZ, ice water contents (IWCs) from 0.01 to 0.4 g m(-3), and median volumetric diameters between 0.2 and 3 mm. In mixed-phase conditions the agreement is much poorer because of the higher-density ice particles present. A large midlatitude aircraft dataset is then used to derive expressions that relate radar reflectivity and temperature to ice water content and visible extinction coefficient. The analysis is an advance over previous work in several ways: the retrievals vary smoothly with both input parameters, different relationships are derived for the common radar frequencies of 3, 35, and 94 GHz, and the problem of retrieving the long-term mean and the horizontal variance of ice cloud parameters is considered separately. It is shown that the dependence on temperature arises because of the temperature dependence of the number concentration "intercept parameter" rather than mean particle size. A comparison is presented of ice water content derived from scanning 3-GHz radar with the values held in the Met Office mesoscale forecast model, for eight precipitating cases spanning 39 h over Southern England. It is found that the model predicted mean I WC to within 10% of the observations at temperatures between -30 degrees and - 10 degrees C but tended to underestimate it by around a factor of 2 at colder temperatures.

The seasonal forecast of electricity demand: A hierarchical Bayesian model with climatological weather generator

In this paper we focus on the one year ahead prediction of the electricity peak-demand daily trajectory during the winter season in Central England and Wales. We define a Bayesian hierarchical model for predicting the winter trajectories and present results based on the past observed weather. Thanks to the flexibility of the Bayesian approach, we are able to produce the marginal posterior distributions of all the predictands of interest. This is a fundamental progress with respect to the classical methods. The results are encouraging in both skill and representation of uncertainty. Further extensions are straightforward at least in principle. The main two of those consist in conditioning the weather generator model with respect to additional information like the knowledge of the first part of the winter and/or the seasonal weather forecast. Copyright (C) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Assessment of the consistency of near-infrared water vapor line intensities using high-spectral-resolution ground-based Fourier transform measurements of solar radiation

Calculations of the absorption of solar radiation by atmospheric gases, and water vapor in particular, are dependent on the quality of databases of spectral line parameters. There has been increasing scrutiny of databases such as HITRAN in recent years, but this has mostly been performed on a band-by-band basis. We report nine high-spectral-resolution (0.03 cm(-1)) measurements of the solar radiation reaching the surface in southern England over the wave number range 2000 to 12,500 cm(-1) (0.8 to 5 mm) that allow a unique assessment of the consistency of the spectral line databases over this entire spectral region. The data are assessed in terms of the modeled water vapor column that is required to bring calculations and observations into agreement; for an entirely consistent database, this water vapor column should be constant with frequency. For the HITRAN01 database, the spread in water vapor column is about 11%, with distinct shifts between different spectral regions. The HITRAN04 database is in significantly better agreement (about 5% spread) in the completely updated 3000 to 8000 cm(-1) spectral region, but inconsistencies between individual spectral regions remain: for example, in the 8000 to 9500 cm(-1) spectral region, the results indicate an 18% (+/- 1%) underestimate in line intensities with respect to the 3000 to 8000 cm(-1) region. These measurements also indicate the impact of isotopic fractionation of water vapor in the 2500 to 2900 cm(-1) range, where HDO lines dominate over the lines of the most abundant isotope of H2O.

Training drama teachers: a perspective from England

In England, drama is embedded into the National Curriculum as a part of the programmes of study for the subject of English. This means that all children aged between 5 - 16 in state funded schools have an entitlement to be taught some aspects of the subject. While the manifestation of drama in primary schools is diverse, in a great many schools for students aged between 11 – 19, drama and theatre art is taught as a discrete subject in the same way that the visual arts and music are. Students may opt for public examination courses in the subject at ages 16 and 18. In order to satisfy the specifications laid down for such examinations many schools recognise the need for specialist teachers and indeed specialist teaching rooms and equipment. This chapter outlines how drama is taught in secondary schools in England (there being subtle variations in the education systems in the other countries that make up the United Kingdom) and the theories that underpin drama’s place in the curriculum as a subject in its own right and as a vehicle for delivering other aspects of the prescribed curriculum are discussed. The paper goes on to review the way in which drama is taught articulates with the requirements and current initiatives laid down by the government. Given this context, the chapter moves on to explore what specialist subject and pedagogical knowledge secondary school drama teachers need. Furthermore, consideration is made of the tensions that may be seen to exist between the way drama teachers perceive their own identity as subject specialists and the restrictions and demands placed upon them by the education system within which they work. An insight into the backgrounds of those who become drama teachers in England is provided and the reasons for choosing such a career and the expectations and concerns that underpin their training are identified and analysed.

Validating ECMWF forecasts for the occurrence of ice supersaturation using visual observations of persistent contrails and radiosonde measurements over England

One of the largest uncertainties in quantifying the impact of aviation on climate concerns the formation and spreading of persistent contrails. The inclusion of a cloud scheme that allows for ice supersaturation into the integrated forecast system (IFS) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) can be a useful tool to help reduce these uncertainties. This study evaluates the quality of the ECMWF forecasts with respect to ice super saturation in the upper troposphere by comparing them to visual observations of persistent contrails and radiosonde measurements of ice supersaturation over England. The performance of 1- to 3-day forecasts is compared including also the vertical accuracy of the supersaturation forecasts. It is found that the operational forecasts from the ECMWF are able to predict cold ice supersaturated regions very well. For the best cases Peirce skill scores of 0.7 are obtained, with hit rates at times exceeding 80% and false-alarm rates below 20%. Results are very similar for comparisons with visual observations and radiosonde measurements, the latter providing the better statistical significance.

Domesticating the calendar: the hours and the almanac in Tudor England

This article examines two genres of text which were extremely popular in the late-medieval and early modern periods, and it pays particular attention to women users. The printed almanacs of sixteenth-century England were enormously influential; yet their contents are so formulaic and repetitive as to appear almost empty of valuable information. Their most striking feature is their astrological guidance for the reader, and this has led to them being considered 'merely' the repository of popular superstition. Only in the last decade have themes of gender and medicine been given serious consideration in relation to almanacs; but this work has focused on the seventeenth century. This chapter centres on a detailed analysis of sixteenth-century English almanacs, and the various kinds of scientific and household guidance they offered to women readers. Both compilers and users needed to chart a safe course through the religious and scientific battles of the time; and the complexities involved are demonstrated by considering the almanacs in relation to competing sources of guidance. These latter are Books of Hours and 'scientific' works such as medical calendars compiled by Oxford scholars in the late middle ages. A key feature of this chapter is that it gives practical interpretations of this complex information, for the guidance of modern readers unfamiliar with astrology.