Efficient methods for empirical tests of behavioral economics theories in laboratory and field experiments

In the quest for a descriptive theory of decision-making, the rational actor model in economics imposes rather unrealistic expectations and abilities on human decision makers. The further we move from idealized scenarios, such as perfectly competitive markets, and ambitiously extend the reach of the theory to describe everyday decision making situations, the less sense these assumptions make. Behavioural economics has instead proposed models based on assumptions that are more psychologically realistic, with the aim of gaining more precision and descriptive power. Increased psychological realism, however, comes at the cost of a greater number of parameters and model complexity. Now there are a plethora of models, based on different assumptions, applicable in differing contextual settings, and selecting the right model to use tends to be an ad-hoc process. In this thesis, we develop optimal experimental design methods and evaluate different behavioral theories against evidence from lab and field experiments.

We look at evidence from controlled laboratory experiments. Subjects are presented with choices between monetary gambles or lotteries. Different decision-making theories evaluate the choices differently and would make distinct predictions about the subjects' choices. Theories whose predictions are inconsistent with the actual choices can be systematically eliminated. Behavioural theories can have multiple parameters requiring complex experimental designs with a very large number of possible choice tests. This imposes computational and economic constraints on using classical experimental design methods. We develop a methodology of adaptive tests: Bayesian Rapid Optimal Adaptive Designs (BROAD) that sequentially chooses the "most informative" test at each stage, and based on the response updates its posterior beliefs over the theories, which informs the next most informative test to run. BROAD utilizes the Equivalent Class Edge Cutting (EC²) criteria to select tests. We prove that the EC² criteria is adaptively submodular, which allows us to prove theoretical guarantees against the Bayes-optimal testing sequence even in the presence of noisy responses. In simulated ground-truth experiments, we find that the EC² criteria recovers the true hypotheses with significantly fewer tests than more widely used criteria such as Information Gain and Generalized Binary Search. We show, theoretically as well as experimentally, that surprisingly these popular criteria can perform poorly in the presence of noise, or subject errors. Furthermore, we use the adaptive submodular property of EC² to implement an accelerated greedy version of BROAD which leads to orders of magnitude speedup over other methods.

We use BROAD to perform two experiments. First, we compare the main classes of theories for decision-making under risk, namely: expected value, prospect theory, constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) and moments models. Subjects are given an initial endowment, and sequentially presented choices between two lotteries, with the possibility of losses. The lotteries are selected using BROAD, and 57 subjects from Caltech and UCLA are incentivized by randomly realizing one of the lotteries chosen. Aggregate posterior probabilities over the theories show limited evidence in favour of CRRA and moments' models. Classifying the subjects into types showed that most subjects are described by prospect theory, followed by expected value. Adaptive experimental design raises the possibility that subjects could engage in strategic manipulation, i.e. subjects could mask their true preferences and choose differently in order to obtain more favourable tests in later rounds thereby increasing their payoffs. We pay close attention to this problem; strategic manipulation is ruled out since it is infeasible in practice, and also since we do not find any signatures of it in our data.

In the second experiment, we compare the main theories of time preference: exponential discounting, hyperbolic discounting, "present bias" models: quasi-hyperbolic (α, β) discounting and fixed cost discounting, and generalized-hyperbolic discounting. 40 subjects from UCLA were given choices between 2 options: a smaller but more immediate payoff versus a larger but later payoff. We found very limited evidence for present bias models and hyperbolic discounting, and most subjects were classified as generalized hyperbolic discounting types, followed by exponential discounting.

In these models the passage of time is linear. We instead consider a psychological model where the perception of time is subjective. We prove that when the biological (subjective) time is positively dependent, it gives rise to hyperbolic discounting and temporal choice inconsistency.

We also test the predictions of behavioral theories in the "wild". We pay attention to prospect theory, which emerged as the dominant theory in our lab experiments of risky choice. Loss aversion and reference dependence predicts that consumers will behave in a uniquely distinct way than the standard rational model predicts. Specifically, loss aversion predicts that when an item is being offered at a discount, the demand for it will be greater than that explained by its price elasticity. Even more importantly, when the item is no longer discounted, demand for its close substitute would increase excessively. We tested this prediction using a discrete choice model with loss-averse utility function on data from a large eCommerce retailer. Not only did we identify loss aversion, but we also found that the effect decreased with consumers' experience. We outline the policy implications that consumer loss aversion entails, and strategies for competitive pricing.

In future work, BROAD can be widely applicable for testing different behavioural models, e.g. in social preference and game theory, and in different contextual settings. Additional measurements beyond choice data, including biological measurements such as skin conductance, can be used to more rapidly eliminate hypothesis and speed up model comparison. Discrete choice models also provide a framework for testing behavioural models with field data, and encourage combined lab-field experiments.

Temporal confinement and enhancement of high-order harmonic emission with a synthesized laser field

We demonstrated that a synthesized laser field consisting of an intense long (45 fs, multi-optical-cycle) laser pulse and a weak short (7 fs, few-optical-cycle) laser pulse can control the electron dynamics and high-order harmonic generation in argon, and generate extreme ultraviolet supercontinuum towards the production of a single strong attosecond pulse. The long pulse offers a large amplitude field, and the short pulse creates a temporally narrow enhancement of the laser field and a gate for the highest energy harmonic emission. This scheme paves the way to generate intense isolated attosecond pulses with strong multi-optical-cycle laser pulses.

Phase-matching control of high-order harmonic generation in a two-color laser field

The phase-matching condition of high-order harmonic generation driven by intense few-cycle pulses could be controlled by adding second-harmonic pulses to change the ionization fraction of the gaseous medium. The harmonic generation efficiency could be improved by moving the phase-matching point with an all-optical control of the ionization fraction or a proper change of the confocal parameter. A specific order of harmonics could be easily controlled to reach phase matching at a fixed higher gas pressure by adding second-harmonic pulses with a suitable intensity. Such an all-optical phase-matching control was demonstrated to be dependent upon the temporal delay between the fundamental-wave and second harmonic pulses.

Generation of an extreme ultraviolet supercontinuum in a two-color laser field

We theoretically investigate the high-order harmonic generation in a helium atom with a two-color optical field synthesized by an intense 6 fs pulse at 800 nm and a relatively weak 21.3 fs pulse at 400 nm. When the frequency-doubled pulse is properly time shifted with respect to the fundamental pulse, an ultrabroad extreme ultraviolet supercontinuum spectrum with a 148 eV spectral width can be generated which directly creates an isolated 65 as pulse even without phase compensation. We explain this extraordinary phenomenon by analyzing maximum electron kinetic energies at different return times.

Three-dimensional superconformal field theory, Chern-Simons theory, and their correspondence

In this thesis, we discuss 3d-3d correspondence between Chern-Simons theory and three-dimensional N = 2 superconformal field theory. In the 3d-3d correspondence proposed by Dimofte-Gaiotto-Gukov information of abelian flat connection in Chern-Simons theory was not captured. However, considering M-theory configuration giving the 3d-3d correspondence and also other several developments, the abelian flat connection should be taken into account in 3d-3d correspondence. With help of the homological knot invariants, we construct 3d N = 2 theories on knot complement in 3-sphere for several simple knots. Previous theories obtained by Dimofte-Gaiotto-Gukov can be obtained by Higgsing of the full theories. We also discuss the importance of all flat connections in the 3d-3d correspondence by considering boundary conditions in 3d N = 2 theories and 3-manifold.